Simons April Trades
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Morning BTC! I decided to start this thread for April where I will aim to share every trade I do this month. Like all ideas us traders come up with, it is based on a sound hypothesis and hopefully a positive outcome. I feel my trading this year has stagnated a bit and I've not kicked on as much as I would have liked. Hopefully by sharing every trade I do, it may generate some feedback and I will learn something new which will ultimately lead to an improvement. So initially it seems self serving, but hopefully some lessons that everyone can learn from will come out of it.
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@gary-brown hi Gary, yeah I rarely actually LCS. I either back the next overs when it reaches 1.6, or I LTD if it’s a draw. Keeps liabilities down, I’m comfortable at these odds and more importantly, it seems to be profitable. Shame about my another strategies haha!
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@simon Also as Chris advised me LCS can be done by backing overs in the goal markets. I try to do this on my small bank to reduce liability needed to do a trade
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@lee-woodman yeah good point Lee, don’t need to jump up to the full 2 points to be fair. Thanks bud.
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@simon I think it’s very common to have more than 1pt liability on a ‘lay correct score’ trade. If it’s working and you see no reason it would stop working then I would increase it. You don’t even need to go from 1pts to 2pts, you could go 1.5 for a month
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30/04/2109
Tennis - although I had 10 trades highlighted I o my managed to trade 1 of them as had a very busy day. This trade was a 1 pt loss, although good to j ow the strategy made a profit in the day although I didn’t reap anything from it, days like that gives me confidence in it going forward.
Football - I didn’t look at any football today.
Daily total - 1 pt
April total -1.6pts
So a really disappointing month. The only strategy I use that actually made any money was second half goals in football. So maybe I need to up my liability per trade on those as they are my most consistent earner? I currently use 1 pt liability only, so maybe this could be upped to 2?
Anyway, onwards and upwards, keep on learning. Really frustrating results at the moment. -
29/04/2019
Tennis - 2 trades today. First was one of my 250 lays which lost again! These have been on a bad run now, but I’m confident they will turn around. There were 2 more but they have been rained off until tomorrow, so looking like it could be a busy one tomorrow.
Second was a value pick, I thought Fucsovics price looked to big Vs Sonego so I backed him at 1-1 for 2 pts, nibbled out some liability at points in the set and then greened up when he won set 1.Football - I had a few LTD’s lined up but none of them met my in play criteria. Still testing a bot to scalp Martins unders picks and added a bot for @Dave-Jessop unders filter too. Going to run these on small stakes for the next few months and see what how it goes. Took me long enough to get the bot behaving which I think it is now, so let the testing begin.
Daily profit 0.22 pts
April total -0.6 pts
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27-28/04/2019
No trading at all over the weekend. Was away at a wedding and then traveling back home most of Sunday, and was planning a bit of trading on the train if WiFi was acceptable, but we got moved to a bus, so no trading at all!
Back on it today
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26/04/2019
Tennis - had only 1 trade as I was traveling yesterday and WiFi on the train was shocking. Traded the first of my ATP lays which lost, as did the other 2, so thanks scotrail for your rubbish WiFi saving me!
Football - also just 1 trade. LTD in Oss Vs Dordrecht which won! LTD and backing overs been the only strategy making me money this month.
Away at a wedding this weekend so trading will be v limited, as it was last night. Will enjoy the weekend off, but no doubt sneak one or 2 in at some point.
Daily total - 0.4
April total - 0.82
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@simon Ref the scalping it's a bit of an art form rather than a science but usually i'm in until the price stops moving. If you watch a few markets you'll notice that it moves in a fairly consistent linear fashion when there's not much action. It'll go all the way to a certain price point where it just stops for a few minutes, its like it gets stuck!
Typically this is around 1.40-1.45ish but depending on the game it could be higher or lower. I get out at that point.
Conversely if there is good action in the game the price wont move in that linear fashion, itll bump up and down a bit and that is another good sign to get out. I will sometimes get back in again when the price resumes moving in that predictable straight line.
Of course all of this assumes there's no goal!
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@chris-watts makes sense when comparing it to the tennis!
I had a test scalping in the goals markets last night, followed you on the Djugarden game and also thought there was value in the unders price in the Getafe Vs Real game is also did a bit of scalping there.
What is your method when scalping the goals markets. In and out for a couple of ticks and keep recycling, or in until you feel the game livening up then out at this point? -
@simon said in Simons April Trades:
25/04/2019
Tennis - absolute disaster on the tennis today. 4 losses and one scratch trade all in the 250 lays. Amazingly still in profit over the week in these, but was a brutal day.
Football - 2 winners on my second half goals trades firstly in the Honka Vs Turku game in Finland, and also in the Djugarden Vs Norrkoping match.
I also scalped a bit of the unders in this game too and in the Real Madrid game for small profit.Daily total -1.87 pts
April total -0.42
We were all lucky in that Djurgarden v Norrkoping match?!
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25/04/2019
Tennis - absolute disaster on the tennis today. 4 losses and one scratch trade all in the 250 lays. Amazingly still in profit over the week in these, but was a brutal day.
Football - 2 winners on my second half goals trades firstly in the Honka Vs Turku game in Finland, and also in the Djugarden Vs Norrkoping match.
I also scalped a bit of the unders in this game too and in the Real Madrid game for small profit.Daily total -1.87 pts
April total -0.42
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How to perfectly sum up the day I’ve had, went live on one of my racing bots today, just checked in to see it placed a bet on a 15.5 shot which won.......lovely...........the bot was still in simulation mode
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@simon No worries, these days I dont so much list it as such but I certainly have a few bullet points in my mind. Similar to how you guys want to see your tennis picks play. You know if your player is a baseline player you want to see them playing good strokes from the baseline and hitting the lines. When its football im looking for the team im interested in to behave in the way that gives them maximum opportunity. So with City last night I was waiting for Silva, Sterling and Ageuro to start running the show and looking dangerous. I was also looking for a shift in the possession number, I wanted to see City dominating possession. As soon as they started to do that it was easy for me to start becoming active in the market. It was the confirming signal that my original bullish impression on City was correct.
From there it was a case of deciding which market offered the best route - I could have laid United....big price so I didnt fancy that. I could have backed City....small price, vulnerable to United nicking a goal against the run of play. I could have started to back some probable scorelines.....liquidity and exiting can be tricky in the CS market for this type of trade. Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 seemed the obvious choices - they kept both sides playing for my trade, there was plenty of time for the goals to come so I wasnt going to be under time pressure, I could scalp to reduce my liabilities as the game was playing on. It was also likely that the market would overreact and the over 2.5 price would crash further than it would normally because its City.
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@chris-watts also really appreciate you taking the time to respond Chris! Thanks
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@chris-watts yeah good point Chris, what I don't have in my plan is any flexibility.....at all!! I think I've gone down a path with blinkers on to be honest, and afraid to veer from it. All sounds so easy when you put it like that haha!
My biggest problem is hesitation. That's why I've made my plans so strict, to get rid of that hesitation, and place the trade if it meets the criteria, and if not, forget about it and move on. I think there is a place for this, but i definitely agree that i also need to add flexibility. If i didn't i wouldn't be posting here asking for advice on how to improve what i'm doing.
So when you are assessing a game and making a plan, are you listing what you want to see happening in play before siding with a team for example, and then when this happens, looking at the markets you can play to minimise risk and maximise opportunity? -
@simon Simple mate....you build some flexibility into your plan! Allow yourself some windows of opportunity within the plan using small bits of your bank. You still plan on what conditions you want to enter the market but you allow yourself a margin of flexibility on how to actually execute.
I research the games being played that day in the morning, some make my trading plan others make the watch list. The ones on the plan get executed in exactly the way I planned (the good day LTD for example). The ones on the watch list I monitor to see if a line of least resistance can be spotted. Take the Man U game last night - It wasn't on my plan but it was on my watch list.
I was very bullish on Man City winning as I'm sure everyone was (I actually thought there was value in their 1.5 pre match price) and by a reasonable margin. United started quite well so I sat back and did nothing. Then from the last 5-10 mins of the first half it was becoming clear that City were getting the upper hand. Their passing got slicker and quicker, Bernardo Silva started to get on the ball, Sterling and Aguero started to get in down the channels.
I was waiting for this to happen so I could start to side with City. I hadn't planned on how I would side with City in the market but I had it in my mind that if they started to dominate I would get involved and had 2 points sat aside for the purpose - it was my pre-planned thought, all I had to do was wait for the game to confirm what I thought would happen and decide on the safest way to take a position.
Ultimately I chose to drip into the over 2.5 market as opposed to backing City just in case United picked themselves up again. That didn't happen and City got a goal reasonably quickly after the break but not before I'd got a couple of half stakes into the market.
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@chris-watts I guess my post isn’t 100% true. I’m trialing a few things in the tennis at the moment on the WTA side, so actually placed quite a few trades there but not including it in my P&L at the moment since it’s small stakes and testing at the moment.
I also have a bot I’m testing to scalp the unders markets, but again early days in this so not including it.
But in essence you are correct, only 1 trade last night I put any real money on. I know some traders on here are all about quality over quantity, whereas others like yourself like to be active and dynamic in the market during a game. Where I struggle with the latter is I do my research in the morning, mark the games I’ll keep an eye on, and then what my entry and exit points are. If this criteria isn’t met then I’ll let the game pass. So it’s very rigid, and not very dynamic. The good point with this is I have no hesitation when something meets my criteria. I’m in and out exactly when I planned to be. The downside is I must miss out on a lot of opportunity.
So what is the solution? I like having a plan and sticking to it, I think I need this, but how do you allow for a more dynamic approach with this mindset? -
@simon so few trades buddy, so many inplay opportunities on the footy tonight?
