*****New Football Thread*****

Martin

Welcome to the new football trading main thread!

Keep all of your football trading discussion in here!

Not sure where to start with football trading? Take a look at our beginners guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide

We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials

FHG = First Half Goal
SHG = Second Half Goal
LTD = Lay The Draw
LCS = Lay Current Score

Patrik Mellqvist

@Ryan said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Patrik-Mellqvist Gotcha, ok so lets take my one you've been working on still with the same entry points?

But after the first goal you wait for 5 mins before you trade out?

I get back to you - don't mind talking about it -
@Ryan

One Set & Forget - Private
One Trading - Split Stake
One Scalping - Private

That's it.

Ryan

@Patrik-Mellqvist Gotcha, ok so lets take my one you've been working on still with the same entry points?

But after the first goal you wait for 5 mins before you trade out?

Patrik Mellqvist

@Ryan said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Patrik-Mellqvist Hey!

Right couple of Q's.....

Is the highly reliable strategy the split stake one or something else?

Are you still using my usual entry points on the split stake?

On the 3 staking plans how does this work?

Something else.
A whole other method.
Set & Forget

Split-Stske Lightning be second method.

Ryan

@Patrik-Mellqvist Hey!

Right couple of Q's.....

Is the highly reliable strategy the split stake one or something else?

Are you still using my usual entry points on the split stake?

On the 3 staking plans how does this work?

Patrik Mellqvist

@Ryan @Martin @Adam

The Open Book

Currently, my regular income is €1,800, and scaling up through sports betting is no easy task. Since Betfair is unavailable in Sweden, Smarkets is my primary local option.
Right now, I average €500 using a single, highly reliable method—treating it like a literal cash cow. However, this introduces a tax challenge. The bookmakers that actually tolerate long-term winners operate without a Swedish gaming license, meaning my profits are subject to tax.
If you spot any flaws in my logic or have insights on how to make this setup even more lucrative, please share your thoughts or send a DM. I am currently between jobs and debating whether to take a part-time position or focus on this full-time.
Here is the blueprint I am currently mapping out:

• Sportmarket: €500
• Pinnacle Clone: €500
• Betfair Clone: €500
• Smarkets: €500
• Passive Income: €700

Expected Total: ~€2,200/month after taxes (calculated with conservative profit margins to keep it realistic).
All of this relies on one single method. It is so unique and reliable that I do not need anything else. It is essentially a "set & forget" system applied across three different staking models:

1. Flat Betting (Conservative)
2. 2-6 Strategy (Aggressive)
3. Masaniello (Hedge betting)

My ultimate goal is to scale this to €5,000 or €10,000 per month. Reaching that volume shifts the focus entirely toward liquidity.
To get there, the plan is to run parallel betting with €1,000 stakes, strictly targeting high-turnover leagues where the liquidity is deep enough to cut down the juice. It is ambitious, but absolutely doable.
The final step of the roadmap is to secure these profits by investing the surplus into precious metals and the stock market.

Ryan

@Patrik-Mellqvist This is incredible, I love that you have done this many people have taken my base one and tweaked it and done very very well.

Just to confirm what entry times are you going with?

LOVE that you added 5 ticks!!!

Patrik Mellqvist

My Take on Ryan's SPLIT-STAKE
Starting by THANKING RYAN

I have extracted and highlighted the golden ratio for 100+ matches and added 5 ticks beyond the sweet spot.
So all parameters have value and value odds.
The filter is now, in our opinion, optimized and ready for the test period.
It will be interesting to see if we surpass an 80% strike ratio after 100 bets placed.

LET THE GAME BEGIN

a) FT Over 1.5 goals 80% or more
b) Overall goals 3.3 or more
c) 30-70 min 49% or more
d) Total goals scored 49% or more

... and then we add a 5-min method before cash out, so if a second goal within 5 minutes FULL JACKPOT, otherwise a 2 to 3 ticks reduced win on the Cash Out.

Cheers

Akiva Anderson

Agree @Richard-Latimer no idea how Djed Spence has made it or Toney for that matter.

@Stephen-Hancox I would've liked to have seen Wharton being given a chance. Cole Palmer & Joe Foden haven't done enough for me this season - especially Foden, he's been trash.

I'm not excited about this World Cup at all. I don't think it'll be fast paced.

Stephen Hancox

@Akiva-Anderson I would have loved to have seen Cole Palmer included but be's not back to his best yet, also a big fan of Wharton but maybe not his time yet. We have so many options in certain positions that there was always going to be disappointment with omissions. Overall it does look a balanced squad, I remember the last tournament thinking we were well short on the left side.

Richard Latimer

@Akiva-Anderson It's different, I'll say that!

Djed Spence?!
Ivan Toney!?

No Adam Wharton
No Cole Parmer

Akiva Anderson

What did everyone make of the England squad? Looking forward to the World Cup?

Akiva Anderson

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Akiva-Anderson cry your salty tears

Liverpool will be back next year. Slot in!!

Prefer Arsenal to win than City if I’m honest.

Ryan

Liverpool all depends a few changes and you could see them change a lot!

Richard Latimer

@Akiva-Anderson cry your salty tears

Liverpool will be back next year. Slot in!!

Akiva Anderson

@Richard-Latimer said in *****New Football Thread*****:

@Akiva-Anderson one thing to say, f**k off haha!!!!!

Knew you wouldn’t like it! Truth hurts!

Congratulations though. Enjoy your PGMOL title

Richard Latimer

@Akiva-Anderson one thing to say, f**k off haha!!!!!

Akiva Anderson

Two good early prices:

Crystal Palace to beat Rayo Vallecano at EVENS

PSG to beat Arsenal at 7/5

Richard Latimer

@Ryan at least Haaland scoring at the end makes it easier for you.

Ryan

The thing that annoyed me most as I didnt want City to win the league but I did want them to beat Bournemouth to secure the champs league for Liverpool which is sorta done on GD but despite Liverpools best efforts they have kinda got lol