The Predictable but hopefully successful new year reset...
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So 2023 has nearly come to an end and its been quite a speedy journey to Betfair Trading as didnt know it existed 8 months ago but after a year of matched betting, 3 months of trading and a month of BTC i am hoping i am in a position to get the mindset straight and kick on from here... i have spend the day creating stratagys that i will paper trade over the next few months and will hopefully compliment and then replace my current LTD stratagy which seems to be pretty good but only ever feels like being a bad run away from back to square 1... anyway, not expecting anyone to read this but hoping it will keep me on track as i have a tendency to overtrade (sure thats a common issue)...
Happy New Year to any poor sod who spent the last few minutes reading this
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@Andy-Donnelly Yeah i must admit i should have excluded it but didnt look closely enough at all this weekend.
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@Andy-Donnelly Some leagues just defy the statistics and they are more than likely heading back to the mean average. Chile is another bad one for goals in my experience.
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@Alastair-Todd Mexico is not a great league for consistent goals. Mine are break even on over 1.5 and so I only track them at present.
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@Alastair-Todd Yeh had that one too. Mexico has only just started again after a long winter break, probably should treat it as a new season so may be shouldn’t have qualified due to lack of matches/data.
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@Shannon-Townsend said in The Predictable but hopefully successful new year reset...:
Sunday -
I had high hopes for that Toluca match....
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busy one today, not had a chance to fully go through them so going in a tad blind today.
6 out of 14 meaning nothing lost nothing gained on this...
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one today and a 1st for me as it is in Saudi, didnt realise that league had been added -
defeat - boooo and with 2 goals disallowed
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@Shannon-Townsend
I hope all is going smoothly ...Cheers
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@Shannon-Townsend very profitable month well done! May get some selections on Friday but not much before that, barely any league footy on until Friday.
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Not quite the end of the month but not sure going to be many more selections this week -
Lay u1.5 goals - went back to paper on this and glad i did as continued its decline dramatically and lost 15 pts in Jan
LTD 1st half only - sitting at 39 pts so 1pt up in Jan
BTTS - now 39 pts so 5 pts up in Jan
Lay Away - no movement in Jan
Serie A over 2.5 goals - lost 2 pts this month
New Over 2.5 goals - 14 pts up for the month
overall a profitable month to start the year.
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@Shannon-Townsend what a match you chose to go to! Two goals in injury time to win it wow!
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@Shannon-Townsend so back after a top trip the Milan... the San Siro is very impressive and a dramatic 3-2 home win...
2 out of 3 for Saturday which leaves the bank at 15pts profit...
5 selections today -
1st one was nice and easy... 50% from tonight's games and that keeps it ticking along nicely...
Sadly only 1 from 4 tonight but good run had to come to an end.
When I get a moment I will also set up a spreadsheet for over 1.5 and over 3.5 goals...
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@Shannon-Townsend these keep on rolling nicely, thinking of doing a football forum challenge for a bit of fun, these could work well for it.
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@Shannon-Townsend after another good evening i thought i would check tomorrows selections and set them up before i go away -
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three tonight then won't do anymore this weekend unless the pop in my filter tonight -
first one was comfortable at 2-2 followed by two more wins...
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@Shannon-Townsend amazing! Have been to Barcelona and Porto but not to watch matches. Actually I did go to a Celta Vigo match while in Northern Spain crossing over the border from Porto, sat in with the ultras it was nuts.
Go to Lake Como if you can, if you are with mates even better, so many bars and restaurants alongside the lake.
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Thanks Martin thats really helpful... No, i'm a Fulham fan but European football is very rare so go with a few mates to a different city each year and watch a match... Done Athletico, Valencia, Barcelona, lyon and Porto so far and San Siro was on the shortlist and very cheap this time of year... I wanted to fit in a Como game whilst we were there but doesnt quite work with flights...
