The road to full time
-
End of week update:
For transparency and for those who traded some of the games i posted here are the results for past 2 weeks since iv been back. Bare in mind this isnt the full time bank anymore starting with £1k as iv invested most of my money into other ventures. Now tho trading can be its on separate income again.
Massive swings over the course of 2 weeks leaves me underwhelmed with how well it went. Id have hoped to be sitting around 10-20 points/10-20 % bank growth right now. Some silly trades cost me. Remember its all relative to your own staking. With that in mind iv revised my own staking plan. For the data only each trades is to win just 1pt now instead of having a set liability. It will bring me to care less about the individual trades and more about strike rate, which with a volume based strategy will help. The difference in odds given my average time of entry for them is not worth haggling for. The main late goals will remain the same with fixed liability, reason for this is because odds massively differ here and each tick at that stage of match has a far bigger risk/reward element.
So nice clear path going into rest of month. Int break will mean no data trades but ill still be late goal hunting for the home nations. Ill also be trying to get back in the groove with the cricket to build up for the ipl next month. Ill do what i did before and give a summary of why i traded each game for it as it really helped me understand why i was entering for each game. Made stacks last year from both the ipl and bbl by doing that.
Anyway sheets all clean slated with the new approach in pace. This should now sync well for the remainder of the year as these are currently all i plan to trade and these are the new rules for them too. In a good spot and happy with the situation now for this and my trading going forward. Doesnt surprise me the first trade in a while i focussed on lates wins
back to basics -
Following on from the last post im setting everything out so that from april we can have everything synced up with a solid base to move forward with. The SHG(data only) im planning to take only the games from the filter. Iv looked at the data and the games from the main filter only have had a 91% strike rate so the extra games iv added massively underperform. Luckily we managed to make a profit from them still. The sheets have been cleared of games pre shortlists so all my games i get involved with will be visible both on the forum and sheets. I really think transparency helps more than most. For you guys and me. I dont hide behind anything.
The lates have been solid as ever however my attention hasnt been on them as much as i should have. Let a few slip away which went on to win which isnt like me. Usually im good at focussing around these and im most efficient with them.
The rest of the sheets have been clean slated to help sync up to the new plans. This way im showing all my trades. It will help me to manage personally as ill be on here less and itll be easier for me to keep this a bit easier to read/follow. Really want to revert the focus back towards this blog being about tracking my own stuff rather than some learning tool. There is a btc academy for that stuff. So fully focussed on just sharing my journey again and not taking things so serious
Going to be a quiet few weeks anyway with int break. But like the situation im in now. Feel like i sometimes forget this forum isnt a job
i should use it the way i want to. For me the things ill be posting from now on are reverting back the the roots of it all and building a bank my way. Just documenting the process. Keeps me in check with my trades for accountability and if its helps anyone along the way then great. Think i derailed from that plan once i got to a good stage with trading. -
Realising im taking up most of the football thread with these data only trades. What i think ill do is post up my watchlist and set scorelines, then update them at the end of the day. Ill post them on the football thread. Then thatll mean that i can focus on posting only my late goal trades like i used to. Dont want to be posting too much and taking up too much of the thread. That way ill be able to post my best high quality picks. If i spot a game on that list that i feel is massive value to my average ill do a post but i think this way is better and easier to follow.
-
@nick-terracciano thanks mate, over the years since trading one thing has made me truly understand why this way works. Its warren buffet. I became obsessed with his and charlie mungers way of thinking. I feel like i have a modern way of thinking which compliments theirs but the same core principles apply.
Find your cirlce of competence
If you have ever watched a AGM with those guys any questions they get asked about each investment they know exactly why. Its often for a very simple reason. Im building my trading that way too. Im able to explain to people exactly why i entered that trade. Not all investments or trades are good but they are with purpose.
If your trying to have a circle of competence it becomes extremely hard if your trying to do that with 2/3/4 strategies at a time never actually getting to the advanced stage of just one thing. There is a reason why those 2 are still around and growing berkshire even more and there is a reason the best traders on this forum are still around too, its this circle of competence on mastering one strategy/one sport, those are the most common things iv spotted and im making it a necessity of my own way of trading and investing. Get good at one thing then diversify from a stable base.
-
@darri really good post, with some solid advice, I have definitely fallen into the trap of wanting to do everything at once which is not necessary or helpful.
-
Just been catching up on thread i havent read yet and came across the BOOK CLUB thread posted by dan. Straight away i saw this post lee put up (wont let me tag him for some reason):
"Think of trading - how easy is it to come on here and see that someone is doing well on one strategy and it gets your interest, then someone else is doing well on something different, and yet someone else is doing a good job and a completely different strategy, then someone on FB shows a nice green screen, then a youtube video you watch makes a strategy look like a banker? So its a great tool to have the information to hand - but if not utilised correctly with some focus applied then it can be hard to nail anything. Ive done it myself and its something i have to proactively and consciously switch off from"
Its one of the biggest things i talk about on this blog. There are so many people doing different kind of trades well and not so well. Its why i keep saying its very easy to find a profitable strategy, there are loads on here but its about mastering the ones that you can manage. That could mean set and forget style, scalping etc. They all demand a certain amount of time and effort to get right. The more you try to master at once the harder your making it and the longer it will take. I was at that same stage and doddling along. The i took a year out and focussed only on late goals and boom suddenly my bank started to make much faster gains. If we just go on the bandwagon of everything that looks good we stretch ourselves too thin. This fits in well with my advice when i say master one strategy and give it your full focus before moving on and adding more. Broken record cause i keep repeating the same thing but even since iv come back i see the same people asking me the same stuff, then when i look they are still trying to master 2/3/4 strats at a time. I spent a full year out mastering 2nd half goals. I dont know how others are managing to do it with 3-4 at a time recording all the key data needed. Like i keep saying think of it like a job you get given one task at a time to master before gaining more responsibility why wouldn't you treat learning how to trade the same way, especially if this is something you envisage doing as a job.
Just saw that post and thought it was fantastic topic to pop on here. Focus is hard on here because new ways of thinking happen all the time as its a rising industry with new minds coming together to create things. I see that i posted a good week of 2nd half trades and soon after others are now all of a sudden doing the same. Just make sure your not hopping on trends. Yes mine is tested so i can understand why people will see this as a good way to trade but iv not shown the big data behind it, its for the same mantra BTC guys use, id rather teach than just give. The reason i do post live trades is because im trading them myself anyway and will give others a nice entry into what kind of trades people at different stages are doing, im sure there is someone doing the same trades as me but better or worse but its at least me showing examples of what i deem good trades. Strategies come and go on this forum all the time some boom and then bust. Not everyone follows up a post telling you it lost but they will when it wins, even i get fed up having to post up a losing trade update but they help show a level of transparency that i hope helps which makes me less tipster like in posts. Just make sure you test it yourself first see the ins and outs of the strategy. This way should that strategy bust your in a good position to use your knowledge to kickstart on a new strategy, you might also spot something better than the current version.
Mastering one strategy at a time isnt the be all and end all. You may at some stage move on from the strategy but at first it gives you focus. You learn so much from the first strategy you develop. In fact its why im so quick to be able to find new strategies because i can use that market/trading knowledge into the others strategies.
Bit of a rambly one this but just really resonated that post i saw and thought id explain my view and how this post was exactly my issue at first also when starting.
-
The overreact filter update:
removed all div 2 leagues apart from english championship. removed all divisions from croatia, czech, poland, romania, slovakia, slovenia.
These changes are purely liquidity based decisions. I only ever look to test things that actually will be something ill be able to trade once we hit even a modest full time bank. No point scrapping to get matched. Its why FHG was also scrapped very early on, yes when your a smaller bank its easy but long term you would have to move market to continue trading ie doing some sort of overs goal trade, which if your testing from the start kind of changes how you would view data. Just a quick update as i know couple people at least are following this already which is decent to see.
-
@daniel-mills its not about the price that made it a red flag more the score. 0-0 for that game should have been avoided from my data. the fact it was 1.4 and on my list was actually the reason i traded it, silly trade, just happy to take a step back from it and go yes i was wrong and wont do that again
-
@darri Think that cardiff game was about 1.4 at half time. Would you consider that a red flag then?
-
Interesting few days. Its always good after a couple of losing days to see if any irregularities affected your results. 3 spring to my mind, the wolves vs liverpool game, the real madrid vs atalanta game and cardiff vs stoke.
Wolves vs liverpool:
This game wasnt on my filter it was picked purely because i felt a goal was coming. I watched the first half. Now heres the thing, there is a massive difference between my late goal inplay style when all i care about is how the 2nd half plays. Its evident that approach works as its the backbone to my trading achievement. But this new strategy in which im entering early is based purely off data and i got complacent. I let opinion cloud that trade and paid for it.Real madrid vs atalanta:
it won but again on reflection it presented more risk than i gave it at the time. The european games are and have always been the most profitable leagues/cups i trade. I know not all traders like them but i do and without them i would not have been as profitable they are gold mines if done well simply because of the lack of data. I had down however: enter only if 0-0 or if atalanta have a lead. Now i didnt stick to this and while it won im disappointed in my chain of thoughts and ill discipline.Cardiff vs Stoke:
The only game from these that actually came from a filter. This time suckered by the price. The scoreline for this league doesnt suit the strategy. But i traded it anyway. Again letting opinion/greed creep in. Now while this game should have had a goal it doesnt matter, it went against my proven data and it lost.So thats 3 games within the last 8 from looking back that went against my historical tracking of the strategy/trading plan. Even the guys who make consistent profits can have bad trades. Especially when you go against your own plans. Stick to them and remain DISCIPLINED, cant stress that enough. If i take those games out it takes away a winner but 2 losses. Its honestly that simple. For me thats the whole thing im trying to do this year. Make everything more simple so that i can repeat it again and again. Yes it wont make as much profit as when i was very granular but its about doing consistent things.
Just wanted to jot this down for myself and to show my thought process of what i do after a couple losing days just to make sure it doesnt get on top of me, and to keep reminding myself that it works and i am still in good control of things. I think managing yourself is the key to all of this. Yes it takes a while to build a strategy and is a grind, but iv done that part now and got the bank i wanted from it. Now its about making sure im setup for the long game. I often feel like people think im some trading freak who does everything right and has good luck. Actually i feel im good at finding good strategies and getting them to become consistently profitable. What im not yet there with is the whole mental side of trading. Thats why this blog continues. Iv still much to learn and enjoy sharing that journey even sharing the mistakes. For me im often a bad listener when its about improving my stuff so for me to learn i need to experience it before it truly clicks. I keep re reading stuarts thread actually as a reminder at times the long plays are often the most fruitful.
-
First games have hit the 2 testing strategies/filters. Think the columns and inputs are hopefully easy to understand. As im quite a basic data guy i dont like having my sheets look to complicated. I prefer the more obvious data. As we go along and more games appear ill show some updates. I prefer smaller tweaks as we go along so for me a nice start will be at around 100 games we will have a look and see any majorly obvious stuff we can tweak. Similar to the FHG project we did when we converted a strategy from 67% from first test all the way to 78% in the 2nd batch just by a subtle change.
Noticed a steady stream of people are viewing the sheets regularly today which is great to see. Any questions just ask. Remember this is just to show how to test and build a strategy from my point of view. Do not trade these yet. Also do not give up if first batch doesnt look like being profitable i dont think any of my stuff stated profitable at first before i tweaked it.
-
Added a sheet called react extra, just makes everything much neater. This way we can compare pre match unders to inplay. So what would have happened if we placed a lay pre match compared the inplay after a goal. As you can see when games have had no goal inside 20 mins i delete them from the main sheet and keep them on the extra sheet to easily compare. This will make analysing in the future better as opens more doors and so im not actually deleting good data we are collecting for free. I hate clumpy sheets and prefer things to be nice and simple with zero complex data. Im a simple bloke
-
Had a few people interested in what ppt stands for in my sheets. Its profit per trade. So profit divided by trades. I want to find a nice balance between trades and profit. Sounds silly because overall profit is what counts, but so does time. Iv found it really negatively affects me mentally when im all consumed in trading. The money is great but outside of trading ie normal life you are taking away time from that when stuck at a screen trading. So the aim for me is to just log in to btc in the morning/night and see whats ahead for the day to come. Then pick and choose and plan my day.
To do that im wanting to use ppt. It will allow me to see where im best putting my money to. Now im not blindly following it but its a nice metric for me to see if a strategy has a good enough edge. The reason i came to think of using this metric is when i was analysing stuarts LTD. Its a set and forget and has a proven history. All iv done is gone through the leagues i liked from his list and used this. Ill be using the metric for the rest of year and thne hopefully come end of year review ill know from all my strategies what is the most efficient and go with them into 2022
-
So this issue keeps cropping up that i see on the forum and when people message asking for advice. That common theme is tracking/recording trades and what to actually do next with it. Iv done projects in the past to help this but iv never completed it because its always been a market im not interested in or something i wouldnt use myself. So lets try a new strategy that isnt the bog standard. I could easily just do a rundown of my own current stuff but then i wont get a new strategy out of it and will become bored.
The Strategy:
Market overreact = if a goal goes in between 0-20 mins we place a lay stake on the over 2.5 goals market to win 1ptThe Filter:
overall games = +10
FT over 2.5 = 40% or less
avg goal per match = 2.0 or less
last 5 games
current season only
leagues: top divisions in all of these unless stated in otherwise:
australia, belgium, china, croatia, czech, denmark, england (champ also), france, germany (bund 2 also), italy (b also), japan, holland, norway, poland, portugal, romania, scotland, slovackia, slovenia, korea, spain (liga 2 also), sweden (superettan also), switzerland, turkeyIv added a sheet on my results tab so people can copy it. Ill explain the columns once i have a live game as an example. This is a strategy iv used before but for the purposes of this im not inputting any insights or any opinions into it. Its building it from scratch. Going in blindly like most newer traders start off the process at. Please do not trade these, they are purely to help show how to build a testing filter and how to record and in future analyse how effective a strategy is. If we build a strategy that becomes profitable then we all come out with something from it. Ill try finish this one i promise
Im also tracking loosely a comeback filter which im helping a member with, once both get to good data sets ill do updates on both and between them both hopefully i can produce one that makes a solid strat for people to use. Both are easy to track and wont hinder my time as ill only be tracking the games i plan to be in for. These games will be shown on the sheets the night before.
-
@darri good point i think ill follow your advice and have a look at odds entry aswell as time entry
-
@liam-willis if thats what your data tells you then run with that we all have different data sets because we all track different things. MY entries as iv said arent all HT in fact 11/22 so 50% of those games were entries between 46-55 mins so its a flexible entry criteria for me. If it qualifies at HT tho it suits my new way of trading which is efficiency so i can just place the trade and move on with my day instead of waiting to see if no goal comes in the next 10 mins etc. Like i said yesterday on the football thread there will be people maximising my trades to make more money but its the efficiency part i care about. Being so granular just affects my mental mood too much and for not much more reward.
I still do the late goals tho but i pre select those games from the list and they too have 5 min windows planned for when to log in. If i cant be bothered trading them i wont its the flexibility im looking for now.
-
@ben-dobie Yep while its data only its also selective with price/value
-
@darri will do mate i have found from the filter that between 50-60 min is the best time to enter as the odds are better, goals between 45-50 happen but not often enough to worry about
-
@darri Cheers mate, sorry didn't think to check your sheets ...... looks like you've averaged around 1.28 ... better than I thought , something to think about moving forward
-
@ben-dobie it does massively differ not just leagues but also match odds wise as favs not leading affect the price. If you look at my google spreadsheet you can see all the odds im taking for all my trades. To get those prices im either entering at HT or waiting 5/10 mins to enter. Iv no exact set time to enter but if it goes past my average time of entry then its more likely that its just not a value price and therefore one to avoid even if its a trade deemed more likely to win.