MM's attempt at a blog which wont be a blog
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Red Card Cremonese sees me green up in the 01.5 trade - Red Card = Red Flag for me
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Second in Hamburg means three times the green so I've taken that.
Meanwhile taken green after goal (after second drip) Cremonese.
Got an O1.5 trade there with decent odds so will let run
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Looking like I will add another drip on 02.5 Hamburg - IPS strong, with 3 SOT for away team (BTC stats say avg SOT per goal away is less than 3 so goal due, plus 7 corners and 2 SOT for Hamburg).
Meanwhile Kaiser Chiefs stats favour LTD only concern lack of goals recently
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Hamburg goal before second drip. Greened up on LTD trade, didn't get in on 01.5, IPS good (both teams 2 SOT) and early goal means I like another goal so will go with second drip and then review on 35 mins.
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Next up will be Cremonese all form/league points to Cremonese win, but lack of goals in line up a concern. (exception Buonauito but hasn't scored in 4) Whereas Allessandria have scorers playing - so what would be slam dunk Cremonese becomes closer and urges more caution staking wise.
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So as I start trading Hamburg, staking will be on the cautious side just because both teams out of form despite stats being good. Team news ok in so much that Top Scorers play for both teams but not in goals recently.
Will monitor IPS on Over 2.5, odds prohibitive at the moment on 01.5 (need minimum 1.3).
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Here's todays selections:
Note that trades will depend on team news and last refresh of analysis, increasingly cautious about red flags for close games (where odds and ELO's are close).
Rules:
O2.5 First drip kick off, second automatic 15 mins, 3rd and 4th (35 and 45 mins) depend on IPS and out at 60 regardless.
01.5 need 1.3 if backing, may lay depending on level of confidence. IPS and goal time will dictate whether I green up after goal or leave it to run.
LTD very similar rules to Ryans LTD - I've just tweaked with ELO's added.
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So a night where I had to opt out/take a little red/profit on good opportunities all in lots of hither and thither for green of overall plus 1.2 points.
Hatayspor - Odds were too close and ELO //Goal Supremacy close all suggesting close game despite decent stats - no trade
Baskashir - Traded LTD and greened up on goal.
Jong Ajax - Traded from start . Stats Good Home Fav - Goal after second drip for nice green.
Jong AZ - opted out
Jong Utecht - opted out odds too close
AC Milan - took red on LTD at 70 mins
Crystal Palace - opted out - don't regret missing out
Porto - Really healthy green on O2.5 and LTD first goal after third drip and quick second made the LTD return better than it would have been.
The weekend saw green of just over five points.
So plus 6.45 points month to date.
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Ok so a mental but productive week or two - launching back into trading at the weekend... a positive weekend and ridiculously good Sunday.
The deep dive of the international break has produced some exciting results and now keen to do what I promised here and when possible post trades and results.
Will keep it brief this week (you'll be delighted to hear) - will focus on showing selections and reporting on results/bank movement.
So todays list:
You will see my comments and some key stats which will dictate trading , bizarrely nothing on my 01.5 filter which is unusual but happy enough that there are a couple of decent games to trade on Overs and LTD.
LTD has come from analysis of ELO's and essentially develops Ryans LTD but adds ELO in the filter as an additional selection criteria.
The Over 2.5s I have aggressively drilled down to narrow selections and very much focussed on best stats, whilst being really cautious on staking of outlying games.
Porto also comes up on my LTD filter but odds likely to be prohibitive
As ever staking on Overs will be drip feeding, 1st two drips automatic on Start and 15 mins. Then on 35 mins and 45 mins depending on IPS - I compare in play SOT/Corners per Goal/Goal Attempts per Goal etc against IPS to inform this.
Out on 60 mins regardless
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@mark-maguire Enjoy, another excellent write up.
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Time is my enemy - but I want to make it my friend.
One of the biggest challenges I face is committing sufficient time to move things forward.
I stated in my first post that the aim albeit ambitious is to give myself the choice of doing this full time by the end of the year.
To expand on that by then I will have spent two years developing things and while I certainly won't and wouldn't be claiming to be a pro trader, it will (surely) be enough time to measure objectively whether what I've developed since the start can, if I so choose deliver a living or not.
The nature of what I do work wise is that it consumes me - I have to drive things from the middle, and the front, at the same time. So with the Hospitality Business I've come to a stunning property in the South of France which was a shambles when I arrived.. I've replaced pretty much the whole team and now in each department I literally have to get involved and show them .. tonight I had the Chefs Whites on and was teaching them Poulet aux Muscat :man_cook: (its all about the marinating)
On the footy front I'm trying to change a culture, take an organisation into the modern age, digitally and data wise and its bloody exhausting.
Why am I talking about all this? Well because if I review all of my trades then the most disastrous decisions I have made over all the time I've been doing it have been when either:
a) I started a trade knowing I didn't really have time to sit through it
b) When something interrupted me and I thought I could keep "half an eye" on a committed trade.
c) When I've been tired and/or emotionalThere are so many examples of that and its really been brought into focus this week where a combination of the international break, as well as reading through stuff on BTC and videos from Ryan, some of the stuff Martin's doing and just a general deep dive review of my stats have refreshed my mind so much that I feel like several light bulbs have switched on at once.
The nature of my prep for trading so far is that is labour intensive, add to that I've had four variations of an Over 2.5 filter which are similar but not the same, there are two which produce most games to trade and across all four I've kept them going simply because all four have always been profitable. I'd added an Over 1.5 filter, but the work load across those in the context of my other commitments have been a challenge.
Last weekend I had to work my "preverbials" off because like a lot on here there were games (RB Leipzig anyone?) that just weren't playing ball. Of course thats always going to happen but it finally made me examine the real value of trading so many filters and when I went deeply into the two main trade producing filters I found that one was vastly superior (over 1000 trades) than the other and by dropping the other completely and focussing staking on the most profitable I'd be even more profitable.
This might sound obvious but its a bit like rejecting one of the kids, all four have been with me since the start and perhaps naively I've been toddling along thinking a strike rate of 88% versus one of 90% is still decent .. of course the reality is the 2% is largely speaking the difference between the two filters.
My other main moment has been nailing down a filter for LTD which I've been keen to do for a while. And relating it to ELO, and odds. This came from watching a Ryan video when he was plotting a strategy and I hadn't really thought about how to include ELO in a filter before (hadn't even realised you could) .. its week one of that but on paper trading the early signs are shall we say "exciting"
I've also applied the ELO ratings to an O1.5 filter and will paper trade the results.
I've promised a couple of times to post results and will start next week I promise, what I want to hold myself to account with is bank growth so I'll post the plus or minus at least once a week.
So after rambling on about time I've taken ages doing this but refreshed and focussed I will be reporting back on:
- Bank Growth
- More focussed 02.5 strategy
- 01.5 Filter
- LTD filter testing
Right, got to go, Two Poulet aux Muscat on order
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Ok so posted some selections on the main thread.
Trying to get ahead of myself on this after a week of travelling and having to focus on the consultancy stuff.
Intention from today is to try and post bank progress in terms of points growth/loss daily if I can. In all honesty won't have time to analyse individual trades but will try and highlight key points and most importantly want went right or wrong.
Meanwhile I am storing up the information that France are only succeeding because Shaun Edwards is their coach so actually it will be an English victory ..
On the football front I work with a mixture of Marseille and Lyon fans so I variously pretend to like Nice and PSG although the latter makes me feel dirty - need to choose a French team I guess.
Just greened up on Villa match with goal to Arsenal staked cautiously because away favourite and close odds but 96%FHG stat and general positivity in stats and recent games made the decision to trade.
In the Schalke game and IPS in favour of further drips,.... goal just after posting so greened up on that one ..
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Right bank in France. Bracing myself for the French suddenly realising they like Rugby again now that they're winning.
Todays selections from the main filters are as follows:
Over 2.5s:
Of the above the strongest stats wise and odds in terms of Home Favourite/Strength of favourite are:
Telstar vs Dordtrecht
Lodz vs Opole
Perhaps St Pauli vs HeidenheimThe others will be based on team news etc.
Over 1.5s
of these Lodz is strongest - and Pogon vs Wisla
Will look at team news and try to report back but have some French stuff to do so may be late on.
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Ahahaha always the bridesmaid, I like how you are putting a sugar coating on it lol least you got to see Wembo.
That is also a nice looking sheet
@mark-maguire said in MM's attempt at a blog which wont be a blog:
So I got to Wembley and was running 20 mins late so the fella I was meeting rang me and said .. "That's alright we can meet in Starbucks" .. always the bloody bridesmaid I am
Its like being knocked out in the semi final .. but as the old saying goes "Is it better to be sat in Starbucks with Wembley as a view or in Wembley with Starbucks as a vie" ahem actually sod that .. fuming ..Right so phase 2 of my prep is as follows:
I've got 4 different O2.5 filters, which I have pursued because the results are good enough on all four to keep them going albeit that there is a hierarchy and on busy days I will prioritise the most productive. There are a couple which produce few games to trade but generally good odds but the reliance tends to be on IPS after cautious staking to start.
Today only 2 games come up;
Ascoli/Pisa in one of the rarer filters. And in my 01.5 Mainz /Dortmund
I subject both to my Poisson model - below is the actual results of that for Mainz/Dortmund
This is my analysis for Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 - whereby the only figures I input in the grey areas to the left are Avg Goals at Home for the home team (for and against) average goals for and against away for the away team .. and league average - the model then gives me the percentages which I transfer to the sheet I showed earlier
I then do exactly the same for goals conceded/scored at half time to get my FHG .. in yellow:
If you havent fallen asleep yet the next bit is to take the odds, and the poisson odds and put them into a model with BTC ELO, Goal Supremacy and another stat Relative Performance but I'll go into that later..
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So final stage is the model based on ELO etc.. ultimately I want to expand this further and come up with metrics on Fatigue, Weather and previous game mental impact etc - I know I know overkill but I'm fascinated by it and for example see a big impact of Thursday Europa league games leading to odd results on a Sunday anecdotally but want to be able to quantify that..
the average odds make this a risky game other than the FHG stat so any staking will be very cautious and very focussed on IPS
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As it stands for tonight Ascoli stats are poor for 02.5 and 01.5 but maybe interesting for FHG .. the Odds are a bit close so this is where the final bit of analysis may sway me one way or the other.
There are the Ascoli stats.
I want to repeat that this it what works for me and my mentality - in. many ways I envy the pro's who have more instinct and less process but I feel I need these disciplines to help me make the decisions - in due course I'm sure I will find easier ways but for the moment want to be transparent in sharing what I do..
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So I got to Wembley and was running 20 mins late so the fella I was meeting rang me and said .. "That's alright we can meet in Starbucks" .. always the bloody bridesmaid I am
Its like being knocked out in the semi final .. but as the old saying goes "Is it better to be sat in Starbucks with Wembley as a view or in Wembley with Starbucks as a vie" ahem actually sod that .. fuming ..Right so phase 2 of my prep is as follows:
I've got 4 different O2.5 filters, which I have pursued because the results are good enough on all four to keep them going albeit that there is a hierarchy and on busy days I will prioritise the most productive. There are a couple which produce few games to trade but generally good odds but the reliance tends to be on IPS after cautious staking to start.
Today only 2 games come up;
Ascoli/Pisa in one of the rarer filters. And in my 01.5 Mainz /Dortmund
I subject both to my Poisson model - below is the actual results of that for Mainz/Dortmund
This is my analysis for Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 - whereby the only figures I input in the grey areas to the left are Avg Goals at Home for the home team (for and against) average goals for and against away for the away team .. and league average - the model then gives me the percentages which I transfer to the sheet I showed earlier
I then do exactly the same for goals conceded/scored at half time to get my FHG .. in yellow:
If you havent fallen asleep yet the next bit is to take the odds, and the poisson odds and put them into a model with BTC ELO, Goal Supremacy and another stat Relative Performance but I'll go into that later..
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@dan-mackinnon I know where you’re coming from agree completely - don’t get me started on agents - they’re ruining careers or kids at that level by getting greedy too quickly and advising players badly - the number of arguments I’ve had trying to convince players and parents it better to get minutes and game experience at that level the go Into the under 23s at a bigger club and get lost to the game - but the agents try and convince them because the commission is decent
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@mark-maguire I definitely agree. It's amazing when you start going further down the pyramid how much football clubs are run in a sustainable manner and have more community involvement. I didn't mean to belittle Harrogate or Sutton, I just meant it's the same as when people would always say "Leeds are too big to be in League One", well they got there because the owners gambled on their future. People will be saying the same about Derby and if Everton go down they'll also be in a really bad situation.
I hope you're right and we start to see well-run community led football clubs start pushing up the leagues. I don't know if you've seen the Robbie Savage Macclesfield FC documentary? He was trying to sign non-league footballers who were after huge wages and had agents. Apparently even kids now have agents?!
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@dan-mackinnon Its a bit of a pet subject of mine - in actual fact clubs like Harrogate and Sutton have been really well run and found a formula of hard working quality players to get up and have business models which would surprise you in how sensible they are.
The likes of Stockport (who got big investment last year and have appointed the best manager at the level.. he will defo be a manager in the Championship.. I gave him the Hartlepool job and he's different class, went to see him at Stockport and the resources he has are Championship standard in terms of staff and facilities) Notts County - decent news owners, Wrexham massive budget now - are just starting to wake up to whats needed to go up.. and re invent themselves taking some of the business approach of the likes of Harrogate etc .. yes I mean it, but some of the tradition and when they go up they will fly through League 2 because League 2 are still living in the dark ages.
The National League is becoming somewhere that is cleaning clubs up to send them back stronger - all but one teams are full time and once teams respect the level.. thats the difference Dave has made at Stockport - won 17 drawn 1 since he got there .. just by making them cover more distance at high intensity and respect the level (they were already good players but predecessor was from Brighton Under 23's, didnt respect the level and had them tippy tappy .. half way down the table)
