1ST Strategy inspired by Super trader vid
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@jon-kinnear like this idea, maximising potential
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Have been analyzing the data for this set of filters so far, and think i can do a bit more with it.
During the first half when im able to trade im going to start tracking the odds for over 2.5 goals at 15min + 30mins, My results so far seem to indicate that frodes over 2.5 goals strategy may work with these selections, So im going to track this and find out.
Im also going to track the over0.5 and over1.5 1st half goal odds at 15mins + 30mins, As i have alot of games with 2 1st half goals after 15mins, and about 1 in 9 with 2 goals after 30 mins.
this basically means im testing 8 strategies from 1 set of filters, which i feel will increase the chances of me finding something that is profitable.
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Peterborough v Charlton 1.38 lose
Overall profit/loss -£11.36
53 wins
21 losses
ROI -1.53%
Strikerate 71.62%No selections now untill friday.
I have been monitoring a CS strategy based on these filters, so far
13 wins average odds 8.4
12 losses average odds 4.3
Strategy has lots of scratch trades.
need more games to know if its profitable as could just be a freak run of results, could easily swing the other way within a week. This is the one that im most excited for. -
@jon-kinnear said in 1ST Strategy inspired by Super trader vid:
@martin Yeah just shows not to get carried away based on a small sample of results, gonna keep grinding away with this until i have at least 300 games.
spot on!
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one selection for today
Peterborough v Charlton 1.38 -
@jon-kinnear interesting stuff this, shows the nature of variance quite well
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Melbourne V 1.36 lose
Lausanne 1.34 win
Luzern 1.32 lose
Aarau 1.34 lose
Vitesse 1.35 win
Lugano 1.39 win
RWDM vs Lierse 1.34 lose
Santos laguna error not part of current filters
Zeledon cant find result?Total profit/loss -£1.36
53 wins
20 losses
ROI -0.18%
Strikerate 72.60%Bit of a turnaround was -£33.87 after 51 games was then £28 ahead after 10/10 winners on saturday. Not sure which way this is going to go long term but getting some solid data for other strategies.
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great day for these yesterday10/10 really turned around, will update the stats tomorrow.
todays selections
Melbourne V 1.36 lose
Lausanne 1.34
Luzern 1.32
Aarau 1.34
Vitesse 1.35
Lugano 1.39
RWDM vs Lierse 1.34
Santos laguna no liquid yet
Zeledon no liquid yet -
Resovia Rzeszow v Gornik Leczna 1.51win
Pisa v Perugia 1.58 win
Mazatlan FC v Pumas UNAM 1.40 win
Western Sydney Wanderers v Macarthur FC didnt get the odds so will discard this one, it won thoughTodays selections
Holstein Kiel v Paderborn 1.35
Oxford Utd v Bristol Rovers 1.40
Hoffenheim v Dortmund 1.32
Shrewsbury v Wycombe 1.53
Kilmarnock v Motherwell 1.53
Hamilton v Queens Park 1.39
Morton v Cove Rangers 1.45
Zaglebie Sosnowiec v GKS Katowice 1.47
Sion v St Gallen 1.33
Westerlo v Union St Gilloise 1.41will update weekend results on monday
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Santos Laguna v Toluca 1.33 win
profit/loss -£30.64
ROI -5.89%
Strikerate 69.23%Todays selections
Resovia Rzeszow v Gornik Leczna 1.51
Pisa v Perugia 1.58
Early Sat selections
Mazatlan FC v Pumas UNAM 1.40
Western Sydney Wanderers v Macarthur FC no liquidity yet -
@jon-kinnear maybe create a copy and restrict slightly less and compare the two, see what works better
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Not long after creating this strategy, i ran into the issue of way too many selections.
My solution to narrow selections was to tighten the filters up.Ov. H1 Over 0.5 Goals % > = 80 5% increase
Ov. Matches played > = 10 no change
Ov. Goal Attempts Per Match H1 Ave > = 10 +2 increase
Ov. Corners Per Match H1 Ave > = 5 +2 increaseThese changes removed about 75% of selections.But im wondering if maybe i tightened up too much.
With this in mind i'm going to start tracking games for...
Ov. H1 Over 0.5 Goals % > = 75-79 just to see if the results match up with the current filter.
will not post these extra games, just want to get the data for them.1 game for early friday, Santos Laguna v Toluca 1.33
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results from yesterday and early hours of today
Naestved 1.36 lose
St gallen 1.33 win
Salernitana 1.47 lose
Lausanne 1.34 win
Club america 1.32 win
Pachuca 1.35 win
35 wins
16 losses
total profit/loss -£33.87
ROI -6.64%
Strikerate 68.62%So far after 51 results, this is looking like it will be a solid +5% ROI lay over 0.5 first half goals set and forget strategy. will be interesting to see if it continues in this way.Strike rate seems fairly consistant so far always around 65-70%
I have identified a strong second half Correct score strategy that would have made 20+ points over this run of 51 games will be tracking the odds on those.
No selections until friday now
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RKC Waalwijk v Fortuna Sittard 1.41 lose
Yellow-Red Mechelen v Genk 1.36 win
Macarthur FC v Newcastle Jets 1.33 win
Perth 1.35 win
Hvidovre 1.29 win
Trofense 1.49 win
Celtic 1.24 win
Ayr 1.45 win
Al jazira 1.32 lose
Adelaide 1.40 win31 wins
14 losses
profit/loss -£26.99
ROI -5.99%
Strikerate 68.88% -
Adelaide 1.40
Naestved 1.36
St gallen 1.33
Salernitana 1.47
Lausanne 1.34
Club america 1.32
Pachuca 1.35 -
tomorrows selections
Adelaide
Naestved
St gallen
Salernitana
Lausanne
Club america
Pachuca -
Todays selections
Perth 1.35
Hvidovre 1.29
Trofense 1.49
Celtic 1.24
Ayr 1.45
Al jazira 1.32
not much time today so will update the results tomorrow. -
RKC Waalwijk v Fortuna Sittard 1.41
Yellow-Red Mechelen v Genk 1.36
Early saturday
Macarthur FC v Newcastle Jets1.33will be another 6 selections for saturday, which will take the total games to 44