The road to full time
-
@darri hi mate, what sort of odds have you been getting at half time for SHG ? Is it around 1.2 or you getting better ? I know it differs for certain leagues but just wondered what you've been finding ?
-
@liam-willis cheers mate, its probably the most basic strategy iv ever traded but its about the long term growth. Obviously given the risk/reward im just aiming to average upwards as there will be times when a couple losses happen in a row. Always think of batches of trades rather than a live ticker of each individual. For example look at the start of these first 3 trades i only got 1 right. I was in a red position for the week going into the weekend, but then the whole batch and my true strike rate came good. Thats how to measure these. Since we are doing something similar feel free to bounce ideas mate.
The good thing is im still doing the late goals strategy and thats why i feel safe doing these because i know last 2 years they have been solid enough to help with any downswings these basic trades will have.
-
@darri great to see you back mate i have been collecting data for doing the exact same thing so will be interesting to follow this. This is all about trusting the strike rate, starting off on a good run is great for confidence in the strategy.
-
@oliver-moore yeah the transparency is something i think helps more than just me rambling about trading. If you click on the 2021 results link at the top or the link under my posts it show what odds iv taken for every trade. So a mix really of safe and higher priced odds. The odds you take are relative to your strike rate and if your beating it more often than not then your profiting.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Ht0rtR4IlgajYwJwscfa1ujg-bLhNW2nsECAqTfCnvE/edit?usp=sharing
-
Inspiring stuff. Love the transparency of this Darri, just shows what’s possible.
I’m assuming you’re backing at fairly skinny odds but with absolute confidence in your strike rate. -
END of week update:
Cracking start to this even after a iffy start to the week. The 2 football strategies performing well and managed to bag a blinding run of wins over the weekend to help flip us back into profit. People are gonna ask why not focus on putting more money on the lates? Well actually its about spreading risk and max loss. I predict there will be more variance with the lates so i cant risk as much. Whereas the SHGs data only are more about consistent wins over time. Im hoping that they both complement each other. Lets just see how it goes when there is a bad run at some stage.
Bank Update:
Start = £1k
New bank = £1,289
A full week of football is coming before the break and hoping to press on and make march a good stepping stone month to the bank. noticed quite a few of the regulars seem to be quiet or have left, maybe it people heading back to work after covid but hope everyone is well.
-
Got this going into the last round. Just the same way i did the ones last year too. Its ashame this is the only market you can really trade the golf, liquidity in the others makes it hard to trade rather than bet. Interesting last round, may get involved in the drama of it or just let it run, these 2 fought it out just earlier this month also, weird. Dangers outwith lurk tho so was safer to get a free bet position than hold on. -
2021 is going to be a stepping stone year in my trading. I feel like its a year to really find what i want to focus firmly on and manage myself best. Iv been reading a fair few blogs of pro traders and spotted a few things i like that i want to adopt. I really like the angle of a trading year schedule. Having structure in trading and building discipline will really help me in my pursuit of efficiency. So i have to take a view of what sports allow for such a thing.
My plan:
Cricket:
I never expected the type of results i managed to achieve end of last year and start of this. I see loads of cricket being played right now and while id love to dedicate time to it actually its the least efficient of the lot due to how long trades can be open for. Im not really a scalper for these longer formats. I love scalping and taking value positions in T20 however. So the plans are to only targets them. IPL, BBL and WC T20 are my targets. This will allow me to plan ahead and be able to focus in on them without outside data. I often find that with football sometimes my overall data/results can seep into my way of thinking and carpet some leagues/games/comps with the same view. I think cricket should be based on each individual game/tournament. This will help build consistency for years to come as these events typically happen same time every year and are well spread out.Football:
My trading has moved a fair bit since the start of this blog. While my late goals strategy is still the same i have found that ill be trading less games to the average before. Primarily because im adding way more data focus towards them. Less dependant on pure inplay. I explained in a previous post why i think inplay focus is the key to how quickly i managed to grow my bank but now with other things going on i want to reap the rewards of the knowledge iv built on the markets. You will have spotted me entering into some games alot earlier than before its just a test that i ran for a while and i feel its averaging over a year a steady amount of points/bank growth. This will be my backbone to all my trading. So late goals and SHGs are the goto still but just less demand on them in terms of screen time and more data driven.Horse racing:
Yes you read that right and for newer readers it will come out of the blue. However when i first joined btc i was already trading football and horses. The reason i stopped trading horses was less about the trades and more my emotion towards it. Horse racing was what my old gambling problem evolved around. So my sentiment towards horse racing was always a strain. Now that im in a better headspace i feel i can move back and rebuild. With the software on its way id like to build up some market knowledge again. Im not coming into horse racing naively. Its a tough nut to crack. Now i could just trade from someone's strategy but as iv always said to people you learn best when you try for yourself. So having spent most of the day stalking john on the horse racing thread iv come up with a strategy looking at some of his key highlighted posts. Taking inspiration from his and charles points on trading hopefully give me a good base to work from. Iv added a sheet for tracking purely testing just looking at race profiles and seeing if it fits. Pretty tight criteria, my variables arent shown but hopefully once the software is available i can share it with people that way rather than showing the sheet of criteria for the strategy, but its less about how well this performs and more about understanding the markets again having been away from it for a while.Why these 3? Football is data driven now so im trading far less matches and those games that do make it without a goal come 65-70mins im only watching those for 5-10 mins so the screen time is minimal compared to before.
Cricket is only a handful of tournaments but in tight clusters. So when that is on the others can take less focus.
Horse racing because well bet angel
once i build enough knowledge of the type of strategy i want im hoping to apply it to the trading software.If other sports present opportunities ill still enter but only if i feel its a very good trading angle. While its quiet over summer with trading expect to see a few other sports scattered around as im always looking for value trades/swings.
So as you can see this new way of thinking has a very nice structure and is so flexible. Basically the plan is to be able to look on a monday what is coming ahead and just plan when and where to trade. I can then also be flexible when other things outside of trading comes up because i can just pick and choose what to actually trade. I for a long time have been a bit of a slave to trading. Yes its grown my bank to allow me these things but with this new phase and almost a fresh start im making sure my previous mistakes are corrected.
Just a small
update to what my trading is going to look like over the next year or as id like to call it the stepping stone year where i find out what sort of trader im wanting to be in a better more efficient way to previous. -
Seems I got onboard at the perfect time to follow this new phase of yours mate
Looking forward to it! -
Appreciate the messages guys! Looking forward to the next wee while before summer trading properly starts
@james-everard sensible at times
the rest is debatable -
Great to have you back Darri. Glad is all going well for you.
-
@darri look forward to following this mate
-
Hi Darri
Great to see you back mate. You really inspire me with your blogs, i like how you have such a sensible head on relatively young shoulders( coming from a miserable middle aged man lol).
My mentality has improved greatly in the last couple of months and my trading is so much better, which i have to thank yourself and Eamon for greatly.
Look forward to reading your posts and trading journal with interest -
Seems like a plan it’s probably a bankroll level most of us can relate too.
Will follow with interest, I learnt a lot from you since I joined in may
-
Right so actually a pretty major update to post. There is a reason I choose yesterday to come back. As iv bored people about recently iv been investing in other projects outside of trading using my betfair profits. However iv recently not just used the profits but pretty much all of my trading bank towards it. This will allow me to not only support myself for rest of year but pt me in a very good position to aim for the retire by 40 angle. Im 28 and i plan to be financially safe come 40. So financial update sorted where does this leave me with trading?
Im more or less starting again. Iv left £1000 for betfair trading. From this point on betfair is just part of my passive income streams. Ideally in the long term its becomes enough that its the only one i use for personal use. Right now tho its going to be used for all the fun stuff i get upto. Holidays, subscriptions etc.
This is a decision iv taken and actually its a good place to restart being a consistent poster on here again. What i plan to do go back to the origins of what this blog did. Showed my actual trading progress rather than it just be me posting tips and guides. Iv always been someone who learns more from people doing the activity rather than just talking about it.
So you can expect live trades on the football thread, dont get cross if im posting a game someone else has already posted im doing it for transparency reasons. This way those that are following along can do my exact trades (youll always get better prices than me given i only post once im entered). Ill then do a run down each week on this blog showing the progress made. In those updates ill show the actual bank progress as well as how each strategy performed via points. This way people get to see both sides of the measuring success (actual bank figure/points system). Obviously im quite vocal so yes there will still be the odd focused/detailed post but they will only come up if its a topic posted elsewhere or if i can link it to a specific example of my own trading. BTC lads have more than enough resources for those looking to start trading.
I hope this transparency helps not only you guys but myself as it clearly been a big reason iv managed to get to the situation i am in now. Aims for this year is to reach £10k. So staking will start with 10% stakes and then move to a more natural 5% for both. These are my SHG (data driven) and Late goals strategies. Late goals being a mix between data and inplay.
I hope new and old readers ill enjoy this new phase of my trading. While the goal was always to trade full time my ambitions are now fully on making as much money as possible with as much efficiency as possible. Diversifying outside of trading keeps me mentally satisfied and spreads my risk into really good industries and passive income streams.
-
Cheers lads
for those who have tried to access my trading sheets I'm going to be updating them this week. So I'll be able to open it up for everyone probably in time for weekend coming. Going to be a fresh start on them. iv planned how I'm gonna properly do this blog in a way that is both a decent read and helps me for accountability. Updates to follow -
@Darri
Good to see you back.
Glad everything is working out.
Shame about the Bluenoses...
-
@Darri welcome back brother, good to see you here again and glad to hear that the production side of things is fulfilling also. Good to have the balance mate.
-
@Darri I’m at the stage now we’re I’m having to be systematic but that doesn’t mean trading every game on my filter as I’m sticking to certain scorelines and obviously only getting involved if odds present value, seems to be working for me and the stress it’s taken out of the whole thing has been a godsend....having said that learning the bits about research and in play etc has been and will be invaluable to me when I have more time to spend on my trading. Good luck with your refined approach mate hope it works out for you
