The BTC Football Trading Thread
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I cant stress enough the benefit of focussing on just one strategy. I genuinely think every trader will have to realise and accept it at some point in their journey to really prosper. There are loads of wildly varying opinions from established traders about how to trade as everyone has their own way, but not one single trader would ever advise someone who is learning to trade to start out with 3/4 strategies - the fact that advice is unanimous has to taken notice of. I dont say this as an established trader by the way, ive been there myself in trying out 27 different methods but since concentrating on just one market my knowledge has increased dramatically. Trading is a very tough thing for people to crack and not a huge number of people do make it, so to be in that 'elite' there has to be an 'elite' level of knowledge to make you more successful than someone else trading your market. Now try achieving that level of ability in 3 markets simultaneously! Think of any business starting out - could they dominate 3 markets at the same time? No chance!
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@Martin-Futter I take it back.. I did one of your trades and backed Man City at 0-1
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@terry-cooke said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer Im doing that strategy too, but because I was concerned about liability, I'm doing what Stuart suggested and trading in the Double Chance market which I'm a lot more comfortable with.
Try betondroid. My bank is crap. I'm laying each at £1 haha!
Yeah you said the other day about betondroid, but ive not got an android phone so can't download it, thanks tho.
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@james-woodroffe yep spot on, i think keith rightly said players are making bad decisions, teams normally who perform wonders at home are now not (liverpool, celtic, barca, juve) and its why away teams are coming with less pressure. There is no way liverpool would have drawn with west brom and lost to burnley last season in front of crowds. We also saw that when they came back from restart not quite the same team. Just think back to your own experience as a kid or younger, playing in front of crowds gives you a buzz and an extra incentive. Some of these teams are now playing far more tactically now than doing something unexpected on the pitch. When teams get it right we have goal fests but when its a chess game its a snooze fest with no extra pressure/encouragement. How many times have we seen teams pass backwards right now or take short corners in the 92nd min when fans would bombard them with abuse if they did that. It probably ties in with laying the underdog too. Lets think back to the liverpool barca game without a crowd liverpool might not have comeback. Also remember the barca vs psg game few years back all that was stirred on by the crowds. It becomes too tactical with no crowds.
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@chris-osborne I also think mate that using cricket and tennis as an example that they are a lot more used to the fluctuations in crowd numbers. For example Australia in a “normal” year will walk out on to the MCG on Boxing Day and play in front of 90,000 and 6 weeks later it’s day 1 of a test in Dubai and there’s 2 men and a dog. Tennis players on Court 15 have their girlfriend and their coach one day then 20,000 on centre court the next. Footballers are used to crowd and noise and singing its got to be tough when everything seems after a while like a glorified friendly.
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Right, Udinese vs Inter has finished 0-0! That's me done for the day - if Villa lose to Newcastle later I'll be even more irritated!
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@Martin-Futter I blame you !!! I had my finger hovered over the button to put a massive £2 on cheltenham because I thought they might snatch one .. then I was like nope Martin would call it betting.. bloody BTC Academy has me brainwashed ..
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@oliver-moore said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I'd echo some of the other comments and say I'm finding it tough at the moment. Since I joined this site 5 months ago I've doubled my bank and now lost it back to it's original size. I'm not overly concerned as it seems to be part of the journey of being a trader-seeing the profit, upping stakes and hitting a bad run as you get over confident.
However, just recently some of the results have been dire-I had 3 missed penalties in a row during the week when looking for a late goal in games. No matter how mentally strong you have to be sometimes it's tough to take.
Both Freiburg and Wolfsberger let me down with solid looking stats this afternoon and what I thought was decent action.I've dipped into Stuart's LTD today and immediately picked a 0-0 to get involved with! Now if Udinese/Inter finishes 0-0 I will be somewhat irritated!
Just one thing on the LTD strat. Majority of the profit comes between 3.51-5.50 draw odds. I got stung on Ascoli as well but it was a mistake. I wouldn't do it again. 3-3.5 is only 23pts profit over 7.5 years. Something to bear in mind.
Also, beware of German Bundesliga. I had Freiburg on my list of papertrades but my plan was only to get involved if early part of the 2nd half saw a goal glut. I find it's one of those leagues where you either get nothing or almost nothing or.......everything and then more on top.
Remember its a set and forget strategy based on taking advantage of inefficient odds. Its going to have good and bad swings as stuart has proven. Its a a deceptively effective strategy. Id just forget about day to day results and do as stuart has done measure it over the years. Doesnt need to be your main strategy as the volatility of those swings could affect you mentally but long term with good staking it will build your bank.
Bundesliga is a filter filler almost every round of games brings loads onto most filters because its a good SHG league. So id evaluate it over a large amount of games before ditching. There is a reason they all come on the filter in the first place because its a very good league. Maybe covid has had an effect recently so dont discard it right now as when this is all over and back to normal this will be a very good league for SHG strats (from my experience)
Agree on the LTD. Going from his table over the years though the most inneficient odds have been 3.51-5.50. That's all I was saying.
Biggest thing I'm seeing is goals breed goals. The more very early goals there are in 2nd half the more late ones there are too. It's just an observation at the moment and that's all it will stay until I see consistent paper trading results.
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@oliver-moore said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I'd echo some of the other comments and say I'm finding it tough at the moment. Since I joined this site 5 months ago I've doubled my bank and now lost it back to it's original size. I'm not overly concerned as it seems to be part of the journey of being a trader-seeing the profit, upping stakes and hitting a bad run as you get over confident.
However, just recently some of the results have been dire-I had 3 missed penalties in a row during the week when looking for a late goal in games. No matter how mentally strong you have to be sometimes it's tough to take.
Both Freiburg and Wolfsberger let me down with solid looking stats this afternoon and what I thought was decent action.I've dipped into Stuart's LTD today and immediately picked a 0-0 to get involved with! Now if Udinese/Inter finishes 0-0 I will be somewhat irritated!
Just one thing on the LTD strat. Majority of the profit comes between 3.51-5.50 draw odds. I got stung on Ascoli as well but it was a mistake. I wouldn't do it again. 3-3.5 is only 23pts profit over 7.5 years. Something to bear in mind.
Also, beware of German Bundesliga. I had Freiburg on my list of papertrades but my plan was only to get involved if early part of the 2nd half saw a goal glut. I find it's one of those leagues where you either get nothing or almost nothing or.......everything and then more on top.
Remember its a set and forget strategy based on taking advantage of inefficient odds. Its going to have good and bad swings as stuart has proven. Its a a deceptively effective strategy. Id just forget about day to day results and do as stuart has done measure it over the years. Doesnt need to be your main strategy as the volatility of those swings could affect you mentally but long term with good staking it will build your bank.
Bundesliga is a filter filler almost every round of games brings loads onto most filters because its a good SHG league. So id evaluate it over a large amount of games before ditching. There is a reason they all come on the filter in the first place because its a very good league. Maybe covid has had an effect recently so dont discard it right now as when this is all over and back to normal this will be a very good league for SHG strats (from my experience)
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@james-woodroffe Yes I do I think its starting to have a big impact initially I think they we're just glad to be playing again but now motivation must be a huge factor without crowds. Watching the various sports in Australia, its noticeable there is more atmosphere and the players must respond to that instead of almost sterile environment in most of Europe.
I can't see any crowds at all this season at least until most of the population being vaccinated and it will probably be next season before we have any semblence of normality whatever that may be
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This is just a query guys, do you think that the no crowd element is now starting to drain on the players? I mean how long now have teams been playing in front of nobody? I know that they are professional footballers but still I just wonder if that’s an element that’s really starting to kick in? Thus affecting outcomes?
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@james-everard. I have been doing really well up to this month. Aug to December seen me make 31% 35% 17% 18% and 32% each month. This month I am hovering around 4% green. There will be ups and downs. Dont beat yourself up about it. Dont judge it over a week or a month but over 3/4 months. Sometimes I think Im winning small change but over the last 6 months i have tripled my bank from £200 to £620. Im no expert far from it but Im just trying to keep it simple with some very simple set and forget strats for the time being. Keep the faith mate.
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@james-everard said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Anyone else finding football near impossible to trade at the moment? Every system i try just fails. Getting to the point just wasting my day trading football , i spend an hour or so going through my filters and getting my lists together checking line ups etc to then enter the trade when inplay stats back up pre match and then still fails. Here is the list of matches that i had today to show you my frustrations
a)I had 3 matches on the lcs strategy (70mins), and 2 had goals in the 68th and 69th mins respectively the third match ended 0-0.
b)I had two late goal matches ( 80mins ) one had no goals the other i forgot to trade and had a 95th min goal
c) had a back the favourite in an Egyptian league match they had 30 shots at goal 75% possession and ended up 0-0 FT
d)I have lay the underdog in the German Bunds ( Mainz) and guess what they beat LeipzigI have a few matches still left this evening as possibilities which i shall try to stay positive and give a chance if the inplay stats suit but if they continue in the same light i will be looking to take some time away from the football and concentrate on Cricket which i am looking to get into more
Firstly you know what im going to advise. This list already tells me your trading more than one thing right now. You havent got one of them consistently profitable yet so id go look over your results and pick one of them to really focus in on. Paper trade that strategy and maybe in the background do some of the set and forget trades people are posting on here, stuart, alan and the btc boys have lists posted on here to follow. This way you can still grow the bank but also focus firmly on improving one strategy. Laying the dog is a cracking strategy but for me i feel it needs to have inplay to back it up, which would tie into reading the game or just basing it off inplay stats. The game already had 5 goals in it so was already a high scoring/overperforming game to average.
So my advice if your needing it want it would be:
Use the strategies that are proven profitable on here. Keeps you active and learning.
Paper trade ONE of your strategies. Get it ultra consistent. Learn the ins and outs, use the personal blogs as inspiration, the way those people have focussed on one strategy/filter and continued to improve it slowly.
Do not venture off to other things just now, it would only further steepen the learning curve (speaking from experience)
Do not rush to build a bank it just doesnt work. Small gains add up quickly over the year and when compounded it becomes very quick so try to forget what you have made in one day/week/month compounding when you have a profitable strategy will take care of that. -
@oliver-moore said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I'd echo some of the other comments and say I'm finding it tough at the moment. Since I joined this site 5 months ago I've doubled my bank and now lost it back to it's original size. I'm not overly concerned as it seems to be part of the journey of being a trader-seeing the profit, upping stakes and hitting a bad run as you get over confident.
However, just recently some of the results have been dire-I had 3 missed penalties in a row during the week when looking for a late goal in games. No matter how mentally strong you have to be sometimes it's tough to take.
Both Freiburg and Wolfsberger let me down with solid looking stats this afternoon and what I thought was decent action.I've dipped into Stuart's LTD today and immediately picked a 0-0 to get involved with! Now if Udinese/Inter finishes 0-0 I will be somewhat irritated!
Just one thing on the LTD strat. Majority of the profit comes between 3.51-5.50 draw odds. I got stung on Ascoli as well but it was a mistake. I wouldn't do it again. 3-3.5 is only 23pts profit over 7.5 years. Something to bear in mind.
Also, beware of German Bundesliga. I had Freiburg on my list of papertrades but my plan was only to get involved if early part of the 2nd half saw a goal glut. I find it's one of those leagues where you either get nothing or almost nothing or.......everything and then more on top.
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@ben-dobie said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@james-everard after updating my late goal filter today I was happy with my 67% s/r (550 games)based upon certain HT scorelines, traded them today to the letter and have had a nightmare, just one of those days I suppose but it’s still annoying
Going to listen to Richard's advice and delete the laying of the underdog filter i had set maybe next season will reinstate. I have a late goal filter(goal scored after 80mins any score) if i had of just traded this afternoon 4 on my list , two lost and two i missed as i was on the phone would have won 84th and 93rd min goals. So i will stick to this system and paper trade only for now backing the favourite.
What scorelines at half time do you look for and what entry time is do you execute your late your system? -
@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I'm the same, I am moving towards more set and forget for football which makes @stuaart-capstick's strategy ideal.
More than one way to trade and different styles suit different people. @darri's way of trading football is not somethng I couldn't do but all credit to him for making it work.
Not everyone trades based on match reading others are data driven which more suits me
What people often forget when they go down the ill watch this game inplay is it does become a matter of opinion. Its why VAR is currently not consistent because end of day some of the decisions are still an element of opinion. We all see games differently, every time we watch sky sports the pundits all have different opinion. So yes there is an element of skill in match reading which is hard to measure. There is obviously more profit to be had as everyone has seen if you include match reading and stats. This way you can cut out more of the losers. But remember match reading is all about optimising a strategy. If you can already find a strategy that makes a comfortable return each month/quarter without then be happy and safe with that. Dont laugh at the guy who makes 5% every month compound that and he will grow, we are all seeking a golden ticket but that in trading is it, PROFIT. For me match reading is why i was able to grow my bank so quickly because it adds to the strike rate and profits, but it can be tiring so if your content with making smaller but consistent profit with less stress id advise set and forgets. They just take longer to build.
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I'd echo some of the other comments and say I'm finding it tough at the moment. Since I joined this site 5 months ago I've doubled my bank and now lost it back to it's original size. I'm not overly concerned as it seems to be part of the journey of being a trader-seeing the profit, upping stakes and hitting a bad run as you get over confident.
However, just recently some of the results have been dire-I had 3 missed penalties in a row during the week when looking for a late goal in games. No matter how mentally strong you have to be sometimes it's tough to take.
Both Freiburg and Wolfsberger let me down with solid looking stats this afternoon and what I thought was decent action.I've dipped into Stuart's LTD today and immediately picked a 0-0 to get involved with! Now if Udinese/Inter finishes 0-0 I will be somewhat irritated!
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@terry-cooke said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer Im doing that strategy too, but because I was concerned about liability, I'm doing what Stuart suggested and trading in the Double Chance market which I'm a lot more comfortable with.
Try betondroid. My bank is crap. I'm laying each at £1 haha!
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@richard-latimer Im doing that strategy too, but because I was concerned about liability, I'm doing what Stuart suggested and trading in the Double Chance market which I'm a lot more comfortable with.
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@james-everard like I said, I'm paper trading until I find consistency in my plans. No point in throwing good money after bad. As soon as I see that I'm able to make rational, sensible plans based on the data at hand I will put me hand back in my pocket. Until then I'm just doing the set and forget pre kick-off LTD strat which has seen decent profit for 5 years straight.
