1ST Strategy inspired by Super trader vid
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@Jon-Kinnear said in 1ST Strategy inspired by Super trader vid:
@Martin Thanks, been loving it since rejoining BTC.
Love that!
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Fatih Karagumruk Istanbul v Antalyaspor 1.37 lay under 0.5fhg 3.75 took 3.70 on overs....1 late fhg for scratch
Universidad Cesar Vallejo v Sporting Cristal 1.42 lay under 0.5fhg 3.40 (wont be awake to trade this, will lowball over 1.5fhg odds as 4.20 if 0-0 at 15 mins)... early goal in this one for an easy point profit.new total +9.70 points
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@Jon-Kinnear really good start here well done!
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Atalanta 1.38 lay under 0.5 fhg 3.65 over 1.5 fhg at 4.30...late pen in 1st half for scratch
PAOK 1.43 lay under 0.5 fhg 3.30...Early goal for +1 point
Millonarios 1.45 lay under 0.5 fhg 3.25...1 fhg for scratch1 point profit for the day
new total is +8.70 points -
Sampdoria (w) 1.36 3.75 to lay under 0.5 fhg.... Early goal wins 1 point
Gornik Zabrze v LKS Lodz 1.35 3.90 to lay u 0.5 fhg back Over 1.5 fhg 3.85...2fhg's for +3.79 points
St Etienne v Caen 1.43 3.30 to lay under 0.5 fhg... Early goal wins 1 point
Wolves v Luton 1.34 3.95 to lay under 0.5 fhg back over 1.5 fhg 4.30... 1-0 HT for scratch
Panaitolikos v Atromitos 1.45 3.25 to lay under 0.5 fhg back over 1.5 fhg 4.70...no goals in 1st half -3.25 points
Hull v Ipswich 1.38 3.65 to lay under 0.5 fhg back over 1.5 fhg 4.00... 2 fhg's +3.96 pointsfinal result for today +6.50 points
total +7.70 points -
Chengdu Lay under 0.5 fhg odds 3.95 + £2.38 due to pre match trade out, would have won £10.00 if had kept the original bet, but it was the right choice to trade out for a small green.
Frosinone Lay under 0.5 fhg odds 4.00 + £10.00 due to win from under 0.5 fhg lay after 10 min pen for the home sideGood start +1.2 pts for the day
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Chengdu Lay under 0.5 fhg odds 3.95
This game has had a big price shift under 0.5 fhg is now showing as 5.20, which is an issue as over 1.5 fhg has drifted down to close to evens, we want the over back price 1.5fhg to be near the same or more than the under 0.5 lay price at the 15 min mark if 0-0, in this scenario its not going to be.
I would trade out of chengdu (not actually on it as just paper trading for now)
3.95 lay - 5.20 back gives £2.38 profit after comission of 2% from a £10.21 bet -
Have 2 qualifiers today.
Chengdu Lay under 0.5 fhg odds 3.95
Frosinone Lay under 0.5 fhg odds 4.00 -
@Jon-Kinnear yes I completely am with you there!
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@Martin Thanks its, Its great to be back , a bit wiser and with more experience. I have 2 more strategies to work on this time around, The problem with just having one , is my mind starts looking for alternatives when its not going well, its such an easy trap to fall into.
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@Jon-Kinnear welcome back! It's amazing how often if we had stuck to the initial plan we would have been better off isn't it. Good luck with this moving forward, keep us updated!
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OK, so this is my OG FHG strategy, i had a really good run with it, but ruined it by altering the strategy, i ended up blowing 70% of my at the time fairly large bank, funny thing is if id had just stuck to one of the 3 methods i kept switching between i would have still made money. Took a long while to come back to BTC after that failure.
With this strategy i tend to get alot of games with 2 fhg, and alot of games with a goal in first 15 mins.
I place a lay bet for 1 pt + 2% b4 KO under 0.5 fhg
If 0-0 at 15 mins i place a back bet on over 1.5 fhgmy data shows that games where both bets are matched its roughly 50/50 wins 2 goals vs loses 0 goals
any game with an early goal wins 1 point, and there are many.Filters Used
Ov. H1 Over 0.5 Goals % > = 75
Ov. Matches played > = 6
Ov. Goal Attempts Per Match H1 Ave > = 10
Ov. Corners Per Match H1 Ave > = 5Scope last 10
restrict to going inplay
exclude playoffs
odds range is 1.33-1.45 for over 0.5 fhgwill start tracking this again from tomorrow
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@jon-kinnear think lots of people got stung by euro leagues ending. At least you will know next time!
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Had a bad month this month, which wiped out the previous 2 months profit, maybe the euro leagues coming to an end affected the results somewhat, but also changing my strategy mostly through entry point variations definatly cost me, if i had kept the strategy the same, regardless of which variation i would have done much better.
As i'm still collecting data for this strategy i'm not too bothered at this point, as my aim is to have a decent strategy that makes 5+ points a monthby the end of next year.
I have time and now is ok to make mistakes and learn from them.My data is still solid, I have a profitable strategy. I just realy need to stick to 1 set strategy.
What ive decided to do for June onwards.
Lay under 0.5 fhg b4 KO for £10.21
Lay over 1.5 fhg b4 KO for £10.00if no goal after 14 mins back over 1.5 goals for £20.00 before the 16th min
if early goal goes in i will trade out of the Lay over 1.5 goals for 65%-100% of stake resulting in a small win- evens
if 1 goal only after 15 mins scratch
if 2 goals after 15 mins win roughly 5.40 points average 65 wins 70 losses after 286 games ( still a small sample and dont know how the summer leagues will perform, but its definatly solid so far)
if 0-0 ht lose 3.60 points on averageby doing it this way i cover myself against early goals while at the same time adding value to the over 1.5 fhg.
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@jon-kinnear amazing to be 4pts up with lots of mistakes! Well done
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Update on my trading for this month,
Currently 4 points ahead for the month, despite making a bunch of mistakes..
have overtraded.
bet too big on selections that dont have enough data.
have randomly just had bets on certain games without any research.Despite my errors, my main strategy is doing well.
the lay 0-0 ht and back 1-1 ht strategy is underperforming since testing begun..
so far 2 winners and 8 losses, with 19 scratch trades. despite only winning 20% these are still a few points ahead.
average loser is under 2.50 average winner is 11.50 so getting over 4/1 on these sometimes as much as 6/1 so the value seems to be there, even whilst underperforming.Decided to create a new set of filters, giving myself a bit more to focus on, hopefully this will stop me from making some more errors.
Will be ineresting to see if i can create a second set of profitable filters using the knowledge gained from my origanal set.
The new filters will again be for FHG markets, as these are my favourite to trade, this will just be data collection to begin with. -
@jon-kinnear yeah agree scratch a whole lot better than a loss!
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@martin
not enough data for those yet, but most yesterday were 10.00 -14.00 at 15 mins with the 0-0 ht being around 2.50 -2.70 but only tracked a few so cant get a solid number yet.could potentially be frustrating to bet these as lots of scatch trades, i dont mind scratches its just tedious sometimes when you get a long run of them.
another thing is liqiudity could rule out some selections as the HT CS market isnt too popular.