*****New Football Thread*****
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Welcome to the new football trading main thread!
Keep all of your football trading discussion in here!
Not sure where to start with football trading? Take a look at our beginners guide: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-ultimate-trading-start-guide
We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials
FHG = First Half Goal
SHG = Second Half Goal
LTD = Lay The Draw
LCS = Lay Current Score -
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@Alastair-Todd said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Alex-Rendell Agreed (again) but having won about £60 on slots today and all three O1.5 trades winning, albeit at smaller stakes, I have steadied the ship somewhat. Yesterday was a bad patch generally - onwards now!
I had to exclude myself from slots
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@Alex-Rendell Agreed (again) but having won about £60 on slots today and all three O1.5 trades winning, albeit at smaller stakes, I have steadied the ship somewhat. Yesterday was a bad patch generally - onwards now!
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@Alastair-Todd good man
although there’s the further argument that you shouldn’t be doing all your losing at higher stakes and then trying to win it back at lower stakes..but that’s often easier said than done! -
@Alex-Rendell Agreed Alex - that's why I'm back on it this afternoon but with 1% stakes rather than 2%
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@Alastair-Todd 53% simply cannot continue, so you’re in for an inevitable upturn at some point. Abandoning it now will only cement the loss and mean you’ll definitely miss the turnaround…this is why so many people fail at this game!!
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83% out of how many matches? If over 1,000, then it isn't worrying.
53% from January alone is not so strange, IF your dataset is in the thousands.
Put simply, the 17% of losses will not happen evenly distributed. The losses will come in clusters- just how maths works.
If you are concerned, just paper trade for the rest of the month.
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Previously I had said - "the only way is up", after a rubbish start to 2026 on my O1.5 goal filter. Today has been much worse.
From a strike rate of over 83% at the end of December, the filter is on a strike rate of 53% so far this January (all 10 days of it)!!
Three out of four trades have lost this afternoon and I'm wondering whether I can face putting the last two on - try to claw back some profit or go further into the hole if they also lose...?
What the hell is going on?!!
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@Alastair-Todd Amazing when it's like the highest scoring fixture usually... mental.
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22 millionaires on the pitch at Arsenal and 4 SOTs in the whole match. Incredible. Trading profits taking a hammering.
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Question for footy traders who bet pre-match:
What's the earliest you would ever generally enter a trade or place a pre-match bet?
As soon as the match appears on Betfair?
As soon as liquidity is decent (e.g. small spread or certain amount traded)?
1 day before the match?
When the squad is announced?
Just before kick-off?Let me know
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@james-everard I have been using the stats a lot more to get an idea of first goal times which then drives whether or not I put the full stake on from the start. I usually try to put a half stake on at a sensible time (from the stats) and then set up two quarter stakes to drip in shortly after.
I'm certainly no expert but I got tired of putting the whole stake on at KO only to find that the first goal comes in 20 mins later and I could have got a much better price. It doesn't always work of course but I reckon that I am getting a higher overall average price by drip feeding. The stats are key though - as @martin keeps saying!
