rugby....Rugby...RUGBY!(Union)
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@Andy-Donnelly Cant see England winning it tbh. The draw helped them in the WC and thats probably why they are shorter than you expect. Hard to go past Ireland and France...although Ireland will need to perform without Sexton(I think they will) and Ive just heard Dupont has made himself unavailable for 6 nations to concentrate on 7s. He is world class and will be missed...
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@Tony-Hastie What’s your view on the six nations?
I really want to get on an England lay on the outrights. Just think the market is wrong on them. Price was hovering around 7 last week but now 8.4. Personally think England should be more like 14-15. Just debating with myself whether to place trade pre tournament or hope they win the opener and get in when the price comes in a bit.
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Worst month since my Records began...
19 games caught, 10 wins for a measly 53%(rounded up!) SR and a 5 point loss for the month.
Overall loss 2 points.Roll on the six nations...
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Decemeber:-
28 games- 20 wins, 8 losses for a 71% SR
Adding 1 point to the bank.Tempted to tweak things...but know I shouldnt! But if I was going to, changing the odds range to 1.3-1.6 would be beneficial.
But Im not going to
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November bounty, 17 wins out of 21 games backed(home team fave, odds 1.25-1.65) for an 81% strike rate and a 2 point gain. Good to be getting on some games again...
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Righto, WC over....back into it....
Ive automated the £1 stake on the home fav with odds between 1.25 and 1.65 chucked in a (low) volume condition and set the bot to back 10 sec before the start. So wont miss games(and should get a truer representation of odds), unless I forget to load the weekend games! As a result I wont be recording the lay side of things anymore. Attempting to work smarter not harder
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@Jonathan-West I couldnt trade that mate, totally glued to my seat for the entire game. Massive win for the ABs against a brilliant Irish side. Very Happy household here
I did have a free bet I punted on the ABs though does that count as trading?
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@Tony-Hastie how's the RWC treating you? It's been very kind to me so far. Just about to watch and trade the Ireland v NZ game. Ireland too short at the start for me but we'll see
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Augusts results mirror July in almost every department.
The much anticipated start of the NZ NPC has been hugely disappointing volume wise with games barely having a tenner matched on them when I head to bed! The French Top 14 has started but a similar volume problem is apparent...
As I get more into my horse racing it feels, that with Rugby Im beating my head against a brick wall trying to make something of it.
Im off to the Rugby World cup in France for a couple of weeks so will be taking a break from trading , and recording rugby results until after someone wins it all. That may be extended until the top flight British competitions start up again(whenever that is)
Rugby looks to have a (northern hemisphere) seasonal trading life though. In the meantime Im off to the races
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Another slow rugby month...
5 games in odds parameters, 4 wins one loss for an 80% SR
Back home up .5 of a point, Lay away scratchOverall Back home up 2.83, lay away down 2.86
Overall SR 76.42And a big shout out to my old rugby club from Cambridge, NZ who beat 9x defending champions Hamilton Marist to claim the Waikato club rugby title!
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A very short update this month only managing to get on 4 games. Was hoping the U20 world cup would offer a few games but liquidity was once again an issue.
4 games, won 3 lost 1=75% SR. Scratch for the back home, up 1 point for lay away
Overall SR unchanged @ 75%. Back up 3, lay down 3.Roll on the rugby championship...
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Thats May done and its a loss...
Backing home team down 2 points,
Laying the away team down 23 points
(Overall- SR, 76%. Back home up 3. Lay away down 4)
Even with the expanded home team odds (1.25-1.65) I only caught 25 games this month- 16 wins, 9 losses for a 64% strike rate. Interestingly, none of the games over 1.5 lost...
Im dropping 7s, the liquidity is just not there. Ive seen games that are kicking off in 40 minutes having 0 liquidity and taking a few ridiculous lay prices on the 7s is partly the reason the lay away did so badly
Interesting to note 2 of the major northern competitions wrapping up with finals this month...
Both home team favourites fell within the odds parameters(just). In the European Champions cup Leinster went off at 1.34 and lost. In the United rugby championships the Stormers were even shorter favourites at 1.25 and lost.With the northern season coming to an end heres hoping betfair carries some of the Southern leagues
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@tony-hastie Wow that'll make scaling it harder, but that's a solid start on the laying the away team!
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Thought Id post a summery of results monthly. Heres April...
Managed to catch 30 games within my parameters-won 26, lost 4 for an 86.67% strike rate.
Backing the home team is up 5 points for the month
Laying the away team is up 19 pointsObservations Ive made during that time...
Liquidity in rugby is LOW causing quite a large discrepancy in the lay odds which ranged between 3.35 amd 6.4. Would only take a few losses at 6 to wipe out the lay profit.
7s rugby is very hard to catch on betfair. The time zones dont help and the markets dont seem to be open for long so didnt catch many games.Moving on from here I think I will expand my criteria to home OR away team favourite, continuing to back with £1 and paper trade a £1 lay as nothing is really standing out to change at this early stage. Detailed results available on request...if you promise not to laugh at my basic spreadsheet
Edit- Ive had a rethink on my next step forward. Decided that rather than testing the away team favourites as well I will instead increase my odds parameter and continue backing the home team fav/laying the away team. New Odds range 1.25-1.65...should catch a few more games...
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I'd be very interested in these results if available
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@tony-hastie I'll be keeping an eye on this, I know nothing about the gym mind!
