MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY
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Evening all , thought i would do an update on my trading with my April results now updated onto my spreadsheet.
I have 5 systems i am now running , still using the £2max liabilty stakes which i am happy with as i haven't been tempted into higher stakes which is good. I am going to carry on collating data using the same staking plan and as Stuart has mentioned it really doesn't take as long as you think to get decent amounts of data, another few months and i will then try to break down each strategy and eliminate leagues that perform poorly and find the trading odds ranges that are most profitable. For the time being the results are as followsSYSTEM 1- STUARTS SET AND FORGET LTD AT KO
This system would no doubt be in profit like everyone else if i managed to get my odds matched before a goal goes in , i am putting in a lay trade normally half hour or so before kick off for odds one tick lower than the current lay price. If a game has a lively start the odds can sometimes creep up ,and not get down to the odds that i had put in until 20mins into the match which inevitably has a goal in the 1st 20mins. Will from now on put a lay bet in still one tick below the current price but a few hours or the evening before as on the occasions i have done this they tend to get matched
APRIL TRADES - 88
WON - 68
LOST - 20
STRIKE RATE - 77.27%
LOST ( - £3.23)TOTAL TRADES ON THIS SYSTEM TO DATE 169 , WON 132 LOST 37 , S/R 78% ( LOSS OF £4.40)
SYSTEM 2 - DUTCH FULL TIME CORRECT SCORE MARKET, i have a filter set up with a 80% chance in the last 10 matches the following score lines ( 0-0,1-0,0-1,1-1,2-0,2-1,1-2,2-2) also i check the last 5 h2h results and make sure the data is similar.
TRADES - 174
WON - 140
LOST - 34
STRIKE RATE - 80.46%
MONTHLY PROFIT - £14.56TOTAL TO DATE - TRADES 187, WON 149,LOST 38 , STRIKE RATE 79.68% PROFIT £11.13
SYSTEM 3 - DUTCH 1ST HALF CORRECT SCORE MARKET . I was trading one version until the last week or so which was a filter set up for 85% chance of 0-0,0-1,1-0) but recently added 3 other variations which i believe will bring in more profit, just need the strike rate to match the filter expectations. These versions are 0-0 or 1-0, the next being 0-0 and 0-1, and the final version is where goals are expected 20% or less chance of a 0-0 half time score line so added lcs 0-0 on 20mins and hope to have the odds lower than 2.20 or below preferably below 2.0.
TRADES - 180
WON 133
LOST 47
STRIKE RATE 73.89%
LOSS OF £4.80TOTAL TO DATE 207 TRADES, WON 155, LOST 52, S/R 75% ( LOSS OF £2.18)
SYSTEM 4- MY OWN SET AND FORGET LTD AT KICK OFF - This i thought was going to be my post performing strategies but still in profit each month which is great with the difficult end of season fixtures to contend with. Having to go through each match from the filter and decide if teams have anything to play for and i think i have probably could have made more money on this strategy where sometimes both teams are desperate for the points and can end up in a draw and also i tend to lay injury time if a team is only winning by 1 at odds around 1.05 incase of a late goal .
TRADES 202
WON 152
LOST 25
STRIKE RATE 75.25%
PROFIT £7.81TOTAL TO DATE TRADES 337, WON 259, LOST 78, STRIKE RATE 77% PROFIT £28.58
SYSTEM 5- IS LTD AT HT IF 0-0 OR 1-1 AND ODDS BELOW 3.0. This is a system i have taken on after Eamon mentioned to me and seems to be doing well so far. I have a filter set up expecting a second half goal as long as the matches wern't already of my trading list for Stuarts set and forget and my ltd at kick off and the inplay stats look good i get in
TRADES 45
WON 32
LOST 13
STRIKE RATE 71%
PROFIT £8.46 -
Well done mate, glad to see the discipline is kicking in. Small stakes at the start is the key until you get confident in your strategy and also your staking.
Keep it up mate
@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:March Update
More trading this month has been set aside to set and forget strategies . I have shelved the split stake 1.5 goal system i was attempting as was losing patience and am finding set and forget systems appear to me much better for my trading mentality, again i am trading with real money, i am only doing £2-00 minimum liability stakes which i am happy with as i don't up chasing loses.
System 1 - Stuart's set and forget ltd has had a lot better month in March
Trades 61
Winners 52
losses 9
strike rate 85.24%
Profit £6.92System 2- Dutch full time correct score , this is a new set and forget strategy which i started a week or so early days, based on a filter i have set.
Trades 13
Won 9
Losses 4
strike rate 69%
Loss £-3.43System 3- Dutch 1st half correct score, based on a filter set and dutch 0-0,1-0,0-1 1st half correct score
Trades 27
Won 22
Lost 5
Strike Rate 81%
Profit £2.62System 4 - My own set and forget ltd. This month has had a couple of bad set of trading days which has put a dent into the strike rate which was running 89% but still increased my profit
Trades 107
Won 82
Lost 25
Strike Rate 76.66%
Profit £7.03So with a total of 135 trades and a strike rate of 79% on this strategy, and once i add this weekend results to this strategy i should have over 150 matches of data which i will go through and see if i can pick apart and find any leagues that are performing poorly and see if i can find the magic odds range to then filter my selections further
I will be picking my matches more selective soon as a lot of the European leagues are coming to the end and there may be a lot of dead rubber matches that could effect this strategy -
March Update
More trading this month has been set aside to set and forget strategies . I have shelved the split stake 1.5 goal system i was attempting as was losing patience and am finding set and forget systems appear to me much better for my trading mentality, again i am trading with real money, i am only doing £2-00 minimum liability stakes which i am happy with as i don't up chasing loses.
System 1 - Stuart's set and forget ltd has had a lot better month in March
Trades 61
Winners 52
losses 9
strike rate 85.24%
Profit £6.92System 2- Dutch full time correct score , this is a new set and forget strategy which i started a week or so early days, based on a filter i have set.
Trades 13
Won 9
Losses 4
strike rate 69%
Loss £-3.43System 3- Dutch 1st half correct score, based on a filter set and dutch 0-0,1-0,0-1 1st half correct score
Trades 27
Won 22
Lost 5
Strike Rate 81%
Profit £2.62System 4 - My own set and forget ltd. This month has had a couple of bad set of trading days which has put a dent into the strike rate which was running 89% but still increased my profit
Trades 107
Won 82
Lost 25
Strike Rate 76.66%
Profit £7.03So with a total of 135 trades and a strike rate of 79% on this strategy, and once i add this weekend results to this strategy i should have over 150 matches of data which i will go through and see if i can pick apart and find any leagues that are performing poorly and see if i can find the magic odds range to then filter my selections further
I will be picking my matches more selective soon as a lot of the European leagues are coming to the end and there may be a lot of dead rubber matches that could effect this strategy -
@james-everard Sounds like this could be solid, I'd echo the comments from other collect some more data. Maybe not double the amount you've got but another 40 or so then I think you'd have a decent base to go on - just being away that the time of year for the football might alter it slightly - coming to end of the season etc....
Also remember the sods law - when you've tested something the first trade nearly always losses with real money!
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@darri Cheers Darri, just the type of message that reinforces me to continue with what i was doing and don't deviate. Think this has potential to be a good strategy so will carry on recording and hope this continues with the good strike rate and then pick apart after 160 games the data and see how i can improve .
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@darri For me also doing it this way takes the stress out of it.
You know what each stage consists of and when they should happen. There is no 'should I? should't I?' question about trading. If you are mid cycle then no I should not. End of cycle I move to the next stage, no choices needed there really. Also like you say, it really doesn't take that long once you get going.
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@matt-wood spot on mate. It can be a grind especially thinking how long that process could be but once you do it you realise it takes less time than first thought. The reason i do mine in those kind of phases is because at each stage im doing small tweaks to see improvement and how that affects the strategy in the next phase etc. Its basically building a strategy slowly and naturally improving it. I in the past used to spot something in the data and then try come up with a complete strategy and start trading only to find it wasnt actually that good in the next batch of games. This way im not having my opinion influence my views on the data im just waiting till each cycle/phase of games come and if im improving on each batch then its working. Slow and steady so they say. All about building a solid foundation, there are plenty of profitable strategies out there but its you the individual that needs to execute it well and in my opinion that is done by building confidence through data and proof it works. Thats why most of the more experienced traders talk about how the stepping stone from finding a good strategy is the psychology of trading that determines how much longevity you can have, something even im still trying to work on.
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@matt-wood said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
Afternoon James, good to see things going well
My testing I have adopted a lot of stuff from @Darri and his blog. I run my test for an initial 100-150 games to get a 'feel' then if I think it is good enough I go through the data and make a tweak I think will increase the SR then run for another 100-150 games, this time with a 1pt assumed stake.
I am close to reaching the end of this second phase on one of my tests when I plan on entering the dreaded 'REAL MONEY STAKE' of £2 (and watch it fall apart lol). This I will do for another 100 games, or stop if it goes wrong.
Only after this will I consider raising my stake.
Hope that helps a bit.
Hi Matt hope you are keeping well mate. Thanks for the time to reply to my post appreciate the advice.
You are right the amount of games i currently have wasn't enough data yet, think i may have been getting ahead of myself just needed that confirmation from someone that was the case.I will carry on as i have with my min £2 liability lay stakes and get to 150 games and evaluate the results and filter out any leagues and or teams that are performing poorly , also i will be able to find the odds range that is profitable and make amendments to my filter. Then i will run for a further 150 games and then if still profitable will start increasing my stakes to 2% of my bank. Thanks for the heads up
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Afternoon James, good to see things going well
My testing I have adopted a lot of stuff from @Darri and his blog. I run my test for an initial 100-150 games to get a 'feel' then if I think it is good enough I go through the data and make a tweak I think will increase the SR then run for another 100-150 games, this time with a 1pt assumed stake.
I am close to reaching the end of this second phase on one of my tests when I plan on entering the dreaded 'REAL MONEY STAKE' of £2 (and watch it fall apart lol). This I will do for another 100 games, or stop if it goes wrong.
Only after this will I consider raising my stake.
Hope that helps a bit.
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Morning all , i have been recording my results and for the last 6-7weeks and on one of my filters my own set and forget ltd at kick seems to be doing well.
My question is i have 73 trades for this with 60 wins with a strike rate of 82% with a profit of £17.10 using the minimum £2-00 liability stakes at what stage would you say you have enough data to suggest this could be a good strategy to increase my stakes to a larger stake ie 2 or 3% of my bank . Would you say now or when you have 300-400 matches of data? -
@chris-osborne said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard Sometimes means the formula hasn't copied down properly from the previous row, if you try dragging down the last working formula to the rows below, should hopefully work
Hi Chris , i had a look on utube and it was to do with autosum need to add the value again and it seems to have worked until my fat finger then presses the wrong button again lol. Thanks anyway
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@james-everard Sometimes means the formula hasn't copied down properly from the previous row, if you try dragging down the last working formula to the rows below, should hopefully work
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@martin-futter said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard #REF usually just means the equation symbols used were wrong, so you may have missed a symbol in the formula or sonething like that, in my experience.
Ok i will have to try and figure it out will look on utube hopefully work it out as i don't want to have to start my recordings all over again
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@gary-tunnicliffe Interesting anyway you think you could refine the bot to improve your results ? i was trading grey hounds and would have been profitable if i was disciplined but i had 2 or 3 great days then blow it all in one evening. Discipline is key mate
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@james-everard #REF usually just means the equation symbols used were wrong, so you may have missed a symbol in the formula or sonething like that, in my experience.
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Hi all , can anyone assist please. Sorry i have pretty basic skills with spreadsheets ( infact no skills lol) . I have a spreadsheet set up recording my results and happened recently and didn't know how to resolve so started recording again.
The same thing has happened again i have obviously pressed a button i shouldn't have and now my results are note calculating in the total profit and loss column. The say #REF! . You can see on my spreadsheet signature
Anyone know please what i have to do to resolve the issue thanks -
@james-everard said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@gary-tunnicliffe said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
James the greyhounds are my cup of tea, how are you progressing are you laying or dutching for a win ? i have greater success on the aussie dogs to UK and find TAB to be a great source of info / selections. (and live radio)
Hi Gary my problem with Greyhounds is mentality. If my head is right i know i could make greyhounds trading profitable, i have a strategy i am certain that would be profitable if i could make sure i didn't chase losses after a couple of losing trades.
I used to use Greydata for Aussie data not heard of that one i will have a check up on this site. problem i found little to no liquidity in Aussie races what strategy are you using then mate?i stumbled across a betangel bot that dutches selections based on book % and ive been playing with that for a while now up & down playing with percentages to get the best SR, dutching the front 3 selections to a fixed amount.
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@james-everard That't one of the hidden benefits of a trading plan, on the surface it looks restrictive and stressful but actually it provides less stress & usually better results.
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@gary-tunnicliffe said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
James the greyhounds are my cup of tea, how are you progressing are you laying or dutching for a win ? i have greater success on the aussie dogs to UK and find TAB to be a great source of info / selections. (and live radio)
Hi Gary my problem with Greyhounds is mentality. If my head is right i know i could make greyhounds trading profitable, i have a strategy i am certain that would be profitable if i could make sure i didn't chase losses after a couple of losing trades.
I used to use Greydata for Aussie data not heard of that one i will have a check up on this site. problem i found little to no liquidity in Aussie races what strategy are you using then mate? -
@ryan-carruthers said in MY TURN FOR TO TAKE THIS SERIOUSLY:
@james-everard Nice SR!
Thanks Ryan still very early days mate before i increase my stakes from the minimum liabilty stake of £2, once i get to 100 plus matches and if the strike rate is still over 80% i will increase my staking. Had not such a good evening today with 2 losers out of 5 this evening, but sticking to my staking plan the stress is taken away from trading
