"The Good Day" LTD system
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@chris-watts Thanks Chris for the info.
Well it looks a good angle to look at definitely and well worth your time and effort in testing the system.I am keen to keen to keep following this and look forward to seeing how it all works.
Keep up the good work -
@gary-brown Gary, we havent confirmed its profitable in the long run yet, we're still testing and back testing currently. It cant be done by a filter as not all of the metrics used are in the stats software. The data is taken from the ratings page instead and then manually copied in to the spreadsheet. I also post it daily on here.
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@leo-mantle No, not yet - im only recording the results as per set and forget as it would be too onerous to record the profit figures for every time you traded out. When you trade out the profit will vary based on time in the match and who scored the goal. If the underdog scores and its early in the game the profit will be minimal or even negative. If the fav scores and its late int he game the profit will be nearly 100% of the original lay value. If its profitable on a set and forget basis though it should be profitable with trading out too.
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@gary-brown said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
@chris-watts Hi Chris with the traded results is this trading out after the first goal?
The results are based on set and forget @Gary-Brown
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@chris-watts Hi Chris with the traded results is this trading out after the first goal?
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Hi guys I like the look of your system for laying the draw and from your data it looks like its profitable in the long run. I was wondering how I could set up a filter to get the possible trades.
I am not sure how to do this especially with the ELO differential =
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@chris-watts any indication as to which is the most profitable (trading out or set an forget) ?
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@chris-watts Date wise, it looks like it includes the current day from midnight, the whole of the next day and then any overnight games. So i have run it 9-14th and the first result is from 00:00 this morning through until 02:00 on the 11th.
Like i said, not sure how the figures are compiled to say whether its weird or normal, it just seemed like a huge jump
I think for now ill run it daily and trade that days games plus any overnight
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@lee-woodman hmmm that's a couple of strange elements that have come up now isn't it depending on when the ratings are run. First I missed games from Sunday when the ratings were run on Friday and now the numbers change when you run them the day before.
Probably need to make a call on when to run the ratings so there's some consistency in the process - on the day seems like the best choice. There must be some upload to them overnight i imagine.
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@chris-watts Wow thats weird, i took them from yesterdays sheet (as i tend to do them 2 days at a time) and thats what they were, ive re-run now and its changed to what you have. Thats a big change, though im not sure how the figure is compiled so maybe its expected
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@lee-woodman Really? that's interesting! I have them at 2.57 & 2.63??
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@chris-watts wicked I'll take November
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@ryan-carruthers I got October, Lee is working on December so that leaves Nov
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@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
Selections for 09/04/19
England Championship Preston v Leeds
England League One Sunderland v Burton
England Championship Bristol City v West Brom
France Ligue 1 Nimes v RennesIve got Sunderland and Preston games as having a goal expectancy of 1.73 and 2 respectively. Nimes games doesnt even come up on my sheet for some reason! Theres an overnight game aswell, just in case anyone is doing 'set and forget' - DC United vs Montreal
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@chris-watts we know who's taking what months?
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@ryan-carruthers No worries mate, i havent made much progress with October yet anyway!
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Sheet updated with yesterdays results:
53 selections
44 winners (set and forget)
50 winners (traded)
Strike Rate 83.02% (set and forget)
Strike rate 94.3% (traded)
18.85 points profit to level stakes (set and forget)
Yield 13%
Return on capital 63.88% -
@chris-watts Wicked, I'll be doing the back testing this week matey
just had a nightmare with the accountant! lol -
Selections for 09/04/19
England Championship Preston v Leeds
England League One Sunderland v Burton
England Championship Bristol City v West Brom
France Ligue 1 Nimes v Rennes -
@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
2/3 for today’s as set and forget. 3/3 if you traded. Will update the sheet tomorrow.
another good day!
