*****New Football Thread*****
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Welcome to the new football trading main thread!
Keep all of your football trading discussion in here!
Not sure where to start with football trading? Take a look at our beginners guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide
We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials
FHG = First Half Goal
SHG = Second Half Goal
LTD = Lay The Draw
LCS = Lay Current Score -
@Akiva-Anderson Majorly! I still think they might bumble their way to 5th and get champs league though.
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@Andy-Donnelly said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Akiva-Anderson Have Ineos had any real success in any of their sporting ventures? Glazers have played a blinder tho. Still majority owners and leave ineos to take most of the heat
Cycling, I think. That Swiss team that they own got promoted under them, but both Nice and United are awful. The Glazers would be mad to give up United, I'm sure they will at some stage, but it's the family piggy bank for years
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@Akiva-Anderson Have Ineos had any real success in any of their sporting ventures? Glazers have played a blinder tho. Still majority owners and leave ineos to take most of the heat
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Man United are a disaster, aren't they?!
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@Stuart-Capstick said in *****New Football Thread*****:
To help people see how systems work: If you have a strategy which wins 80% of the time and your total data set is 500 matches, you can expect to have a losing run of 4 in a row.
This doesn't mean that you won't then get another three losers in a row etc. 80% SR means 20% of the time you lose. Those losses can come in clusters. In fact, they will come in clusters; it would be very unlikely if they didn't.
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Another great weekend for SHG's
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@Alastair-Todd said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Alex-Rendell Agreed (again) but having won about £60 on slots today and all three O1.5 trades winning, albeit at smaller stakes, I have steadied the ship somewhat. Yesterday was a bad patch generally - onwards now!
I had to exclude myself from slots
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@Alex-Rendell Agreed (again) but having won about £60 on slots today and all three O1.5 trades winning, albeit at smaller stakes, I have steadied the ship somewhat. Yesterday was a bad patch generally - onwards now!
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@Alastair-Todd good man
although there’s the further argument that you shouldn’t be doing all your losing at higher stakes and then trying to win it back at lower stakes..but that’s often easier said than done! -
@Alex-Rendell Agreed Alex - that's why I'm back on it this afternoon but with 1% stakes rather than 2%
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@Alastair-Todd 53% simply cannot continue, so you’re in for an inevitable upturn at some point. Abandoning it now will only cement the loss and mean you’ll definitely miss the turnaround…this is why so many people fail at this game!!
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83% out of how many matches? If over 1,000, then it isn't worrying.
53% from January alone is not so strange, IF your dataset is in the thousands.
Put simply, the 17% of losses will not happen evenly distributed. The losses will come in clusters- just how maths works.
If you are concerned, just paper trade for the rest of the month.
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Previously I had said - "the only way is up", after a rubbish start to 2026 on my O1.5 goal filter. Today has been much worse.
From a strike rate of over 83% at the end of December, the filter is on a strike rate of 53% so far this January (all 10 days of it)!!
Three out of four trades have lost this afternoon and I'm wondering whether I can face putting the last two on - try to claw back some profit or go further into the hole if they also lose...?
What the hell is going on?!!
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@Alastair-Todd Amazing when it's like the highest scoring fixture usually... mental.
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22 millionaires on the pitch at Arsenal and 4 SOTs in the whole match. Incredible. Trading profits taking a hammering.
