rugby....Rugby...RUGBY!(Union)
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Ive started keeping a record of all rugby(15s and 7s) I find on betfair. The parameters Im starting out with are, wait for it ALL rugby. Home team favourite (in the 7s, home team is team listed first) with odds between 1.25 and 1.5. Setting and forgetting...
Edit- Ive set the bot up with a £1 back(and a 200 volume condition) and will now be backing(and recording) ALL home teams. 7s is still on the outer, too random and not enough volume...
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October. On 50, won 33 for a 66% SR and 4 point gain. Missed friday 18th, Saturday 19th as was on holiday. Running total, 27 points to the good...things looking good with filtering to come...
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September saw the return of the northern rugby comps and 38 wins from 56 matches(68% SR). 8 point gain for the month, +22 since I started. Recorded just over 400 games now, looking forward to getting on a stack more this winter to get things moving along....
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August saw 12 wins from 24 games for a 50% strike rate and a 6 point loss(running total, 15 points to the good). Once again internationals letting the side down....but helped out by a poorly performing NPC and Currie cup. Those southern teams just dont seem to like winning at home. Missing a lot of games through lack of liquidity(which may not be a bad thing!)
Highlights- My NPC team Waikato upsetting foes Auckland. Well, the odds would say its an upset
Lowlight- All Blacks losing to South Africa, although it was a cracking game. I got tired just watching it...
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July was mainly international rugby(inc U 20 WC) and finished with only my second losing month since I started recording.
26 games,14 wins, 12 losses for a 54% win record....a good reason not to trade internationals! Having said that it was only a 1 point loss so not a total write off.
On the up side the SA Currie cup has started(although not very well from a trading perspective!) and the NZ NPC kicks off next week. Fingers crossed for liquidity
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June
37 games- 27 wins, 10 losses for a 73% SR and a 4 point gain. Total bank to date +23 pointsRoll on the international break(that sounded a bit footbally!) ABs v England, should be a goodie...
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May
58 games- 36 wins, 22 losses for a 62% SR and a 2 point gain. Total bank to date +19 pointsWith just over 250 matches traded I did a quick number crunch and the optimum odds range at this early stage would be 1.35- 4.9 for a home team win. And If I was to consider dumping a competition it would have to be the premiership. Home teams have performed poorly in England. Stand out leagues, Top 14 and Super rugby. Ill get a few more results before changing things though. This is quite fun
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A shortened April(from 20th) broke down to...
43 games- 27 wins, 16 losses for a 64% strike rate and a 3 point gain.Average odds taken 2.43.
Roll on summer!
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Very much interested in this!
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What a difference a slight change of tactics makes
March gave me...
64 games- 42 wins, 22 losses for a 66% strike rate. The second lowest strike rate since I started recording. But by for the biggest profit month with a 12 point gain. The bot is still set for a £1 back of any home team with odds over 1.1(and a low volume condition)Biggest upset was the Western force beating the Reds in Super rugby. The Force were going off at 5.56.
Average odds taken 2.2
I know its not the end of the month btw! But am off to New Zealand on Wednesday for 3 weeks so all recording will cease until I get back...
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Well, my back every home team has gotten off to a flyer!
Super rugby
Drua beating Crusaders
Red beating Chiefs
6 nations
Italy beating Scotland
England beating IrelandAll what I would class major upsets and Im up 14 points for the weekend. If only it wasnt 50p stakes
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@Tony-Hastie you could record the results without putting money on to get more data
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February was a much better month, less games though!
10 games- 9 wins, 1 loss for a 90% SR
Adding 3 point to the bank.
And good to see some Super rugby pacific popping up...including a excellent opening season win from the mighty Chiefs vs the Crusaders(defending champions)@Martin taking your 1000 results before a strategy is fully tested into account would it be beneficial for me to broaden my criteria(to maybe back every home team) just to accumulate data quicker? 4 months has netted me just shy of 80 results...at this rate Ill have to hand things over to my grandkids to continue long after my death
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@Tony-Hastie Its only because its a home Olympics for DuPont! Doubt many players would go to sevens for Olympics much generally!
Yeh England lay gone out. Still could come in next week so possibly still an entry to come. Would expect England to beat Wales and then lose their last two
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@Tony-Hastie surprised people are dropping out for 7s is that big now?
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@Andy-Donnelly 24-27...that didnt bring the lay price down any
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@Tony-Hastie Yeh I read it the same way. France and Ireland are a class above despite some notable omissions. I’d probably have Scotland marginal 3rd favs, then England after that
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@Andy-Donnelly Cant see England winning it tbh. The draw helped them in the WC and thats probably why they are shorter than you expect. Hard to go past Ireland and France...although Ireland will need to perform without Sexton(I think they will) and Ive just heard Dupont has made himself unavailable for 6 nations to concentrate on 7s. He is world class and will be missed...
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@Tony-Hastie What’s your view on the six nations?
I really want to get on an England lay on the outrights. Just think the market is wrong on them. Price was hovering around 7 last week but now 8.4. Personally think England should be more like 14-15. Just debating with myself whether to place trade pre tournament or hope they win the opener and get in when the price comes in a bit.
