My First Half Goal Strategy
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I have been testing a FHG strategy for a few months now and am today going live with the stakes. I'd like to share the selections with you daily and providing the filter continues performing as it has in testing we will all make a nice profit.
The filter is based on percentage of teams whose matches are not 0-0 at half time, taking into account home and away form respectively. It is also only based on specific European leagues.
It is a split stake, set and forget strategy. I have tested numerous entry points and staking methods and this one has proven vastly superior. I will be using 1 point per match.
The stake must be split into 3 parts:
50% at kick off
30% at 15 mins
20% at 30 mins
For example, if using a £10 stake, thats £5, £3, £2.If a goal is scored in the first half you do not continue entering, that match is a winner and move on. This applies whether the goal is scored in the first minute or last.
Here's to green screens!
Annual P&L (2022): -0.4 points
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Another horrible day for FHGs... I am seriously considering returning to testing and ceasing live trading with them.
No issues with the SHGs again however.
Numbers will be confirmed soon once I've populated my results sheet.
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Sorry bit late posting this morning, was trading the Aus v SL T20.
Lots on the filter this morning, I do love sundays!
FHG only:
1130 - Fiorentina v Atalanta*
1300 - Midtjylland v Aalborg
1315 - Sion v Zurich*
1430 - Bayern v Greuther F*
1500 - Nordsjaelland v Brondby
1530 - Grasshoppers v Young Boys*
1530 - Servette v Luzern*
1630 - Dortmund v B. Monchengladbach*
1630 - Lechia G v Lech Poznan
1700 - Inter v Sassuolo*SHG or O1.5 (no bet if 2 goals in first half)
All * matches above plus:
1400 - Leeds v Man UtdEdit: Bayern are crazy short on a FHG so I'll be entering after at least 15 mins if at all... play that one by ear.
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@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
5 matches on the filters this morning:
FHG Only:
SHG or O1.5:
2/2 FHG
5/5 SHG/O1.5 (There were only 3/5 SHG but the 2 games that there weren't already had 2 or more goals so I didn't enter)
All together +1.2 points
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5 matches on the filters this morning:
FHG Only:
SHG or O1.5:
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@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
One today:
1700, Zaglebie v Wisla Plock, Poland.
That's a FHG only.
Goal on 11 mins. +0.2 points
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One today:
1700, Zaglebie v Wisla Plock, Poland.
That's a FHG only.
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Sundays Results, tough day for everyone trading football I think.
FHG 4/7
SHG 2/3
O1.5 3/7Profit: -1.6 points
Nothing on the plate Mon/Tues.
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Todays selections:
All are FHG selections.
AC Milan, Young Boys, Empoli and Luzern are also SHG/O1.5 selections.
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6/7 on FHG
3/3 on SHG
7/7 on O1.5 goalsLots of goals early in halfs but a profit today of 1.6 points.
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7 today to get involved with on the FHG filter:
3 of these appear on the O1.5/SHG filter. That's Freiburg, Lausanne and St. Gallen.
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@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
3 on the filters today:
FHG:
SHG/O1.5:
Shame no goal in the final match as that scratched a good day. Still, a very minor profit (less than 0.1 points). Onwards to Saturday!
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3 on the filters today:
FHG:
SHG/O1.5:
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@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
Only Liverpool v Leicester today on the O1.5/SHG list.
Think I wrote in the football thread but ended up doing an LCS for +0.3 points
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@ryan said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
@matt-ayles should be a decent game this!
I'm looking forward to this one too, BTTS is also pretty good value currently at 1.84 I'm splitting my stake on this one in pre-in play.
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@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
Bit late on the post today. 2 on the O1.5/SHG filter tonight:
Tottenham v Southampton
Bristol City v Reading2/2 on both O1.5 and SHG's. I traded these both a SHGs as felt that was the best value market compared to LTD/LCS. Therefore for me at least, +0.4 points
I did the Tottenham Game LTD in the end. The odds were better, than my first choice Bournemouth/Birmingham, luckily for me Spurs went ahead through a Southampton Own Goal in about 15 Minutes I think
The other choice I had which matched my 70/30 80/20 criteria was Bristol City/ Blackpool, which i didn't do in the end, but he result was a win for Bristol City
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@matt-ayles should be a decent game this!
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Only Liverpool v Leicester today on the O1.5/SHG list.
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@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
Bit late on the post today. 2 on the O1.5/SHG filter tonight:
Tottenham v Southampton
Bristol City v Reading2/2 on both O1.5 and SHG's. I traded these both a SHGs as felt that was the best value market compared to LTD/LCS. Therefore for me at least, +0.4 points
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@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
Bit late on the post today. 2 on the O1.5/SHG filter tonight:
Tottenham v Southampton
Bristol City v ReadingThey look good calls Matt. I have both on my Filter as well.
