My First Half Goal Strategy
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Bit late on the post today. 2 on the O1.5/SHG filter tonight:
Tottenham v Southampton
Bristol City v Reading -
@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
One today on the O1.5/SHG filter.
West Ham
v Watford.I ended up laying the draw at half time as it was much better value and as I was watching the game I thought 1 goal would win it.
+0.4 points
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One today on the O1.5/SHG filter.
West Ham
v Watford. -
@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
Todays offering:
Venezia v Napoli, 2pm
Sampdoria v Sassuolo, 2pm
Dortmund v Leverkusen, 230pm
St Gallen v Young Boys, 330pm
Istra v D. Zagreb, 405pm
Wolfsburg v Greuther Furth, 430pm
Juventus v Verona, 745pmAll are FHG except the Croatia game.
All are O1.5 and SHG.5/6 on FHG (none at Napoli)
7/7 on SHG
7/7 on O1.5+2.4 points
yes yes yes!
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@matt-ayles Wow what a day!
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@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
Todays offering:
Venezia v Napoli, 2pm
Sampdoria v Sassuolo, 2pm
Dortmund v Leverkusen, 230pm
St Gallen v Young Boys, 330pm
Istra v D. Zagreb, 405pm
Wolfsburg v Greuther Furth, 430pm
Juventus v Verona, 745pmAll are FHG except the Croatia game.
All are O1.5 and SHG.5/6 on FHG (none at Napoli)
7/7 on SHG
7/7 on O1.5+2.4 points
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All in all yesterday, +1.5 points
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Todays offering:
Venezia v Napoli, 2pm
Sampdoria v Sassuolo, 2pm
Dortmund v Leverkusen, 230pm
St Gallen v Young Boys, 330pm
Istra v D. Zagreb, 405pm
Wolfsburg v Greuther Furth, 430pm
Juventus v Verona, 745pmAll are FHG except the Croatia game.
All are O1.5 and SHG. -
@matt-ayles good one mate
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@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
Right folks, this is my plan for today. As previously discussed I've worked really hard the last 2 weeks on the filters so slightly adapted strategy going forward.
So, all of the above are on the FHG filter except the Croatia match between Gorica and Hajduk which is an O1.5/SHG match.
The 2 Polish matches are only on the FHG filter.
So, the new strategy is, for the FHG I'll be following the split stakes as per the header post. Then, for any that appear on the O1.5/SHG filter (which is all of them bar the Polish matches), if the HT score is 0-0/1-0/0-1 I will be trading a SHG on the O0.5 or O1.5 markets accordingly.
The Croatian match is traded on the over goals market, one above whatever the total match goals are at HT.
Need to run the numbers, will do that tomorrow. Good day though!
Roma was a dud at 0-0 but there were a combined 33 goal attempts so perhaps unlucky.
Only the Swiss game failed to have a SHG, and it was also the only game not to get the O1.5. -
@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
@stuart-wallace i have no doubt they could be automated yes but I have no experience or software etc so that will come in time... so i currently do it manually (on my phone mind so I'm not home all day!).
The filter tested very well, took a lovely dip in form in January but I have confidence in it and have done alot of analysis the last 2 weeks so lets hope February is better!
thanks mate and good luck.
I think everybody took a bit of a pounding in late Jan - hopefully fans returning,AFCON players back, virus dying down and the push for playoffs etc will see some more positive results.
Iwonder if anybody has done analysis across the leagues by month? if not i might take that up as a task to do. -
@stuart-wallace i have no doubt they could be automated yes but I have no experience or software etc so that will come in time... so i currently do it manually (on my phone mind so I'm not home all day!).
The filter tested very well, took a lovely dip in form in January but I have confidence in it and have done alot of analysis the last 2 weeks so lets hope February is better!
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Matt, forgive my ignorance , me being an inherrently lazy bugger, hanging around all the first half doing 3 bets across all the selected games seems like a bit of a task with risk.
Can these be automated? -
Just caught on to this Matt, will be watching in anticipation from now !
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Right folks, this is my plan for today. As previously discussed I've worked really hard the last 2 weeks on the filters so slightly adapted strategy going forward.
So, all of the above are on the FHG filter except the Croatia match between Gorica and Hajduk which is an O1.5/SHG match.
The 2 Polish matches are only on the FHG filter.
So, the new strategy is, for the FHG I'll be following the split stakes as per the header post. Then, for any that appear on the O1.5/SHG filter (which is all of them bar the Polish matches), if the HT score is 0-0/1-0/0-1 I will be trading a SHG on the O0.5 or O1.5 markets accordingly.
The Croatian match is traded on the over goals market, one above whatever the total match goals are at HT.
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@matt-ayles It's exciting times!
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Been quiet on the filters due to the winter breaks but there's a bunch today to get my teeth stuck into. Very much looking forward to it! Will post selections shortly once the laptops powered up.
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@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
One today for all 3 options:
Luzern v Basel, 330, Switzerland.
0-3 full time, all SHG
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@matt-ayles said in My First Half Goal Strategy:
@andrew-camp as this is a new development on the back of the FHG data its a working progress.
In theory, you'd be backing over 1.5 pre match, and then backing a SHG if there were less than 2 FHG... however I am still crunching numbers on this and have posted them purely for transparency and not necessarily to be followed with real stakes yet.
Few more days of work and I'll have all the data and can be more confident.
Great stuff, thank you.
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One today for all 3 options:
Luzern v Basel, 330, Switzerland.
