The road to full time
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@martin-walker no, my reasons for the game was for spurs to score the 2nd half goal. If they are leading then they lack a need to score. Yes west brom would be more open, but given the difference in quality between the two teams when it comes to say the 85 min are spurs just going to kill the game and pass about thats a risk and im trying to limit risks. Also if all things were the same and spurs 1-0 up at say 65 mins then thats just a game that a goal came too early and move on. Plenty of other games. Dont go against your initial plan. Add up over a month all the ones you stuck to the plan with and those outwith and you will more often than not from my own experience be far more profitable with your planned trades. So stick to the scorelines you pre planned. In my case 0-0/1-0/1-1/2-1 this way spurs have an incentive to score.
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If everything was the same but spurs were already 1-0 up would you of potentially traded this game
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@darri Thanks for posting, nice to read how people approach there trades
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Trade Breakdown: West brom vs Tottenham
Pre match selection:
West brom last 3 home games have given clues to the rest of season already. 0-0 against burnley, but when up against potential top 6 teams they have conceded 3 goals both against chelsea and leicester.
Spurs on the other hand came into this winning all 3 away games. Beating burnley, man utd and southampton.
Form tells us Spurs are in form and west brom have stuttered there way into the season so far.
When it comes to these matchups i tend to focus heavily on the team i expect to score. So for this ill now turn and have a look at the key players for spurs.Key players research:
I chose this game because it will resonate with many traders or football fans. But really you should be finding out this knowledge with any size of team be it a prem side or a swedish side. The same principles matter.
Spurs have scored, 18 goals this season before the match. Kane scoring 6 and 8 assists (77% contribution to all team goals) Son has scored 8 and 2 assists (55% of all team goals). Now obviously some of the goals between them will have been assisting the other. But when you then look at the rest of team the nearest goal contributor is Aurier with 1 goal 1 assist (11%). As you can see without these 2 in the team the pre match stats we all looked at wouldnt work out.
People who are using pre match stats to judge if a game should be traded must be factoring in key players and who is contributing most to them, otherwise it becomes inaccurate data.The plan:
This game wasnt filtered to me, but if it was its the exact same process. Now we write down somewhere our plan for the game. Is it a LCS, FHG, ov 2.5, comeback etc.
For me im looking at this game for a late goal. So for this to work i need the scores to be in favour of spurs needing to get a goal. So 0-0/1-0/1-1/2-1. For me i dont typically go anymore than that as those games are unpredictable and performing above average already.
I need Kane and Son to be playing but given their individual contribution either would be enough.
I then need inplay to be in favour of spurs dominating.
Ill watch the match from half time. If im seeing spurs attacking and looking lively then it supports all the points above so i would then inplay judge if price is value before placing.Inplay:
Personal preference here, i find im able to judge trades best when im watching games and with late goal trades i only watch the 2nd half, couldnt care less what happened in the first with stats or chances etc. However i know some people get over invested when watching the match and might just be trigger happy with small chances, just using inplay stats would be your better option if that was your case.
What im looking for here is expected goals chances/clear cut chances. Not long range efforts or tight angle shots. Efforts when a defender has had to block, keeper to save, hit woodwork or had a shot within the V of the goal.Here is the inplay stats at HT:
Not looking like a game to get involved with. But like i said i dont care what happened 1st half chances wise. Spurs not creating anything.
Here is what it looks after the 2nd half:
Massive difference. We can see spurs really upped it in the 2nd half and dominated.
Trade or No trade?
So all things pointed to spurs getting in the game. Key players both on the pitch. Spurs looked more likely to score backing up our pre match research. Chances inplay were good, with a good few efforts id have expected kane and co to have troubled keeper with.
Now THE biggest part, the price. We have outlined above why we now like this as a trade. But for us to win long term we need to add price. Price is king! Now typically with the big teams you have poor value price all the way through. However with some matches you can spot a good price so never rule it out.
I managed to get 1.75 to back ov0.5 on 70 mins, typically this will be the average price for my trades so given i have a strong fav to score this presents value to me. Basically when i look at a price calculate that into a % chance. Did i think there would be a 60%(profit after commission at this ratio) that a goal was coming, given all the points above i did. If say kane or son had come off in that time i would not have entered. Instead spurs lumped on two more attacking players to aid the threat. Factor the price in with my strike rate of my overall trades this was a good price.
So the LCS/Back next goal is matched. For most this is when you sit back and wait for a goal. For me with it being 0-0 i kept looking as i trade the LTD. For this its just looking to see if spurs consistently attack and look even more likely to score than they did 5-10 mins before when i placed the first trade.Result:
Kane (key player research) scorred in the 87th min to win on both the LCS and LTD.
When you look at all of this and think its overwhelming. Its not. It takes me 5 mins to do this research. Even less if its a game from a filter. Do this for every game and youll start to score off those games that dont fit this criteria. Zoning in on the quality picks. Now your still not going to win every game but as traders we are looking to limit risk. By doing these steps we go from a punt to a well thought out trade/value bet.I hope this shows how i go from a trade on paper to an actual trade. There are plenty videos of people talking about each section which makes people think its harder and longer to do than normal but its really just 5-10 mins of sitting down before a game. Any questions just ask
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@pedro-lerma hi buddy, i think you have me muddled up with bottlabroon. He does those strategies that your referring to.
Im very much just a Late goal trader. Slowly adding to the portfolio now, took all of last year out of anything else just to focus on late goals and to build my full time bank. For the spreadhseets, the LCS are backs of the next goals. So if 0-0 i would back the ov0.5 goals market and so on for the different scorelines. I typically like to have odds of at least 1.6 for entry but as you have spotted i do average 1.77 for the overall strategy which given the strike rate builds a nice steady return every month. If the current score is a draw, then 5-10 mins after iv placed the LCS trade if the game is still lively and the key players are still on the pitch id enter a LTD trade normally looking for odds of 1.6 to lay for the draw. When a goal goes in i green up. I dont try to think of them as same game trades. For me they are two different strategies that can be monitored separately. But its nice when they both win.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
An update on November and conclusion to the weeks trades.
Thanks for sharing Darri.
11% for a week is great; cricket boost some.
I counted a 1.77odds AVG on football this week on your spreadSheet. Not bad, i thought you aimed big odds 2.4s,2.8s3.5s,etc, cause i read that you aimed for 0.50move(tiks) when Ov2.5. Seeing this, I suposed that is just for Ov2.5strat, and for SHG is a 1.77AVG.Are you using your updated 2.5 strat? I remember that you enter FH Ov2.5 at some point(odds above 2), aiming to scratch if a goal came at FH or decide let it run a little bit.
Is that right? Still active that strat?Question: Those 0-0 on spreadSheet(mainTradingresults) meaning a LTD trade? If not; do you use any criteria to decided go for SHG or LTD on those 0-0?
Cheers. Great novemberStart Darri.
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An update on November and conclusion to the weeks trades.
Cricket: +4.47 points
One game left in the ipl really looking forward to it. 2 best teams throughout have made it to the final. Best balanced teams too. Will be an interesting game to trade hopefully a few swings in the market. These last 2 weeks has been golden for me in terms of adapting to a new sport to trade. Taking my discipline from the football trading and easing into the cricket is something i didnt think would be this good so early. Still defensive with when to exit, but i think the last 6-7 games have been better judged. Once the ipl is over ill need to see whats on offer next. Internationals end of the month and other comps to come. Hopefully i can continue to use a par score method as well as i have done. I hope those that have used the guide found it helpful i know a few members have been using it. Longer formats will be easier to post trades up as t20 price flip flop too quick for a post.
Football: +6.26 points
New odds for my 2.5 goals will mean ill need to monitor the performance closer to end of month to get a reel feel for how they are doing. As with all things you have to let the strategies breathe and have their losing runs but long term they should come good.
LCS has been solid. Few mistakes but with most of the leagues now popping on the filter it will be more filter focussed. Mind you i think looking at my sheets i make more from the pre selected games than on the filters.
LTDs coming good this month. These are my favourite trades long term. In the future with banks growing this may become my main football trade. Right now its compliments my game selections of the lcs strat so both working well together. My LTD is more aggressive than what you see elsewhere on the forum or online but getting on at these prices brings less pressure than those far higher. Please look at this for all those new traders. Its not about have a huge +80% strike rate filters or strategies is only the profit per trade and strike rate combined that matter. There is a deep desire to be right more often for alot of people but there are some cracking strategies once you get confidence in the better prices and late game odds. Hopefully im proving that for you.
FHG project is still ticking away. Ill do a big update on it after 100 if it matches what i hope it does itll be getting odds tested next batch.Conclusion: +11.00 points/11%
Nice start to november. We now enter a international break. So trading will be very selective the next few weeks. Hopefully we come back and carry on with the good progress made. One week and +11 points is a great return. The introduction of cricket is helping top up our football nicely. I did question if it would be this quick to be making such profit from it but nice to see. Like i said in the football. Look at my strike rate and odds. Dont just pick a strategy because of high win rates but low rewards. Test more advanced strategies too. By that i mean higher odds if backing and lower if laying. Noticed a few cracking additions to the forum and seems they employ nice risk reward ratios also.
As ever any questions just ask. If there are things you would like to see or for me to explain just ask Have a good november guys and take it easy of the international break. Ill be posting when games qualify as ever. I hope me showing full accountability and all my trades is helping. Really liked garys comment the other day and i hope others like this approach too.
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Couple of updates to come. Just going to show the weekends trades and update on the cricket.
Cricket:
This was a bit of a lightbulb moment and its probably because iv been growing confidence in my trading thought when it comes to cricket. I laid DC at 1.14 when it looked like SRH were coming for a battle of a chase. I planned on exiting once it hit a nice number and get out before wickets tumbled. I got a nice cashed out green after a few overs had multiple boundaries. The issue is because it wasnt my standard type of trade i never fully staked. So capped potential profit there. And as luck goes, i fully staked my next couple of trades and felt a bit jumpy rather than my usual positional trades. Ill save the updated summary of cricket trading for the next post. But today could have been a sizeable profit had i fully staked my winning move. We learn.
Football:
Alot of trades for me today slightly more than usual. A few from the filters and a few games i watched to see for opps. Set and forgets reducing in performance but still ok for november. New odds will start to kick in come end of the month in terms of performance.
LCS in the leicester and helsingborg games both losing. I had expected a 2nd in both because of how i thought the match would play out. leicester and goteborg both managing the games well and passing time. Both games died out. Helsingborg missed a sitter in the last kick and could have been another winner.
Arsenal was an opportunity FHG trade. Watching the game, villa looked dangerous and not just defending. Arsenal not quite their usual passing self and villa ended up making this trade a winner.
A few other LCS trades but the best one of the night was ac milan vs verona. 1-2 down with 15 mins to go. They were all over them. A goal seemed inevitable. Verona could have scored themselves too. Calabria getting a goal ruled out in the 91st min made me think it wasnt going to win. Up steps Zlatan. Capping off a great night and a good 1st week in november. -
nothing today qualifying. Will see what sunday brings. I hope this is a reminder that you don't need to trade every game on a filter
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@finn-kristensen how are you staking for the FHG's? Interested in your entry points etc
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Nice solid start november has been so far, if we can get a decent weekend before the break i will be really happy with the months trades so far.
Football:
Cardiff a goal down and the pre match stats for this was great. I liked how cardiff went about the first half and felt a goal would come. Went in with a back of 1.5 goals for 1.75 around 68 mins. Loss but no complaints with the trade, game was nicely balanced.
Set and forget on the ross county game only just missing out. Odds tweaked on that as 2.0 keeps getting matched so no point in not upping them at this stage.
Wanted a bit of momentum going into weekend but couldnt have asked much more from the trades. No other games caught my eye.Cricket:
Best game of the ipl trading wise for me. Not my biggest win but all trades working within. Backed SRH at 1.3 when RCB only had AB left. The only reason the odds werent shorter was because of him, with a small total and crumbling wickets felt he would have to take risks. He got out and odds crumbled so made a nice green going into the chase. Waited to see if SRH could get a decent powerplay before looking to scalp. They didnt and a couple wickets fell. Not quite sure warner actually was out strange decision surely not conclusive enough to give him out. I wasnt complaining tho this brought the SRH odds out and i was just waiting for a partnership to build before jumping on. Holder and williamson came good in that regard. I got on at 1.87 and and just let it run. I couldnt believe the odds on offer given the score and the amount of wickets left. Speaking to a member about it and i was super chuffed with the massive over reactions in the markets. probably my best traded game so far. Nice that the cricket is building momentum. Only started to trade t20 2 weeks ago.
Only a few games left in the ipl, but see there are plenty internationals to come. Next few weeks could be quite quiet for trading. See what pops up. Let me know if you have any questions guys and have a good and safe weekend, dont overtrade
Remember to view the sheets below regarding certain odds etc had someone ask me that earlier
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@finn-kristensen top stuff mate, keep me updated with how you get on bud, hopefully ill be able to do a detailed analysis on the FHG end of year if we get enough qualified. Got a couple other things being tested for football right now so hopefully will allow people to pick and choose what they prefer.
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@finn-kristensen great to hear your going to give it a shot mate. is the FHG strategy you are trying the FHG project from here? How has your trading been over the summer?
Yes, I intend to use the FHG filter as the basis for selecting matches but I only enter actual trades if the IP stats (or pictures) suggest a goal is coming, plus I always check for important players at first. Same approach is used for the SHG filter. Overall my P&L hasn't been great post-lockdown but tbh I haven't been so detailed until recently - like you said, just following a system blindly is not the best way.
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@finn-kristensen great to hear your going to give it a shot mate. is the FHG strategy you are trying the FHG project from here? How has your trading been over the summer?
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@finn-kristensen i know your not but dont over rely on a filter. Make sure your trading every game on its merits. My filters are so basic, i like to be able to find games manually if the stats are down. I think the stats software can help with edges and i do use it all the time but dont just do garys filter, try find ones that can also be done manually as actually they tend to be the best ones. My 2nd half goal filter is so basic yet has around a 86% strike rate over the last year. That filter people go on about isnt new and there are many like it. It is solid for filtering games if it has a 87% strike rate but please dont just go well its on the filter so i must trade it. Use it only to filter games then decide using the ways iv talked about before to then cut down them to the good ones.
I did a post the other week about this and hopefully it sticks with a few people that there is more money to be made treating each game on its merits rather than relying solely on a system
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@darri said in The road to full time:
@finn-kristensen yep thats the FHG project filter. Are you tracking it with a wider selection of leagues than the ones i posted?
European fixtures/cup games you have to do manual research. For the two games yesterday. AC milan have a 4/5 FHG and have started seria a well. They had a strong lineup too zlatan and co, which for a europa league game is a must to research as not all teams care about the comp. Then i took that inplay and watched the first 10 mins. The odds for FHG were good. Celtic managed to break apart lilles defence and thought ac would too. Liked what i saw and entered. Just happened that lille bossed the game
Celtic was more stats based. They have had a FHG in a long run of games and so have sparta. Sparta have been hit by injuries and celtic were missing two key defenders, so i thought goals were likely. Edouard was back for them too.So a bit of both really. There is no set way i trade the european games, just take my info inplay and if it looks lively id enter. I also had rangers game on sheet but odds never reached what i wanted. But you cant go wrong with applying the same logic of the domestic with the european games. That way you can get rid of poor games.
Thanks for the explanation, Darri. Haven't been doing a lot lately but intend to be more involved again and a good FHG system is a good addition to Gary's SHG filter. I have tested my own SHG filters for a long period but none of them are as good as Gary's.
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@finn-kristensen yep thats the FHG project filter. Are you tracking it with a wider selection of leagues than the ones i posted?
European fixtures/cup games you have to do manual research. For the two games yesterday. AC milan have a 4/5 FHG and have started seria a well. They had a strong lineup too zlatan and co, which for a europa league game is a must to research as not all teams care about the comp. Then i took that inplay and watched the first 10 mins. The odds for FHG were good. Celtic managed to break apart lilles defence and thought ac would too. Liked what i saw and entered. Just happened that lille bossed the game
Celtic was more stats based. They have had a FHG in a long run of games and so have sparta. Sparta have been hit by injuries and celtic were missing two key defenders, so i thought goals were likely. Edouard was back for them too.So a bit of both really. There is no set way i trade the european games, just take my info inplay and if it looks lively id enter. I also had rangers game on sheet but odds never reached what i wanted. But you cant go wrong with applying the same logic of the domestic with the european games. That way you can get rid of poor games.
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@darri Hi Darri - how do you select your FHG trades?
You previously shared this filter:
However, cup matches won't be selected by the filter so I imagine you base the selections on other criteria? Is it basically using the same criteria (applied manually, although it will be based on mixed leagues) and then checking for important players?
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Really solid day
Football:
FHGs in both the AC Milan and Celtic games coming good. Reason for the entry was both home teams playing as close to full strength as possible. AC and Lille started their seasons well and thought it would have goals in it. Celtic playing without ajer or julien was always going to be a defensive nightmare.
LCS of celtic when they went 1-2 late in the 2nd half. Griffiths coming on and celtic reverting to a back three to try push for an equaliser was far too open. Sparta played the ball into good areas all night opening up celtic every attack. Probably the safest trade iv made this week.
What pains me is im writing this yet im a Celtic fan for those that dont already know , profiting at my own clubs defensive efforts. Still celtic are a good team to trade in europe and that will continue on.Cricket:
This im pleased with. Feel like the whole tournament so far was building knowledge and improving on individual trading angles. It seemed to make todays trade a sensible one. MI looked set to post a whopper of a score after 10 overs. Yet stuttered to a 122 after 15 overs. But when pollard was caught cheaply the price rose to 2.0, i felt as if the market wasnt thinking about the total they had already amassed and still had the two pandyas and a settled kishan. Jumping on that and within 2 overs it shot down to 1.48. Taking liability out i decided ill leave the green on MI until the next wicket, came quicker than id hoped but a nice green to take into the chase. MI went onto hammer home a 200 score with hardik pandya and kishan scoring for fun. Could have got a bigger profit but happy with the trade. No other events happened and was an easy victory for MI who look such a well balanced team.
Tomorrows game looks like a cracker and hopefully can end the ipl strongly.Conclusion:
Much better from last weeks thursday far better selections and cricket going strong still. Keeping stakes modest on it but i can feel confidence growing with each trade and each trading decision is far clearer in my mind at each stage, something i think will be even more suited to ODIs and Test. Weekend to go and then internationals so hopefully get a nice cushion this weekend.
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@ryan-carruthers its less simple than waiting for a set price similar to the average price you would get from the split. Iv said all i think about it and explained your question in the post. If it works for you then great i just personally dont see the risk reward being as good long term.