The road to full time

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Welcome to the thread! I setup this thread/blog to show all the stages I was going through in an attempt to become full time. I will post everything that's helped me along the way, from advice from others to actual experience within the markets.

2019 and the start of 2020 saw me turn full time. From now on I will be posting all trades, wins and losses. There is a spreadsheet showing the results in the signature at bottom of each post. Ill be posting all my trades, this will be followed up at end of each day with an update on here with a run down of the results, bank updates including premium charges and withdrawals etc, everything that happens in my trading offering an insight into my full time trading journey. If during that week I can highlight a trade good or bad to show and talk about I will. I hope the full transparency helps others pick up on the good and bad parts of my trading and allows them to adapt it to their own trading style.

Read much further down and you can see the whole journey to this point including some guides on topics/matches of how I got to here.

Excited to show how the next stage of my own journey pans out. While I may do this full time I am still just at the early stages of the snowball effect of trading. Iv limited myself to a small but consistent pattern of trading for a year now. Currently trading Pre match LTD. These are data only trades, these are aided by midweek inplay trades on champs/europa matches for late goals.

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Iv been very aware of recent convos on this forum and i do like to at some point everyday take a look around and see what people are struggling with or trends that worry me if not addressed. The best use of the forum is to be soaking in the correct info that will enable you the trader to become profitable.

Here is a quote from buffet:
Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks

Stubbornness can kill trading. Believe me iv been there. Thats why in examples of my recent few days of looking to move to a better version of my ltd i am taking action than being stubborn. Look around the forum, when people offer advice, isnt it funny how months after they finally switch to that given advice and suddenly make profit? This isnt me blowing my own trumpet, iv seen others give out advice with similar scenarios coming true. Why do we as humans/mainly blokes on this forum never accept advice and always pursue our views and beliefs to the end, which in the end can be detrimental to our journey. To its core i believe this is why we see so many traders come and go at trading. We see so many people try for years and years making no gains, yet had they just listened they would have been at such an advanced stage. For example if you had started with a £1k bank and followed all my trades every one of the football ones youd be walking around with £20k in the bank using just 1% staking, that even with my failed strats. In the years iv been on this forum iv seen many try new and exciting strats, using less liquid markets. Iv seen people toil away hours into things people have highlighted wont work long term. Iv even been one of them.

My biggest wish is people had more of an open mind. I wish i had. Id be closer to £100k by now if id just listened. Instead i toiled away thinking i need to see this for myself only to be proven wrong. Pride, not wanting to look weak by accepting you are wrong at time etc are all reasons people remain poor or never achieve what they want. People that are good friends, fathers/mothers and husbands an wives all listen. We all have moments of not and in the long run it doesnt help us at all.

Iv been seeing people using certain strats that just are like the sinking boat quote. You are trading with something sub par and youll only reach a certain level with it. Its the same with markets. There is a reason the best traders you see on this forum/online trade the most basic strats, in the biggest liquid markets in the biggest liquid leagues. There is a reason they also tell people to avoid anything else. The rest is there to steal your money and be a money pit.

Now im not saying all advice is good advice, not one person is always right either. There are right and wrong ways on each individual case. But time and time again its the same exact mistakes people keep making. Keep doing markets like FHG, BTTS, Unders trading. Then they add that to poor quality leagues. Yet when you look at the people most people follow its only ever the best markets within the best leagues. Think about that for a second.

Kind of a humbling moment, i saw a youtube video and it really got into my head about all the advice iv been giving out. Does it ring true and am i just waffling on about things unrelated. Ill leave the video link below. Try to think about this with trading in mind. Why do we want to focus on one thing at a time and how does this all compound to in the end make this whole thing work. It a long video and not all is related to trading. However each topic can be linked directly back to trading. The way we do things and spot things is really interesting. Have an open mind, taking on advice and implementing it isnt weakness its progress.

here it is:

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@dave-hayes flashscores mate, other good one is sofascore

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@Darri Which Footy Stats screenshot is that from I like it and would like to use it please.Its also a very decent post

Thanks

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Iv been scrolling looking to find a post for someone today but as self obsessed as this might look here is what i used to be trading like. The long term readers will remember this strategy. Its amazing to think about the past and whether or not i have improved. Im not making as much profit as i did back then, but am i happier in my trading? Do i have a better work/life balance? Am i slave to each trade and game waiting to be matched or get a notification? Im pretty happy to say im in a better place with all those situations. If trading was my only source of income as it was back then, id 100% still be doing that strat, it worked well. Iv often been contemplating what if scenarios such as what if i only did that during the week or on days im off etc, that would allow me to trade like that again. Id get the bank rising far quicker. But a constant nag at me is the amount of breaks iv had to take because of that strat. Id be stuck waiting for trades and never present with family. Football trading is a nagging process to family and friend time as the most volume is at weekends, when they are all off and want to do things. Me missing out on either their time or trading time was a lose lose. Time have changed tho and while its not so rosey profit wise, i dont need to be making as much as back then. Im content with this progress now. Hopefully a trip down memory lane helps people realise why iv changed to the way i am now and if people want this strategy feel free to message or read the below posts

@darri said in The road to full time:

This might help @Mark-Maguire

@darri said in The road to full time:

Trade Breakdown: West brom vs Tottenham

Pre match selection:
West brom last 3 home games have given clues to the rest of season already. 0-0 against burnley, but when up against potential top 6 teams they have conceded 3 goals both against chelsea and leicester.
Spurs on the other hand came into this winning all 3 away games. Beating burnley, man utd and southampton.
Form tells us Spurs are in form and west brom have stuttered there way into the season so far.
When it comes to these matchups i tend to focus heavily on the team i expect to score. So for this ill now turn and have a look at the key players for spurs.

Key players research:
I chose this game because it will resonate with many traders or football fans. But really you should be finding out this knowledge with any size of team be it a prem side or a swedish side. The same principles matter.
Spurs have scored, 18 goals this season before the match. Kane scoring 6 and 8 assists (77% contribution to all team goals) Son has scored 8 and 2 assists (55% of all team goals). Now obviously some of the goals between them will have been assisting the other. But when you then look at the rest of team the nearest goal contributor is Aurier with 1 goal 1 assist (11%). As you can see without these 2 in the team the pre match stats we all looked at wouldnt work out.
People who are using pre match stats to judge if a game should be traded must be factoring in key players and who is contributing most to them, otherwise it becomes inaccurate data.

The plan:
This game wasnt filtered to me, but if it was its the exact same process. Now we write down somewhere our plan for the game. Is it a LCS, FHG, ov 2.5, comeback etc.
For me im looking at this game for a late goal. So for this to work i need the scores to be in favour of spurs needing to get a goal. So 0-0/1-0/1-1/2-1. For me i dont typically go anymore than that as those games are unpredictable and performing above average already.
I need Kane and Son to be playing but given their individual contribution either would be enough.
I then need inplay to be in favour of spurs dominating.
Ill watch the match from half time. If im seeing spurs attacking and looking lively then it supports all the points above so i would then inplay judge if price is value before placing.

Inplay:
Personal preference here, i find im able to judge trades best when im watching games and with late goal trades i only watch the 2nd half, couldnt care less what happened in the first with stats or chances etc. However i know some people get over invested when watching the match and might just be trigger happy with small chances, just using inplay stats would be your better option if that was your case.
What im looking for here is expected goals chances/clear cut chances. Not long range efforts or tight angle shots. Efforts when a defender has had to block, keeper to save, hit woodwork or had a shot within the V of the goal.

Here is the inplay stats at HT:

Not looking like a game to get involved with. But like i said i dont care what happened 1st half chances wise. Spurs not creating anything.

Here is what it looks after the 2nd half:

Massive difference. We can see spurs really upped it in the 2nd half and dominated.

Trade or No trade?
So all things pointed to spurs getting in the game. Key players both on the pitch. Spurs looked more likely to score backing up our pre match research. Chances inplay were good, with a good few efforts id have expected kane and co to have troubled keeper with.
Now THE biggest part, the price. We have outlined above why we now like this as a trade. But for us to win long term we need to add price. Price is king! Now typically with the big teams you have poor value price all the way through. However with some matches you can spot a good price so never rule it out.
I managed to get 1.75 to back ov0.5 on 70 mins, typically this will be the average price for my trades so given i have a strong fav to score this presents value to me. Basically when i look at a price calculate that into a % chance. Did i think there would be a 60%(profit after commission at this ratio) that a goal was coming, given all the points above i did. If say kane or son had come off in that time i would not have entered. Instead spurs lumped on two more attacking players to aid the threat. Factor the price in with my strike rate of my overall trades this was a good price.
So the LCS/Back next goal is matched. For most this is when you sit back and wait for a goal. For me with it being 0-0 i kept looking as i trade the LTD. For this its just looking to see if spurs consistently attack and look even more likely to score than they did 5-10 mins before when i placed the first trade.

Result:
Kane (key player research) scorred in the 87th min to win on both the LCS and LTD.
When you look at all of this and think its overwhelming. Its not. It takes me 5 mins to do this research. Even less if its a game from a filter. Do this for every game and youll start to score off those games that dont fit this criteria. Zoning in on the quality picks. Now your still not going to win every game but as traders we are looking to limit risk. By doing these steps we go from a punt to a well thought out trade/value bet.

I hope this shows how i go from a trade on paper to an actual trade. There are plenty videos of people talking about each section which makes people think its harder and longer to do than normal but its really just 5-10 mins of sitting down before a game. Any questions just ask

@darri said in The road to full time:

Another less detailed but same message of how i look for trades

@darri said in The road to full time:

Quick post to show why the rosenborg game was a cracking trade and is exactly the type of filter selection id go for.

Pre match stats:
Rosenborg needed a win to keep going for europe.
Rosenborg have scored a 2nd half goal in 5/5 home games (good form)
Between the teams mjondalen have only had 1 game under 0.5 and rosenborg only 3, massive % there

Key players:
holse
zachariassen (went on to score winner)

Inplay:

Massive pressure from rosenborg to go onto win the game. One team battling at top places and one struggling near the bottom.
All key players on the pitch come 75 mins.
Scoreline is 0-0 so rosenborg have motivation to get the winner.

Price:
at 74 mins the price was 1.85 and quickly jumped to 2.00. In a norwegian game with a heavy fav you cant get much better odds.

Adding all this up we trade this game because it fits our plans. The individual game isnt important now that we have entered. The whole reason we trade every game on its merits is to help us decide if we are to enter. Once we trade it, we are then adding it to our log term list of results. If we keep trading games like this we will profit long term.

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@matt-wood as soon as i get the "ick" with how im trading a strategy i cannot get it out my head and need to change or do something else. Even if that strategy has been profitable for a while. So for me the only way for me to continue to trade it is by building data on the way id prefer to trade it. Now i know for a lot of people this will seem very rich of me to say ill not be trading something thats profitable, when they dont have yet, but iv been trading a while and i have 2 good strats already still active so there really is no need for me to be forcing the ltds when im not fully happy with them. I wasnt that bothered by it during the winter break, but as soon as i was back trading them i realised i just cant get the "ick" out my head and need to fix it.

Matt Wood

@darri Appreciate the post Darri. Much better than someone just saying I'm putting this on hold for now. You have explained why and is a great example to us to not just accept something as is. If there is a better way...we should strive to find it.

Looking forward to see it come back with that mountain of data behind it

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This post might annoy people, but this is trading and we must always do whats best for our trading banks. Iv spotted a new take on my LTD that id very much like to track. I think the current version while healthy has a few flaws i dislike. I think its very reliant on a few key criteria such as leagues and entry odds. I want to go away and build data on the big picture. Im talking tracking the rest of this season and the summer leagues too. I want to be back posting this strategy when its at a more advanced stage. It does mean ill be staring at the small loss on my sheets for a good while, something that will be nagging my perfectionist mentality and liking everything to be neat. That is my own choice. I had thought about trading the current version but im someone who once they see a flaw cant get it out of their head and would like to fix it.

This doesnt affect the ov 1.5 or the shg ill still be trading and ill post the trades as usual, just without LTDs. I dont want to share something im not trading just for everyone else to trade it. Im not a tipster, im just sharing my trades. This is all about helping my mindset. The issue when you start putting money to things is you get a heightened opinion. I really need data alone to be the deciding factor. Right now my opinion is creeping in and need to make sure i keep it data related. So rest of this season and summer leagues to track it, then come back with a better version of my strategy.

The aim of £15k is still the plan. Im hoping between both the ov 1.5 and shg we can hit the 15% compound mark most months. Obviously international breaks will affect some months but im still confident. This isnt a setback and im still thinking long term. Im never worried about my trading, i know why im doing things, being secure in what you do and knowing it inside out is a key part to all of this.

For transparency I thought id write this post, just so people can make plans to trade certain strats, i know based on a few blogs people were planning on trading the LTDs as part of their main portfolio. Things change however and while now almost everyone is doing a ov1.5 and shg its probably because its a solid market and other strats are harder to find long term data for. Takes time for them. However as ever ill still be posting my other strats and they are equally profitable otherwise they wouldnt be in my portfolio.

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@james-woodroffe its all about problem solving. Asking questions to get a better picture of how to tackle this. Over time those questions lead to your own understanding of trading and how to beat it. There are some people who have just been blindly following keith and me, yes for profit, but they havent a scoopy why it works. So if me or keith ever leave or go on holiday, they are stuck. You on the other hand are a great example, you wanted to know why we traded in those games and why that trade was actually "value". Many dont even try and just want tipsters, thats fine, but the whole point of this forum in my opinion is to learn from traders and then tweak it to your own taste. But the fundamentals that me and keith have spoken about a lot are what most need to think about. Im not saying iv not learnt this from others, but im a stubborn guy, i typically dont understand until iv seen it with my own eyes. So data and mistakes are what allows me to help others avoid them.

I always like hearing these posts saying about the help provided is value, its what im always most happy about, anyone can get you some profits, but its the little pickups people get over time that satisfies me more.

James Woodroffe

@keith-anderson the amount I’ve learnt from you and Darri is almost worth a text book. It’s a pity I skimmed over it early doors and only really read it towards the back end of last year. Whilst I trust the two of you implicitly with your knowledge there have been matches where in order to become a better trader and more disciplined I’ve had to say to myself “I dunno Jack about that league and I’m not just going to blindly follow.” I need to justify what I’m doing. I mentioned on my own blog that work had meant I didn’t get on everything you guys posted but there was definitely that element to it also. I’ve since stuck to major leagues in Europe and the A League in Australia and am seeing the benefits of that big time. Thanks gentlemen

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No games for tomorrow, likely no trades until thursday so a few days to not think about trading

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@darri said in The road to full time:

Ok 2022 what do you have for me?!

LTD: lay with liability of 3pts/% of bank, and then place a back @8.0 to remove half liability here are the games:

Brentford vs Villa
Alaves vs RS

1/2 for today, was always going to be after a long break and with recent data being above average, december on paper was a very healthy month. At least it wasnt a big loss, looks to have been a bad weekend for some strats, happy mine has a fairly low strike rate needed

Akiva Anderson

@darri said in The road to full time:

There are no trades for my 0v1.5 but there is a potential SHG which if it qualifies ill post at HT on the football thread. I know that if i didnt just do the main leagues id be trading more today, iv seen people posting about non league football or leagues iv not even heard of, that to me is pointless. Liquidity and a lack of consistency is my issue. Iv been there and done it with those leagues, they add very little value to me long term as im not planning on being a small enough bank to utilise them long term. Thinking big picture and building data that is relevant to my long term goals, not short term hopes. Hopefully between this post and the one from yesterday you can catch my theme of less is more, please dont be trading high volume when there are better options with less trades needed.

I agree. Don't understand why people trade leagues they've barely heard of. Up to the individual I suppose. My main profit comes from the big leagues - no coincidence that these leagues are highly debated, scrutinised and usually on TV too. It's where all the big data is

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There are no trades for my 0v1.5 but there is a potential SHG which if it qualifies ill post at HT on the football thread. I know that if i didnt just do the main leagues id be trading more today, iv seen people posting about non league football or leagues iv not even heard of, that to me is pointless. Liquidity and a lack of consistency is my issue. Iv been there and done it with those leagues, they add very little value to me long term as im not planning on being a small enough bank to utilise them long term. Thinking big picture and building data that is relevant to my long term goals, not short term hopes. Hopefully between this post and the one from yesterday you can catch my theme of less is more, please dont be trading high volume when there are better options with less trades needed.

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@matt-wood we shall see bud, the profits pre any tweaks were good, i feel like the tweaks have made them better. Now of course there will be losses thats guaranteed but from tracking seems like this tackles a large % of losses. With Laying anything over 2.0 your losses per trade are more than potential profits. Finding an odds range that a lot of games hit, that can remove more liability and only a small % of potential profit seems wise. You can go granular here perhaps not removing red say if its a decent fav in the lead, but im not interested in inplay trading this im interested in my macro data and just churning along making gains here and there with big picture in mind not the individual games.

Matt Wood

@darri Thanks for the explanation as always I'm super curious to see how this does, probably well I imagine, as I've been paying particular attention to all your posts about this LTD system from the start. for a nice big green 2022

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@matt-wood The lay is a set liability of 3pts, you can use any liability its just one im comfortable using, in the long term i do see this being just a 2pt liability. Then the back is placed pre match also yes, can use a bot also if desired, also can do this inplay if this was for an optimal exit. The back is just to remove half the red. This is pretty much my defence against the last minute goals which almost all my reds seem to have in common. I tested the remove red in december while you still hit the losers the less profit works more in favor than the % of red avoided.

Matt Wood

@darri said in The road to full time:

Ok 2022 what do you have for me?!

LTD: lay with liability of 3pts/% of bank, and then place a back @8.0 to remove half liability here are the games:

Brentford vs Villa
Alaves vs RS

Really curious to see this perform in 2022 after your break in Dec

The back @8.0, queued or placed pre KO along with the LTD for 3pts?

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Ok 2022 what do you have for me?!

LTD: lay with liability of 3pts/% of bank, and then place a back @8.0 to remove half liability here are the games:

Brentford vs Villa
Alaves vs RS

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Nothing tickled my fancy today trading wise. With winter breaks and a spread about schedule for jan, it could be a quiet month. Nothing gained nothing lost. As ever for those that have followed will know im not someone who does hundreds of trades a month, i trade less than most, hopefully tho we get enough quality trades to keep the bank ticking nicely. It can be frustrating to not be trading when there are games live, but thats the beauty of set and forget, you dont always need to be trading for sake of it. Trade when the opportunities are provided and dont force it. Stick to the plans/rules if you have them. Have a few shortlisted tomorrow but will check odds in morning to see if we have a qualifier or not