The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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@james-everard Yeah, I don't have the confidence for the outsiders yet. Not enough knowledge. I like to follow the money! The next race is a tricky one as the horse I like is drawn wide and had mediocre pace stats and races midfield. I may give this one a miss but keeping an eye on the market just now.
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@keith-dow Two high odds horses from the timeform at the 20.15pm mate
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2/2 for me so far. The 3 I had my eye on in the first came 1,2,3 and in the second I was watching 2 and they came 2&3. Only back one at time though and trying to scalp 10% of the stake just now.
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@charles-cartwright said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer keep us updated on that!
I will for sure. Think it will need a similar sort of race criteria but perhaps not so restricted. Same, distance for sure. Maybe don't need quite as many runners and timeform favourite can be shorter than 4.0 I think. As long as I get a good price laying tf favourite (thinking 2.50 BSP lowest if I want to lay at 2.02 which was how I experimented yesterday).
Obv if I match none of them then it's no loss so no big deal.
I remember the experiment of laying tf favourite went ok so maybe laying all 3 at lower in running prices will fare just as well if not better.
Struggling to understand the logic with this one Richard. You set your in play lays to fire on only 3 horses in the field so realistically the only way you win (at your close to even money play) is that 1 or more of them hits that mark but none of them are the ultimate winner of the race because that has to be horse that you didn't include in your selections.
The whole premise of LTF is that the races are unpredictable and that odds fluctuate tremendously in play so that any of the runners can end up at a low price but only one will win. The best conversion rate often comes when a relative outsider wins the race but several of the more fancied runners give a strong showing.
If you are going to try to cherry pick these then maybe (and I am hesitant with this because I have never tried it and have no way of testing it with retrospective data) look for races with several front or prominent running horses that have high DOB conversion rates. Can't really do any of that until proper racing comes back because of the really small number of races right now and the lack of decent exchange markets.
Hit the nail on the head at the end. Can't do any of that yet. I know people had success laying timeform horses so why not lay all 3 at much lower odds??! It worked last night. Maybe not tonight but we'll see. Looking for fresh one to drift a bit for 19:15 to qualify.
Hi Richard, the 19.45pm race none of the time form tips won, but the race before odds of 2.71 bsp odds won. Maybe we should look at laying any of the timeform horses that are odds range say 3.5 -5.0 ?
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Don't know what bsp was in first but seemed over 2.5. Nevermind. Onwards.
Worked in the last
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Don't know what bsp was in first but seemed over 2.5. Nevermind. Onwards.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@charles-cartwright said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer keep us updated on that!
I will for sure. Think it will need a similar sort of race criteria but perhaps not so restricted. Same, distance for sure. Maybe don't need quite as many runners and timeform favourite can be shorter than 4.0 I think. As long as I get a good price laying tf favourite (thinking 2.50 BSP lowest if I want to lay at 2.02 which was how I experimented yesterday).
Obv if I match none of them then it's no loss so no big deal.
I remember the experiment of laying tf favourite went ok so maybe laying all 3 at lower in running prices will fare just as well if not better.
Struggling to understand the logic with this one Richard. You set your in play lays to fire on only 3 horses in the field so realistically the only way you win (at your close to even money play) is that 1 or more of them hits that mark but none of them are the ultimate winner of the race because that has to be horse that you didn't include in your selections.
The whole premise of LTF is that the races are unpredictable and that odds fluctuate tremendously in play so that any of the runners can end up at a low price but only one will win. The best conversion rate often comes when a relative outsider wins the race but several of the more fancied runners give a strong showing.
If you are going to try to cherry pick these then maybe (and I am hesitant with this because I have never tried it and have no way of testing it with retrospective data) look for races with several front or prominent running horses that have high DOB conversion rates. Can't really do any of that until proper racing comes back because of the really small number of races right now and the lack of decent exchange markets.
Hit the nail on the head at the end. Can't do any of that yet. I know people had success laying timeform horses so why not lay all 3 at much lower odds??! It worked last night. Maybe not tonight but we'll see. Looking for fresh one to drift a bit for 19:15 to qualify.
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@james-everard I'll probably have an absolute nightmare tonight now!
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@charles-cartwright said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@james-everard said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@keith-dow Hi Keith that's a good strike rate buddy . What site do you use to determine which horses are likely to be front runners ?
100% is a 'pretty good' strikerate!!! I would say so!!!!!!
Maybe Keith you should consider moving to east-bumf^#k Oklahoma and set up residency at WRD.
always room for improvement lol
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@charles-cartwright said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@james-everard said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@keith-dow Hi Keith that's a good strike rate buddy . What site do you use to determine which horses are likely to be front runners ?
100% is a 'pretty good' strikerate!!! I would say so!!!!!!
Maybe Keith you should consider moving to east-bumf^#k Oklahoma and set up residency at WRD.
Haha. I think I’d make a good Redneck.
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@james-everard said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@keith-dow Hi Keith that's a good strike rate buddy . What site do you use to determine which horses are likely to be front runners ?
100% is a 'pretty good' strikerate!!! I would say so!!!!!!
Maybe Keith you should consider moving to east-bumf^#k Oklahoma and set up residency at WRD.
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer keep us updated on that!
I will for sure. Think it will need a similar sort of race criteria but perhaps not so restricted. Same, distance for sure. Maybe don't need quite as many runners and timeform favourite can be shorter than 4.0 I think. As long as I get a good price laying tf favourite (thinking 2.50 BSP lowest if I want to lay at 2.02 which was how I experimented yesterday).
Obv if I match none of them then it's no loss so no big deal.
I remember the experiment of laying tf favourite went ok so maybe laying all 3 at lower in running prices will fare just as well if not better.
Struggling to understand the logic with this one Richard. You set your in play lays to fire on only 3 horses in the field so realistically the only way you win (at your close to even money play) is that 1 or more of them hits that mark but none of them are the ultimate winner of the race because that has to be horse that you didn't include in your selections.
The whole premise of LTF is that the races are unpredictable and that odds fluctuate tremendously in play so that any of the runners can end up at a low price but only one will win. The best conversion rate often comes when a relative outsider wins the race but several of the more fancied runners give a strong showing.
If you are going to try to cherry pick these then maybe (and I am hesitant with this because I have never tried it and have no way of testing it with retrospective data) look for races with several front or prominent running horses that have high DOB conversion rates. Can't really do any of that until proper racing comes back because of the really small number of races right now and the lack of decent exchange markets.
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@james-everard mostly the market, timeform and Bet America.
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This post is deleted!
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@keith-dow Hi Keith that's a good strike rate buddy . What site do you use to determine which horses are likely to be front runners ?
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Looking forward to Will Rogers tonight. Got 6/6 on my B2L's last night, and have a little extra to play with after my overnight Aussie bot hit 100%. Still early days and small stakes but laying the foundations for when the proper racing returns.
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
When UK racing is back I was wondering about maybe using the in running ratings on winning warlock to try and not just lay the entire field but perhaps a part of the field.
Do you reckon something like this could work?
There's also timeform 1,2,3 on betfair for all the U.S. races at the moment so considered looking at how all of these do? Again could they all be laid in running? How often does one of the 3 win, how often do they shorten in price?
Would still only look at the same race distances for the timeform 1,2,3
To add my input to the timeform. I have noticed quite often Betfair timeform has a tip that is much higher priced odds than the others and the strike rate seems good on these.
I had a winner a couple of days ago around the 38.0 and the next race had the same odds but lost by a nose. I will have to make notes of which courses, distances and the horses that win at the high odds and maybe something to work on a back to lay system? -
@dan-erridge said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@charles-cartwright
Yes mate I agree, think it could be back soon aswell, be interesting on early ltf in England as if behind closed doors it will take away the live punters edge won’t it? They will have same pics as us,so decisions could be more rash, which might help us? Keep us up to date with the project mate, sounds good
Dan
I just want to be able to use proper analytics to make sensible trading decisions. This stuff now is just ridiculous. For those trying to do anything with the US races best of luck because I have just shut that one down completely. Most of the races are too short, all the horses run on the same tracks all the time which cuts down on variance within races, and worst of all the liquidity in the markets is pathetic meaning that massive changes can occur in running with almost nothing happening to the prices being traded. Never mind the fact that racing on the exchange is at really crappy tracks at very low grades.
I will carry on with the Aussie racing because I think there is some potential there if you limit it to races with decent liquidity (at least 200K). Won't get more than a few of those a week though and pretty much only at the weekend.
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@martin-futter said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
@richard-latimer keep us updated on that!
I will for sure. Think it will need a similar sort of race criteria but perhaps not so restricted. Same, distance for sure. Maybe don't need quite as many runners and timeform favourite can be shorter than 4.0 I think. As long as I get a good price laying tf favourite (thinking 2.50 BSP lowest if I want to lay at 2.02 which was how I experimented yesterday).
Obv if I match none of them then it's no loss so no big deal.
I remember the experiment of laying tf favourite went ok so maybe laying all 3 at lower in running prices will fare just as well if not better.
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@charles-cartwright
Yes mate I agree, think it could be back soon aswell, be interesting on early ltf in England as if behind closed doors it will take away the live punters edge won’t it? They will have same pics as us,so decisions could be more rash, which might help us? Keep us up to date with the project mate, sounds good
Dan
