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The BTC Football Trading Thread

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved Football Trading
42.9k Posts 268 Posters 3.4m Views
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  • M Offline
    M Offline
    Mr. Emmet Moorehouse
    replied to Martin on last edited by
    #4841

    @martin It makes stop loss planning that little bit harder i.e. we don't really know how long is left in a game.

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Online
    Richard LatimerR Online
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #4842

    Lay under 1.5 GBK (Fin)

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    Richard LatimerR 1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #4843
    This post is deleted!
    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Martin on last edited by
    #4844

    @martin on top of the now pointless last 10 minutes of every game now we have 5 subs.

    They should go back to just having one and be done with it

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • MartinM Offline
    MartinM Offline
    Martin btc team
    wrote on last edited by
    #4845

    yipee more water breaks in Prem games this week!

    ? M 2 Replies Last reply
    0
  • N Offline
    N Offline
    Nick Allan
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #4846

    @chris-osborne it as meant more of a joke, if man u came up in my selections i would do a deep dive like i do before placing any trades

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  • Richard LatimerR Online
    Richard LatimerR Online
    Richard Latimer
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #4847

    @richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

    Lay Under 1.5:

    0_1660088086985_d164e1cc-2d7b-495a-901e-d0b891cb8cf2-image.png

    Win

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Nick Allan on last edited by
    #4848

    @nick-allan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

    @andy-donnelly one thing i know from supporting Chelsea over the years is that form can be sketchy. Mind you think ive avoid man u trades this season 😂

    Even laying Man Utd?

    N 1 Reply Last reply
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  • A Offline
    A Offline
    Andy Donnelly
    wrote on last edited by
    #4849

    Can’t wait for the backtesting on the football! Will make things like this so much easier to analyse 😜

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • N Offline
    N Offline
    Nick Allan
    replied to Andy Donnelly on last edited by
    #4850

    @andy-donnelly one thing i know from supporting Chelsea over the years is that form can be sketchy. Mind you think ive avoid man u trades this season 😂

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
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  • A Offline
    A Offline
    Andy Donnelly
    replied to Akiva Anderson on last edited by
    #4851

    @keith-anderson Doing both SHG and O1.5. Superettan struggling on both.

    It’s a fair point, I’ll do a deep dive in the data and see if it can be linked to specific teams rather than just the whole league

    N 1 Reply Last reply
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #4852

    Does anyone do anything with EV (Expected Value) Ive just attempted to add it to my excel data sets but just looking to talk to someone to Check if along the right lines. Just with my filter i look for O1.5 That are below 1.25 before KO then look to get matchec at 1.25 in play

    So for my EV i am doing this below. Just checking this is right and its useful. Its just when i get matched at 1.25 in play theres less time for goals so is it really postive EV or not ?

    EV= (Profit x Probability ) + ( Loss x Probability)

    so for my trades for example a game is 1.18 pre match so calculate it as

    EV = (2.45 x (1/1.18)) + (-10 x (1-(1/1.18))
    EV= 2.076 + (-1.525)
    EV=£0.551

    Does anyone know if this looks right

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • Akiva AndersonA Offline
    Akiva AndersonA Offline
    Akiva Anderson
    replied to Andy Donnelly on last edited by
    #4853

    @andy-donnelly said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

    How many games do people wanna see before discounting a league?

    The superettan was already on the watch list and the last two nights have killed my filters. Have about 20-30 games of data from that league and the SR is well below all other leagues that I have included. Is that enough to make a judgment?

    What's the strategy? I sometimes do different strategies for different leagues. Also, there are leagues I don't enjoy trading, but there are teams from those leagues I love trading. Have a look at your results, are there teams rather than leagues you shouldn't be trading?

    le jeu avant tout

    Am Yisrael Chai

    When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
    But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game...

    A 1 Reply Last reply
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  • A Offline
    A Offline
    Andy Donnelly
    replied to Nick Allan on last edited by
    #4854

    @nick-allan sure, thanks. How many games would you want to see before culling a league out of interest?

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • N Offline
    N Offline
    Nick Allan
    replied to Andy Donnelly on last edited by
    #4855

    @andy-donnelly what i recommend is paper trade them andy just to see if it is variance and at the beginning of the thier new season do the same for 8 games. As i say leagues have variance but do need to be kept an eye on

    A 1 Reply Last reply
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  • RyanR Offline
    RyanR Offline
    Ryan
    wrote on last edited by
    #4856

    My HT LTD/HT LCS for today
    0_1660104538363_d89f99e8-a5c2-4326-8ed3-25206bed3d5a-image.png

    Founder of BTC - Pro Trader - Main Sports Tennis and Football

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Richard LatimerR Online
    Richard LatimerR Online
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #4857

    Lay Under 1.5:

    0_1660088086985_d164e1cc-2d7b-495a-901e-d0b891cb8cf2-image.png

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    Richard LatimerR 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • A Offline
    A Offline
    Andy Donnelly
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #4858

    @chris-osborne How do you mean up the strike rate?

    @Nick-Allan thanks, maybe I’ll temporarily remove the games but keep tracking the results in case there is a swing. The SR is so far below all other leagues at the moment that don’t have confidence in trading that league for the timebeing. May well be variance but don’t think it’s anything to do with time of the season

    N 1 Reply Last reply
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Andy Donnelly on last edited by
    #4859

    @andy-donnelly maybe up the strike rate you want before taking a trade

    A 1 Reply Last reply
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  • N Offline
    N Offline
    Nick Allan
    replied to Andy Donnelly on last edited by
    #4860

    @andy-donnelly id want a lot more data personally, what i would do is lower stakes and keep reviewing, could be just variance? Are the league coming to an end? maybe teams have nothing to play for and are not performing?

    1 Reply Last reply
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