The Predictable but hopefully successful new year reset...
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@Shannon-Townsend Really can't stress enough how much you need to look at individual leagues and not necessarily the same ones for each system.
Also look at whether high or low odds succeed or fail for each league.
Only way I've finally been able to produce what I believe is now going to be highly profitable portfolio is from a) making mistakes, b) looking at between 12 to 16 different parameters on each one (doesn't mean they will all be relevant on every system but if you think they may....track them), then look for patterns within the data.
What I've started doing now for all is this. And I do it more than once as things change. Eventually you realise some things are not going to change and then you're just tweaking around the edges with leagues, odds and the occasional paramter which will work in summer leagues but not winter for example.
I get my raw data and I look at the top/bottom end of every parameter for the yield. When I've gone through them all I filter the data that has worst yield and do it all over again without the the removed data. Eventually I get to a point where no negative parameters exist.
Then I can look at leagues, then odds, then leagues and odds.
Eventually I get something which is starting to look quite robust. Some leagues will take longer to prove themselves or to ultimately fail. Some will do so quickly. If I'm unsure on a league I generally don't mess around. Filter it until I am....if it gets worse or stays the same I made the right decision. If it improves. I missed a few successful trades but this is great for the data.
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Forgot we are now somehow in March so late update and a mixed month but here goes -
Lay u1.5 goals (dead) - this has officially died. after a year of tracking it is pretty much at even... will do a deep dive and see if i can shed some light
LTD 1st half only (live) - up 9 pts this month so 14 pts up for the year so far, i like this strategy as not many selections so think i give them more attention
BTTS (live- for now) - down 4 pts for the year and very time consuming as loads of selections and have to look up odds manually.
Lay Away (live) - down 3 pts for the year
Serie A over 2.5 goals (live)- down 3 pts for the year but currently paying for itself over course of the season
Over 2.5 goals (paper trading) - gone from 14 pts up last month to 9pts down this month, am hoping it continues to be terrible so i can flip it in time
really enjoying looking at the over 1.5 split and do feel more in control when less selections and trading rather than set and forget... this is 0.5 pys up but only a handful of eligible games so far.... also revisting a LTD strat whcih i ditched early on in my journey as i had no discipline, hoping i have grown in that department.
overall in real money terms i have made 4pts so far this year so whilst not amazing i am not losing money.
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one potential tonight -
England Premier League 25/02/2025 19:30 Brighton Bournemouth
goal came early so no trade
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Today -
Heading in to London with the family though so may or may not be able to track odds etc
4 profitable trades and 3 no trades so good day on this...
Tomorrow -
just the AZ Alkmaar game qualified and was a winner with goal coming on 61 mins
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one today -
Goal came 1 min early... last two trades have been good selections just out by seconds on both... nothing lost when goal comes early though so that's positive.
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@Shannon-Townsend Slight change of tact on this thread... set and forgets are being tracked etc but with the in play over 1.5 split stake being something i am also looking at now i think it will be more benifical to me to track that on here as well as on my spreadsheet...
4 selections today but 1st 3 had a goal before the half hour entry point, 1 to go this evening -
goaol cam on 73 mins so 3 mins after the stop loss
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@Shannon-Townsend steak and red wine sounds good!
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@Shannon-Townsend missed my usual Friday late night trading window last night due to steak and too much red wine, Saturdays have too many selections to get through on the day and off to watch Fulham today so going to write Saturday off and log on tonight for Sundays trades.
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@Shannon-Townsend another bad evening on over 2.5s
one today -
really not concerned with the results at the minute as all about getting the data
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@Shannon-Townsend AC Milan to Dorking!
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Missed last nights trades as went to watch the Mighty Dorking Wanderers in the National league South..
Today we have -
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@Shannon-Townsend another bad day for this but still early days and collecting lots of data... fee more games finishing 1-1 so thats a continued theme.
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