*****New Football Thread*****
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@Joe-Beeston without testing this hypothesis (using software or the good old-fashioned way of monitoring odds movement/time decay and relative strike rates etc), there's no real way of actually knowing the answer to this. I've learned to take the approach that if a market has pre-match value, then you can carry that forward into the in-play markets to help better manage positions, "control" losses, and eek out extra profit. I know people who use this exact approach and have done extremely well out of it.
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Layed Villa for £5 when they 1 nil up.
Trade came good.
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@Shannon-Townsend that's twice now and I wasn't on either
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@Simon-Bates Everton the dream 2up matched betting strategy team at the minute
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When Everton went 2 nil up today, I layed £10 on them.
After Villa had scored their 3rd I just cashed out.
I like these trades
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@Akiva-Anderson Anyone think AI could destroy the betting industry more than the betting industry has already done?
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I’ve also went for a SHG in the Real Betis v Leganes match
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Going for a SHG in the St Etienne v Lille match.
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@Joe-Beeston Hi Joe,I certainly would do as then you would have an idea of the odds you need to achieve at the new entry point.
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Hypothetical situation with testing over 1.5.
If we have a strike rate of 80%, the break even is 1.25 odds. After reviewing the average first goal time, I decide not to enter until the 15th minute. Is there a risk that the 80% no longer stands as this could have been gained because of goals scored in the first 15 minutes, which I would no longer be getting by entering later?
Would you essentially have to rework your strike rate from the new entry point?
Hopefully that makes sense.
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AI generated?
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le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@Simon-Bates said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Akiva-Anderson nice
SHG?
I normally don't do a SHG if a team has a two goal lead or more
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Club football is back!! Baruch HaShem!
Though I did quite well during the international break, but club football is my bread and butter.
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@Akiva-Anderson said in *****New Football Thread*****:
Going for Over 1.5 goals in the Harrogate v Doncaster Rovers match tonight
Nice!
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@Simon-Bates said in *****New Football Thread*****:
@Martin would you do a more detailed video in the future on trying this kind of approach to trading, trading on the losing favourite, I think it would be interesting to see.
Got a podcast that's already uploaded coming out on Tuesday funnily enough! Make sure to listen to it.
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@Martin I see where you are coming from and the only place I could find stats for this game was on 365. It was a fairly lively game first half and it met the criteria you mentioned in you SHG video earlier in the year so I was originally looking at backing the SHG. To be honest the game came up in a strategy I am working on looking at LTD, FHG and Lay the half time draw so I already had a little tickle on it.
It was only 6 games into the season so it was probably a little bit early to taking league positions etc. into account but I felt that having won 6 of 6 Jena would be worth a look at for the turn around rather than backing the FHG.
Also odds of 6.4 seemed very big, lucky for me I managed to take the liability out when they went 2-1 up thanks to @Greg-Mitchell reminding me to do it in his post
Thanks for your input Martin. -
@Martin would you do a more detailed video in the future on trying this kind of approach to trading, trading on the losing favourite, I think it would be interesting to see.
