The BTC Football Trading Thread

[Mr. Emmet Moorehouse]

@martin It makes stop loss planning that little bit harder i.e. we don't really know how long is left in a game.

[Richard Latimer]

Lay under 1.5 GBK (Fin)

[A Former User]

This post is deleted!

[A Former User]

@martin on top of the now pointless last 10 minutes of every game now we have 5 subs.

They should go back to just having one and be done with it

[Martin]

yipee more water breaks in Prem games this week!

[Nick Allan]

@chris-osborne it as meant more of a joke, if man u came up in my selections i would do a deep dive like i do before placing any trades

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Lay Under 1.5:

Win

[A Former User]

@nick-allan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@andy-donnelly one thing i know from supporting Chelsea over the years is that form can be sketchy. Mind you think ive avoid man u trades this season

Even laying Man Utd?

[Andy Donnelly]

Can’t wait for the backtesting on the football! Will make things like this so much easier to analyse

[Nick Allan]

@andy-donnelly one thing i know from supporting Chelsea over the years is that form can be sketchy. Mind you think ive avoid man u trades this season

[Andy Donnelly]

@keith-anderson Doing both SHG and O1.5. Superettan struggling on both.

It’s a fair point, I’ll do a deep dive in the data and see if it can be linked to specific teams rather than just the whole league

[A Former User]

Does anyone do anything with EV (Expected Value) Ive just attempted to add it to my excel data sets but just looking to talk to someone to Check if along the right lines. Just with my filter i look for O1.5 That are below 1.25 before KO then look to get matchec at 1.25 in play

So for my EV i am doing this below. Just checking this is right and its useful. Its just when i get matched at 1.25 in play theres less time for goals so is it really postive EV or not ?

EV= (Profit x Probability ) + ( Loss x Probability)

so for my trades for example a game is 1.18 pre match so calculate it as

EV = (2.45 x (1/1.18)) + (-10 x (1-(1/1.18))
EV= 2.076 + (-1.525)
EV=£0.551

Does anyone know if this looks right

[Akiva Anderson]

@andy-donnelly said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

How many games do people wanna see before discounting a league?

The superettan was already on the watch list and the last two nights have killed my filters. Have about 20-30 games of data from that league and the SR is well below all other leagues that I have included. Is that enough to make a judgment?

What's the strategy? I sometimes do different strategies for different leagues. Also, there are leagues I don't enjoy trading, but there are teams from those leagues I love trading. Have a look at your results, are there teams rather than leagues you shouldn't be trading?

[Andy Donnelly]

@nick-allan sure, thanks. How many games would you want to see before culling a league out of interest?

[Nick Allan]

@andy-donnelly what i recommend is paper trade them andy just to see if it is variance and at the beginning of the thier new season do the same for 8 games. As i say leagues have variance but do need to be kept an eye on

[Ryan]

My HT LTD/HT LCS for today

[Richard Latimer]

Lay Under 1.5:

[Andy Donnelly]

@chris-osborne How do you mean up the strike rate?

@Nick-Allan thanks, maybe I’ll temporarily remove the games but keep tracking the results in case there is a swing. The SR is so far below all other leagues at the moment that don’t have confidence in trading that league for the timebeing. May well be variance but don’t think it’s anything to do with time of the season

[A Former User]

@andy-donnelly maybe up the strike rate you want before taking a trade

[Nick Allan]

@andy-donnelly id want a lot more data personally, what i would do is lower stakes and keep reviewing, could be just variance? Are the league coming to an end? maybe teams have nothing to play for and are not performing?