The BTC Horse Racing Thread
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Today's. 3.5-9 on both. Ground wont be a problem.
Filtered Trobs
Handicap Trobs
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State of play for the Handicaps at the end of June 2020.
Jumps. 3.5-9 odds range 80% Dob Rate
Flat 3.5-9 odds range 70% Dob Rate
So Trobbing we are looking at 80 points from 254 races. Dobs aren't worth bothering with and if you didn't mind the variance you could back the win on the Flat only as well giving you another 80 points(Rounded up) from 143 trades so 160 points from 397 trades.
I'll keep backtesting to the end of December when I stopped (stupidly) recording all race data.
This should keep us in money until the lovely new software is ready for beta testing next month.
My filtered trobs I am also going to stick with as they are not spectacular but plod along in the background. I might have over filtered them but they are pretty reliable with not a huge amount of variance which can be reduced even more by making them handicap races only.
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I'm nearly at the end of June last year for the backtest. I'll do a results to date when I get there.
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This post is deleted!
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Lets see if these have a good day. 3.5-9 on both. Heavy to be avoided on the filtered trobs but not the handicaps
Filtered Trobs
Handicaps
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Crap all round today. Always the way when you find something new.
We go again tomorrow
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As an update. I have split these out as the flat uses a 70% dob rate and the jumps 80%There was no flat after 3rd November so these will remain static until June 2020.
Jumps
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Todays Filtered Trobs. I will not personally be doing the fillies so queue two wins. 3.5-9 odds range
Today's Handicaps. I will split these out into Hurdles and Flats on two sheets but I have just done this on the Backtest and my brain is fried. 3.5-9 odds range.
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Looks like scratch on the filtered trobs and plus 3 on the handicaps yesterday. Couple of wins as well which bumped the profit a bit
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@svajunas-bernotas said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
John do you have a minimum race criteria for 70%/80% Dobs?
On the normal trobs it’s 5 races with an 11% win rate
Doesn’t seem to make any difference on the Handicap Trobs I am backtesting though which surprised me.
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John do you have a minimum race criteria for 70%/80% Dobs?
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On the handicaps back test it is becoming clear that a dob rate filter of 70% is not as good as 80% on the jumps. On the flat it is mustard. So I may have to separate as two different strategies. I’ve opened a proper can of worms here but then going forward we will have two solid strategies to work with. There will be a lot less selections on the jumps but that is the case anyway. The flat just looks like it’s going to be a cash register.
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Both of todays. 3.5-9 odds range as usual for both
Filtered Trobs
Handicap Trobs
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1 point lost on the normal 2 on the handicaps. Annoying as the last race just missed. Small margins and all that
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Thank you John, really appreciated
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Someone asked for a copy of my spreadsheet. Please ignore the rules page i need to update it. This doesn't include my backtest spreadsheet which I will upload when i am finished. Once the new software comes out and this thread starts getting more active I will start a new one with selections only.
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I am still progressing with the back test. It's taking at least a day to do each month as I have to fit other stuff in too. That said, here are todays selections.
Filtered Trobs. One selection. You are looking for 3.5-9 odds range as usual
Pure Handicaps. As above. 3.5-9 odds range. It picked up a freak winner at 120 BSP yesterday, but that was an anomaly based on the backtest so far.
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@john-folan said in The BTC Horse Racing Thread:
Ok Normal Business. These are my filtered trobs. The ONLY race I am getting involved with is the 14:20 at mussleburgh. I am leaving the other two alone. They probably won't hit the odds filters anyway. 3.5-9 on the one I am doing as a TROB.
The Handicap list today is this. If you are getting involved then stick to the 3.5-9 odds range. I personally am doing Win and Trob inside this range for small stakes. Mostly because I want to watch happens inrunning.
Normal was -1 handicap plus 2. Picked up a winner as well. Picked up a big winner outside the odds range 3.5-9 doesn’t look profitable on those long term so a bit of a freak.
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Ok Normal Business. These are my filtered trobs. The ONLY race I am getting involved with is the 14:20 at mussleburgh. I am leaving the other two alone. They probably won't hit the odds filters anyway. 3.5-9 on the one I am doing as a TROB.
The Handicap list today is this. If you are getting involved then stick to the 3.5-9 odds range. I personally am doing Win and Trob inside this range for small stakes. Mostly because I want to watch happens inrunning.
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Ok so here are the base results upto the end of September 2019.
Impressive in itself as the only filters are 70% Dob Rate, Pure Handicap Races Only and no AW shite.What is massively more impressive is you apply my usual odds filters of 3.5-9 you get
TROB 54.84 points
DOB 19.74 points
WIN 73.17 points
All from 105 racesSo looks like the turnover on these so far is a lot more impressive and the ROI is holding up against my super duper filtered.
I will try and get through Octobers today and see where we are.
