"The Good Day" LTD system
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On your small dataset I improved s/r to 87% by trading out only after 3 goals. If a 2nd went in then invariably so did a 3rd. A kind of balance between trading out for minimal gains regardless and letting everything run to the end.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Chris-Watts in terms of generating selections I had a go myself for Mon. Are you ignoring Israeli leagues, German 3 liga and Mexico as I got a few more selections than you?
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@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
@gary-brown said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
@chris-watts Hi Chris how does the data look if you back 0-0 as insurance bet. Mind you odds for this type must be above 15 for 0-0 at start of match.
2nd thought you probably wouldn't be able to look at this as you wont have the data for 0-0 odds at start of the match. Sorry it was an idea but probably not worth looking at
Odds would be available on oddsportal.com
@richard-latimer said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
@gary-brown said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
@chris-watts Hi Chris how does the data look if you back 0-0 as insurance bet. Mind you odds for this type must be above 15 for 0-0 at start of match.
2nd thought you probably wouldn't be able to look at this as you wont have the data for 0-0 odds at start of the match. Sorry it was an idea but probably not worth looking at
Odds would be available on oddsportal.com
This is why I mentioned dates though. I find it so helpful to have the dates so you can go back and look at individual matches. On your smaller sample set @Chris-Watts, it wouldn't take long at all to add these. You have a starting point the rest of us don't have as to when you started collecting data otherwise I'd offer to help.
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@gary-brown said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
@chris-watts Hi Chris how does the data look if you back 0-0 as insurance bet. Mind you odds for this type must be above 15 for 0-0 at start of match.
2nd thought you probably wouldn't be able to look at this as you wont have the data for 0-0 odds at start of the match. Sorry it was an idea but probably not worth looking at
Odds would be available on oddsportal.com
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@chris-watts Hi Chris how does the data look if you back 0-0 as insurance bet. Mind you odds for this type must be above 15 for 0-0 at start of match.
2nd thought you probably wouldn't be able to look at this as you wont have the data for 0-0 odds at start of the match. Sorry it was an idea but probably not worth looking at
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Looking at the data - taking the halftime 0-0's out improves the profit by nearly 8 points! it also doubles the yield. Factoring in the cost of taking a loss at halftime on 0-0 games you can probably assume its worth doing or at least worth continuing to monitor.
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@ryan-carruthers Yeah absolutely, will be interesting to see what happens when the sample grows. I keep thinking I should run a parallel project on the leagues that I currently don't include too!
Im also thinking about whether or not it would be better to trade out for a small loss at halftime if its 0-0 - of the losses 50% of them were 0-0 at halftime. I wonder whether it might be more profitable to not risk it if its 0-0 at halftime and protect the bank.
The average loss liability wipes out 2.6 winners essentially - Need to give it some more thought/analysis!
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@gary-brown Gary if ever you want to see if there are any selections and there not posted go to the ratings page on the BTC dashboard and download them for the day you want and then filter out by the ELO diff, over 2.5 goals expected and the stronger home offence to away defense. I will endeavor to post them however.
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@chris-watts interesting when start tracking leagues what happens and the data, we did the same with pace project checked courses etc....
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Just looking at the losses on this - 25% of them come from the South Korean league! lets put that on hold currently!
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No selections today guys.
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Sheet updated with the results from the weekend. Unfortunately I wasnt around to post them owing to a family emergency.
the latest numbers look like this:
84 selections
67 winners (set and forget)
79 winners (traded)
Strike rate 80% (set and forget)
Strike rate 94% (traded)
Yield 8%
19.3 points profit to level stakes
Return on capital 63.3%Starting to dislike the K League! might drop it for the time being, the games are intermittently in play and there seems to be a fair few draws.
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@richard-latimer Hi Richard,
Apologies for the slow response, a family emergency over the weekend meant I wasnt around. In answer to your questions:
No there are no dates - this was an oversight from the beginning, I didnt start off by copying them across and by then the sample had grown to a point where I didnt feel like the effort was worth it to go back and add them all.
The transfer sheet is where I put the required data from the ratings page before its transferred to the results sheet. I've put some formulas and stuff in the results sheet that grab the matches from the transfer sheet so I dont have to manually type everything.
Yes - normally I will add the selections and post them here ahead of time.
Does that make sense?
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any selections for today guys
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Hi @Chris-Watts , couple of questions:
Are there dates on your sheet against fixtures as I can't see them?
What is the transfer sheet?
Do selections appear/get posted on the results sheet ahead of time normally?More of a suggestion than a question the last one. Why don't you link to the sheet in your signature. It's a good way of keeping the link in plain site as can easily get lost at the top of the page if you see what I mean.
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Interesting idea. I'll keep an eye on this for sure. Thanks @Chris-Watts
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thanks Chris for the reply. I look forward to checking out the weekend trades
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@gary-brown there would have been Gary, unfortunately I was out of the office when the site came back up. Will update over the weekend.
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Were they any selectioms for today guys
gutted that it went down, but back ready for an action packed weekend!