The Predictable but hopefully successful new year reset...
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So 2023 has nearly come to an end and its been quite a speedy journey to Betfair Trading as didnt know it existed 8 months ago but after a year of matched betting, 3 months of trading and a month of BTC i am hoping i am in a position to get the mindset straight and kick on from here... i have spend the day creating stratagys that i will paper trade over the next few months and will hopefully compliment and then replace my current LTD stratagy which seems to be pretty good but only ever feels like being a bad run away from back to square 1... anyway, not expecting anyone to read this but hoping it will keep me on track as i have a tendency to overtrade (sure thats a common issue)...
Happy New Year to any poor sod who spent the last few minutes reading this
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@Shannon-Townsend Fantastic effort , good luck for 2025
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@Shannon-Townsend so 6 from 12 after last night and a tiny profit overall due to better odds in Portugal covering the commission so far...
Tonight -
both well over evens...
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@Shannon-Townsend so another defeat leaves me 5 from 10... all odds were evens so a loss of the 2% commission on the 5 winners...
2 late entries for tonight -
Italy Serie A 05/01/2025 19:45 AS Roma Lazio
Portugal Liga Portugal 05/01/2025 20:30 Estrela Estoril -
@Shannon-Townsend one out of 2 last night... so 5 from 9 so far and 1 to go this weekend... all odds have been at evens.
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1 out of the 1st 4 so far today so back to square one but i know this is going to have a lot of varience and still 2 to go tonight -
One for tomorrow -
Scotland Premiership 05/01/2025 14:30 Motherwell Aberdeen
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This post is deleted!
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As i am live on my LTD 1st half, BTTS, Lay away and Serie A set and forgets with small stakes i am going to give them till end of season and do a deep dive at that point... they are kind of self sufficient for the time being...
What i am going to do is try and nail down my over 2.5 value set and forgets and to keep myself accountable and actually look at the trades in a bit more detail i am going to put them in this thread when possible prior to trading them -
1st i had a game in Israel which came in within the 1st half at evens (evens will be my minimum odds)
next up -
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@Shannon-Townsend Happy New Year, I read it and am interested in how you get on next year so keep updating please. Am only a few months in myself and am testing 2 very simple strategies. Seeing what the experienced folks are up to is interesting but I want to follow new traders too.
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Nothing tomorrow so end of year results -
Lay u1.5 goals - now 26 pts so continuing its decline but a profit for the year
LTD 1st half only - now 38 pts so a losing month but again a profit for the year
BTTS - now 34 pts up so also a losing month but overall a profit
Lay Away - now at 43pts up so up a pt this month and has been most successful strategy recently
Serie A over 2.5 goals - have gone live with this and up 13 pts so far
Have also spent the last 6 months paper trading value over 2.5 goals set and forget after 400 odd results and a bit of fine tuning it has hit 12 pts profit so keeping an eye on that.
Overall i think i have learnt a lot this year and feel confident going forward, had i have been actually putting money on everything i did i would have ended the year 160 pts in profit...
Happy New Year everyone.
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End of Nov update
Lay u1.5 goals - now 33pts up for the year so down a couple this month
LTD 1st half only - now 44pts up for the year so up 1 pt this month
BTTS - now 39 pts up so down a couple in Nov
Lay Away - now at 42 pts up so a huge 16pts up this month and means overall i end the month with a small profit
I also have a Serie A over 2.5 goals set and forget that i have been paper trading since start of season and that is 11pts up currently... hopefully be able to go live with this in Jan if it keeps going strong.
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@Shannon-Townsend brilliant!
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End of month 10
Lay u1.5 goals - now 36pts up so up 3 pts on last month
LTD 1st half only - now 43pts up so up 5pts from last month
BTTS - now 43pts up so just 1pt up this month
Lay Away - now at 26pts so same as last month
overall still slowly going in the right direction...
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@Andy-Donnelly 1 or 2 a day over last few months but hoping that may increase with European leagues beginning to show up...
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@Shannon-Townsend Thanks for sharing. How many selections do you get a month on average?
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Cheers, all stratagies seem to have quite a lot of variance but if heading the right direction i will take that...
My Lay under 1.5 follows the baove but will not lay at odds of more than 3... when i get some more results i will dive deeper in to the results and see if tweaking could improve it... it is my 1st half LTD that i have the most faith in at the minute...
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@Shannon-Townsend Amazing results there, well done!
What filter settings and odds do you use for the 1.5 goals strategy out of interest? I’ve had a few cracks at that market and haven’t been able to make it work for one reason or another
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@Shannon-Townsend and we are back in business -
Lay u1.5 goals - now 33pts up so down recovered last months loss
LTD 1st half only - now 38pts up so up 13 pts from last month and loads more selections coming through
BTTS - now 42pts so recovered from last month
Lay Away - now at 26pts so up 5pts
all seem to have a lot of varience but 9 months in to this and they are all in profit so excited to see what having the big leagues back does to this...
Live trading also coming along nicely and getting better at spotting genuine opportunities.
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@Shannon-Townsend big leagues will be kicking in soon!
