BTC Cricket Trading Thread
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Anyone thinking additional trades
Laying AUS maybe low risk as overs get reduced -
@Richard-Futter of course. If it was genuinely 0% we'll be printing money!
I just meant it's strange how quickly the draw price dropped but the score predictions don't reflect that
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@Dan-MacKinnon i had a bit of 12.5early doors...now 7.8 so could green up but only small bet so I ll take me chances I think!!
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@Dan-MacKinnon Certainly not 0 per cent; that's impossible. Can never rely on weather forecasts to that extent.
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The draw price has dropped from 13 to 8. But all the predictions suggest 0% chance of a draw?
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Weather forecast s vary quite a bit. BBC and Met Office reckon there's very little chance of rain during playing hours after midday..... and Edgbaston will dry out very quickly if they're right. Judging by the radar I prefer their reading of the situation to the AccuWeather app, which is quite often way off beam. Don't forget they can play on till after 7 tonight, because there will be a minimum amount of overs which have to be bowled (normally 90 overs in a full day) so unless there's a long delay to the start a positive result looks near certain.
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@Karl-Pick Is it worth doing a small back of the draw?
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@Martin just be careful laying the DRAW....BBC reporter has just said, Those in the know, having studied the radars, are suggesting a start time after lunch.
That contradicts what was said Yesterday when the weathermen said they would be Ok until 5pm before torrential storms...that would leave a Window of Max 4hours.....this would make an Australian Victory near impossible the way they are currently playing, England would need 7 wickets in a session and a bit and the DRAW the most probable outcome!
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@stuart-wallace-0 Been raining pretty heavily in Birmingham for the past three hours and looking at the radar, there could be light drizzle until midday. Gonna take some clearing up I would think. But we'll know more when they go to air at around 10.15. There's a slight chance of further showery rain throughout the rest of the day, so I wouldn't jump with any big money at the current price of around 11.
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Am i missing something ?
170 runs to get, so , 2 sessions? Any rain is only forecast at 17.00.
Draw hovering at 10, yet to me there is zero chance of a draw.? Doesnt make sense.
Any thoughts? -
@Fraser-cord I'd agree
I'm at work so hard to keep track and if the weather did change I likely won't see it coming.
Worth looking at the forecast Tomo.
In tests there are often points where it's an obvious outcome as not a draw and there is chance to lay it.
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@Gavin-Rumsey said in BTC Cricket Trading Thread:
@Dan-MacKinnon I happily lay at that price at times
I'd still say it's good for Tomo but with the unknown of the rain I've held off getting involved as it could change so for me I'll just wait for another opportunity.
Very useful to know. As a rookie i didnt go in this morning and couldnt believe how fast it climbed, il know for next time i suppose.
They are saying 1% chance of a draw, so laying at 12 is surely still value. But yes the weather being the big unknown.Draw was above 20 at points today, a couple of wickets and it will surely climb fast again.
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@Dan-MacKinnon I happily lay at that price at times
I'd still say it's good for Tomo but with the unknown of the rain I've held off getting involved as it could change so for me I'll just wait for another opportunity.
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@Nathan-Bennett @Richard-Futter thanks for the responses. I was thinking more about upper limits to LTD. I ask because with the horse racing it’s not uncommon to lay at odds of 15.
Looking at the draw price around 9.6 it seems quite low considering the possibility of there being a draw from this position. Or is the risk vs reward not worth it?
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Boom boom - lovely jubbly!
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Boom.
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The Aussies look short at 1.58 to me. Worth a small lay surely.
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@Dan-MacKinnon Only when it's about to rain heavily I would say. Otherwise I would hardly ever back the draw in a Test match, except in the women's Tests which often seem to end in a draw. The one this week might not, however, as it's over five days as opposed to the usual four.
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@Dan-MacKinnon yes ! plenty opportunities to back to lay draws
A lot of feel to it
Partnerships in certain game situations are a key this -
My LTD is showing a nice green right now.
