Simons April Trades
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24/04/2019
Tennis - nothing for me today.
Football - one LTD in Utrecht Vs Sittard at 2.68 which was a winner.
Daily total 0.4pts
April total 1.45 pts
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23/04/2019
Tennis - 3 trades today, all on my 250 lay strategy and all winners!! Hopefully a sign of things to come with this strat as it was so consistent last summer, but totally died off when the hard court season started.
Football - nothing today
Daily total 3.5 pts
April total 1.05 pts
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22/04/2019
Tennis- I had 3 trades on the tennis today. First one was to back Kukushkin Vs Berrettini if 1-1 after both serving. This lost badly! The next trade was one of my 250 lays which also lost. This one was so frustrating as we had 2 break points missed before going on to get broken immediately. Third trade was in the WTA, which I’m dipping my toes into. I layed Larrson when she was 5-0 up in the first set, and greened up for a half point profit at 5-2. I should have held on as she somehow lost the first set from being 5-0 up.
Football - I had a number of second half goals trades today, 1 loser and 3 winners to give me a small profit on the football for the day.
I found today mentally very difficult. My 2 losing tennis trades and 1 losing football trade all came in a row at the start of the day. Glad I plugged away though and turned -3 pts into just - 1.2. Still feeling quite downbeat about how this month is going. It’s been the same story since January. Smallish wins and smallish losses day to day. I can stomach a bad month, but consistently getting nowhere seems worse! Anyway that’s my mind dump! Better out than in
Daily total - 1.2
April total -2.45
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21/04/2019
Football - only the 2 trades again today. First one was a lay of Extramadura away to Deportivo La Coruna. Deportivo were in top when Extramdura took the lead. They continued to be on top so I layed Extra for 1 pt lib at 2.1. Extra then scored again early in the second half and Deportivo starting pushing to get back in the game so I layed again at 1.19 for another 1 pt liability. Deportivo got 1 back but not the second. A second would have got me a 6.5 pt profit. Been very close on these short priced lays recently, feel like one had to come in soon enough.
Second trade was a second half goal in Viborg Vs Naevestad. 1 pt stake at 1.6. This was a winner.Daily total -1.4 pts
April total - 1.25
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20/04/2019
Football - quiet day today, spent most the day suffering from man flu, so only placed 2 trades. First one was one of my away lays, Falkirk Vs Morton. Morton were 2 up when Falkirk started pressing, 4 shots on target and 3 corners in quick succession was enough to make me think the momentum had shifted and importantly that they were really pushing to get back in the game. The odds were insane at 1.07 to lay Morton, so just went in at 0.5 pt liability. Unfortunately the goals never game.
Other trade was a LTD in the Venlo Vs Graafschap game. 1 pt liability at 2.5 which was a winner.Daily total - 0.23
April total 0.15
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@simon nice turn around into profit matey!
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19/04/2019
Tennis - had 1 planned trade which never triggered.
Football - busy day on the football yesterday. I’ll update this later with all my trades as busy with the family today, but had 5 trades for 1.6 points profit
Daily total 1.6
April total 0.39
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18/04/2019
Tennis - 2 planned trades today, only 1 triggered. It was a losing trade on Tsitsipas vs Medvedev as Medvedev ran away with set 1. Frustratingly Tsitsipas then ran away with set 2 once I was out and loss taken. These are the breaks!
Football - nothing today, bring on the long weekend.
Daily total - 0.78pts
April total -1.21pts
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17/04/2019
Tennis - 1 trade today, layed Dimitrov vs Struff and then greened up when Struff broke him early in the first set.
Football - nothing for me today. Only game on my radar was Lazio vs Udinese for an away lay if they took the lead, but that won’t be happening now.
Daily profit 0.7 pts
April total -0.43 pts
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16/04/2019
Tennis - Only 1 trade in the tennis, I backed Londero Vs Aguer-Aliasime and I escaped with a small very small loss.
I also continued my scalping techniques and yielded 0.75pts, but again i will not include this in my total as i'm just testing at the moment, but testing is going very well this week so far.Football - Only 1 trade which was a LTD at 2.68 in the Osters Vs Degerfors game for 1pt lib. Good pre match and in play stats, the game seemed to die down in the second half which resulted in a 1pt loss. So 2 losses in a row on the second half goals, but it's still performing very solidly.
In the background I have also been working on a couple of bots using BF Bot Manager. One of these is to scalp the unders on Martins selections. Tested it out last night on baby stakes on a couple of games and it seems to be working.
I also have a couple of stategies from Proform which I have linked to the Bot and been testing them too, so hopefully these will be up and running soon once i'm confident they are behaving.Daily Total - 1.18
April Total -1.13
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@gary-brown yeah that would have been a smart trade Gary. Empoli came up on my away lays filter too, I can’t remember off the top of my head exactly but I don’t think they have won away from home all season. So the dominance of Atalanta and the security of Empoli’s rubbish away form would have made for a good trade.
Hindsight is always 20/20 though, and you couldn’t blame anyone for taking a LTD on that game with the pre game and in play stats. It was screaming out. -
@simon In hindsite Simon I just thought this Atlanta match was probably perfect for the draw no bet strategy. I wished I had done that at the time but hey I lost on this game as well. Not many games are like this where around 40 shots have taken place, lots on target and one side completely dominating without scoring.
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15/04/2019
Tennis - had a couple of value trades today. Neither of them triggered as there was a break of serve in the opening games. I followed Ryan’s post on Shapovalov though which was a winner.
I also did some scalping for 0.5 pt profit across a couple of games, but I won’t include that in my total as I’m just testing it out at the moment and using smaller stakes (so did well to get 0.5 pt)Football - In Sweden I LTD in the Orgryte Vs Frej game at 2.68 for 1 pt lib and in the Trellborgs Vs Norrby game I backed the next overs at 1.6. Both won. Final trade of the day was Atalanta Vs Empoli. LTD at 2.68. HOW did they not score!?!?!?!? A surprising loss but just have to know I did the right thing, entering the trade, was just one of those games.
Daily profit 0.624 pt
April total 0.05
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So about half way through the month, and the same frustration there for me. As you can see from my results it just seems to be small winning days, small losing days, all resulting in not really going anywhere. This is a lot better than losing lots of money obviously, but frustrating to put in work researching and trading to get no where. This is basically how my year has gone so far.
So any insight, advice, suggestions would be great if you have any? -
14/04/2019
Football - First trade of the day was using Ryans split stake on the Perth Glory Vs Newcastle Jets game. Both stakes matched and good profit. Frustratingly i put a LTD the in market at 2.68 and when the goals was scored the price was 2.7, so very close to a win there.
I used the split stake strategy again on a game in Estonia. I didn't put the second stake in at 50 imns as the game had died down after very good first half stats. A goal was scored soon after though, so made very little on this.
Next trade was a LTD on Thisted Vs Viborg for 1pt lib at 2.68. Viborg scored 2 quick goals which meant i got almost all my profit on this.
So good day so far, then the losers started rolling in.
Firstly Sassuolo Vs Parma i used the split stake strategy again. A missed pen on 40 was frustrating, and then i entered the second stake at about 55 when the action in H2 picked up and somehow Sassuolo failed to score. They hammered Parma, hit the woodwork, missed big chances, the goal just wasn't coming. Think they had about 5 SOT's in about 5 minutes. So very unlucky on this trade i feel. The pre match stats and in game action couldn't have been much better. When i took stop loss i was tempted to LTD due to the amount of action and the price was about evens, but my gut told me to leave it which proved correct as it ended 0-0 so that felt like a point won.
I used the split stake again in Lubljanan Vs Aluminij in Slovakia. Again great pre match and in play stats, but the goal just didn't come. The second half started slowly so I never put in the second stake thankfully, so at least my judgement was correct there.
Last trade of the day was a LTD in Utrecht Vs Vittese. I waited until late in the game and I saw the action picking up and LTD at 1.42 for 0.5 pt lib. The goal never came.Daily Profit -0.58
April total -0.57
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13/04/2019
Tennis - No tennis for me today. Tend to concentrate on the football at the weekend since there is so much to keep an eye on. Tennis Monday to Friday, football at the weekends.
Football - A few trades on the day. First one was backing the next over for 1 pt lib on the Vendsyssek Vs Aab game. This was a loser. Dissapointed I entered this trade. Pre game and in play were all great, but neither team had anything to play for, I was lured in by the stats but should have known better.
Made a good recovery from this though. I LTD in the Roma Vs Udinese game at 2.68 for 1 pt lib which won, I used Ryans split stake strategy on the Viking Vs Brann game and got both bets matched before the goal for a good profit. I also LTD in this game at 2.68 which won. Finally I backed the next over market at 1.6 in the second half of the Danubio Vs Defensor game in Uruguay which was taken from Keiths post on the forum, so thanks Keith, was also a winner.Daily Profit 0.29 pts
April total 0.01
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12/04/2019
Tennis - 2 ATP 250 lays today, both lost for 1.64 pts red. This is quite a high variance strategy so days like this will happen, just need to keep long term in mind.
Football - just managed to sneak 1 trade in this evening as had the in laws over for dinner. Backed the next overs market in the Breda game in the Erideverse at 1.6 which won for 0.6 pts green.
Daily profit - 1.04 pts
April total -0.28
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11/04/2019
Tennis- got involved with 2 ATP 250 lays I posted in the tennis thread. First one in Marrakech got to 4-4 with no brakes of serve which resulted in a scratch trade. The second one in Houston was a winner. I was planning on trading the Querrey game too, but the rain delay meant it started too late for me to trade as I had other commitments. This is definitely the worst thing about trading tennis!
Football - 1 trade on the only game anyone seemed to be on today, I LTD at 2.68 in the Silkborg game and greened up when the next goal was scored.
Daily profit 0.7 pts
April total 0.76 pts
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10/04/2019
Tennis - 3 ATP 250 lays today. The 1st one lost as Andreozzi never quite got going against Simon. The second one was a lay of Edmund against Tsonga. This one got to 4-4 with no breaks so as per my plan I exited which usually results in a small green, but Edmund had played the better tennis to this point so the market moved quite a bit in his favour resulting in a small red for me. Final lay of the day of Garin went in my favour as Chardy broke him in game 6 for over 1 pt profit. All lays are to 1 pt liability.
Football- posted a few lays on the football thread. First of these was Koln away to Duisburg which I laid Duisburg at 2.68 for 1 pt liability and greened up when Koln equalised. I also laid Reading at 2.68 away to Norwich for 1 pt liability and greened up when they equalised. I also had a second half goal trade in this game. I backed over 1.5 at 1.6 using a 1 pt stake which came in. In the Hull vs Wigan game I used Ryan’s Over 1.5 strategy and a goal came soon after my first bet in the market. So a good day overall. My only frustration is I hesitated on laying Wigan against Hull. I waited to see if Hull would start the second half well, and they scored early. The price was excellent at 1.8, and Hull had been the better team in H1 so I should have pulled the trigger really.
Daily profit 1.93pt
April total 0.06pt
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09/04/2018
Today didn’t go as initially planned but worked out for the better. Missed my ATP 250 lays in Marrakech as was out with my son in the morning.
However decided to play the Houston selections this evening after last nights encouraging results. 1 win, 1 loss and 1 scratch trade (the loss really should have been a win too as 3 BP’s missed in a row).
So nothing gained and nothing lost today. On to tomorrow.
