The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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Today's Mark Johnston selections.
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A couple of short priced losses today but no more than that.
5 days in, still confident.
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Picked the wrong Johnston runner there, change of tactics on my selection - the stablemate wins....
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Easy to aftertime the last race as it lost haha!
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Still working on todays so in order not to aftertime here are the ones for first race to look out for.
The shorter the price to the right the more I am getting rid of outliers or the highest inplay prices from last 5 races.
I'll confirm it later but I think recon mission came into 5's.
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Still working on todays so in order not to aftertime here are the ones for first race to look out for.
The shorter the price to the right the more I am getting rid of outliers or the highest inplay prices from last 5 races.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@charles-cartwright said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@charles-cartwright said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
First loss today but still worked out ok. Loss was 1.8 and the depending on the price point would have been between 2-3 wins. Enough to make the 1.8 back and then some.
A 4th straight day of success on the experiment.
Meant to post results for yesterday. Here they are. Will post up for today a little while later.
Looking at your results there if you had just straight DOBbed all of those selections you would have had 12 winners and just 2 losers!!! Up 10 pts on just 14 picks.
That would be great but I've removed the ones that didn't come in inplay as you can see from the difference in final results to all those potentials.
Yesterday for example I started off with 12 possibles. I think one of those was a non runner and the other 8 didn't come in that much.
LOL sorry thought it looked too good to be true!!!
Yeah that would be amazing haha!!
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@charles-cartwright said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
First loss today but still worked out ok. Loss was 1.8 and the depending on the price point would have been between 2-3 wins. Enough to make the 1.8 back and then some.
A 4th straight day of success on the experiment.
Meant to post results for yesterday. Here they are. Will post up for today a little while later.
Looking at your results there if you had just straight DOBbed all of those selections you would have had 12 winners and just 2 losers!!! Up 10 pts on just 14 picks.
That would be great but I've removed the ones that didn't come in inplay as you can see from the difference in final results to all those potentials.
Yesterday for example I started off with 12 possibles. I think one of those was a non runner and the other 8 didn't come in that much.
LOL sorry thought it looked too good to be true!!!
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@charles-cartwright said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
First loss today but still worked out ok. Loss was 1.8 and the depending on the price point would have been between 2-3 wins. Enough to make the 1.8 back and then some.
A 4th straight day of success on the experiment.
Meant to post results for yesterday. Here they are. Will post up for today a little while later.
Looking at your results there if you had just straight DOBbed all of those selections you would have had 12 winners and just 2 losers!!! Up 10 pts on just 14 picks.
That would be great but I've removed the ones that didn't come in inplay as you can see from the difference in final results to all those potentials.
Yesterday for example I started off with 12 possibles. I think one of those was a non runner and the other 8 didn't come in that much.
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@charles-cartwright said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
First loss today but still worked out ok. Loss was 1.8 and the depending on the price point would have been between 2-3 wins. Enough to make the 1.8 back and then some.
A 4th straight day of success on the experiment.
Meant to post results for yesterday. Here they are. Will post up for today a little while later.
Looking at your results there if you had just straight DOBbed all of those selections you would have had 12 winners and just 2 losers!!! Up 10 pts on just 14 picks.
That would be great but I've removed the ones that didn't come in inplay as you can see from the difference in final results to all those potentials.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
First loss today but still worked out ok. Loss was 1.8 and the depending on the price point would have been between 2-3 wins. Enough to make the 1.8 back and then some.
A 4th straight day of success on the experiment.
Meant to post results for yesterday. Here they are. Will post up for today a little while later.
Looking at your results there if you had just straight DOBbed all of those selections you would have had 12 winners and just 2 losers!!! Up 10 pts on just 14 picks.
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@richard-lillis said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Results
Bavardages - BSP 8.11 - Low = 3.3
Deep Intrigue - BSP 16.00 - Low 11.00
Sea Of Marmoon - BSP 3.34 - Low 1.012 wins - 1 Loss if Dobbing. (all 3 shortened in-running)
Nice start Richard!
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
First loss today but still worked out ok. Loss was 1.8 and the depending on the price point would have been between 2-3 wins. Enough to make the 1.8 back and then some.
A 4th straight day of success on the experiment.
Meant to post results for yesterday. Here they are. Will post up for today a little while later.
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Results
Bavardages - BSP 8.11 - Low = 3.3
Deep Intrigue - BSP 16.00 - Low 11.00
Sea Of Marmoon - BSP 3.34 - Low 1.012 wins - 1 Loss if Dobbing. (all 3 shortened in-running)
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Friday's Selections!
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First loss today but still worked out ok. Loss was 1.8 and the depending on the price point would have been between 2-3 wins. Enough to make the 1.8 back and then some.
A 4th straight day of success on the experiment.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@charles-cartwright said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-lillis said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-lillis said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Going to spend the next couple of months testing a theory regarding a certain flat trainer and their horses running styles. For those who follow flat racing closely - A large number of M Johnston horses are trained to be tough front running horses who are hard to pass (particulalry in handicaps). When reviewing my results for previous years a large number of successful trades / Dob's were trained by M Johnston. I have selected the above horses for today (removed odds on shots and non handicaps).
Just to clarify - i'm looking for these horses to shorten / DOB in running.
Interesting concept Richard. Have never really thought about trainers 'styles' or 'preferences' in terms of types of horses they produce. Of the 3 you selected there I would say that the first one Bevardages is the closest to something I would pick for a B2L based purely on running style and DOB conversion rate. Carrying a pretty stiff penalty though for consecutive wins in his last two races and that may affect how he is put into the race.
Will be interested to see how this works out. Being ultra cautious in everything right now but I do like Ghathanfar as a B2L in the 14:45 at Newcastle.
yep - its worth testing these theories whilst racing is relaively quiet - i may even take it further to include just certain tracks as looking at my data - high strike rate at goodwood and Ripon amongst others. I'm not to worried about the increase in weights for Bavardages in terms of running syle as there isn't a massive amount of pace in race and think they will try same tactics as last three starts. Hoefully this will be enough for a trade regardless of whether the new mark stops him winning race or not.(think 10Ib is fair considering how easy it won last time).
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@richard-lillis said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-lillis said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Going to spend the next couple of months testing a theory regarding a certain flat trainer and their horses running styles. For those who follow flat racing closely - A large number of M Johnston horses are trained to be tough front running horses who are hard to pass (particulalry in handicaps). When reviewing my results for previous years a large number of successful trades / Dob's were trained by M Johnston. I have selected the above horses for today (removed odds on shots and non handicaps).
Just to clarify - i'm looking for these horses to shorten / DOB in running.
Interesting concept Richard. Have never really thought about trainers 'styles' or 'preferences' in terms of types of horses they produce. Of the 3 you selected there I would say that the first one Bevardages is the closest to something I would pick for a B2L based purely on running style and DOB conversion rate. Carrying a pretty stiff penalty though for consecutive wins in his last two races and that may affect how he is put into the race.
Will be interested to see how this works out. Being ultra cautious in everything right now but I do like Ghathanfar as a B2L in the 14:45 at Newcastle.
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Todays racing has thrown up a whole load of new scenarios where horse is priced way lower than inplay price has reached before etc.
As can be seeen I've added new columns removing more of the highest prices and then going so far as to halve the lowest reached inplay price.
This is an experiment so I'm not touching it with real mooney at the moment but the logic works for me and as long as the results keep showing a positive I will keep tracking.
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This post is deleted!
