"The Good Day" LTD system
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@craig-brown No worries, shout up if you need a hand.
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@chris-watts it does mate I am fairly new so will have a little play around today. I only just worked the filter out yesterday
. Cheers mate appreciate it. -
@craig-brown Its shared already matey - the criteria is outlined on the spreadsheet and can probably be found below in the text somewhere too.
Essentially its this:
Download the days ratings from the BTC dashboard
open it up in excel
filter out games that have an ELO diff of more than 100
filter out games that have less than 2.5 goal expectancy
then filter out games where the home teams offence is weaker than the away teams defence and vice versa.That should leave you with the selections that I post up - albeit I only use major leagues so not czech youth or russian third division etc.
Does that make sense?
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@chris-watts wow this is pretty impressive Chris, it's really helping me see what is achievable following a strict system and not looking for bets when there really isn't anything on that day. Are you planning on sharing your filter in the near future or are you planning on more testing first? (Apologies if you already have)
Well done mate.
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Thanks Chris. My aim is to build up the bank and be able to keep a decent size bank like what you have which will generate an income of around 2k a month.
That's my dream!
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@gary-brown it’s doable Gary. This is just the profits for this particular system. I also trade inplay using other strategies. Actually when I read your thread much of it is very similar to my methods for in play. A lot of scalping the goals markets after early goals. A little bit of laying correct score from the second half and I also back strong teams who are dominating or are behind against the run of play. I also like BTTS in certain situations.
The last 6mths or so have really taken off for me. I might make it as a trader after all!
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@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
on capital previously - corrected now and is actually higher. Not bad for 25 days results
WOW! Thats amazing Chris. Is that your actucal profits you have been making. Thats only a dream for me but you inspire me.
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@chris-watts this is excellent! Insane strike rate!
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Latest Results:
123 selections
98 winners - set and forget
117 winners - traded
Strike rate - 79.67% set and forget
Strike rate - 95.12% traded
28.3 points profit to level stakes
Yield 8%
Return on capital 84.9%I actually had the formula wrong for return on capital previously - corrected now and is actually higher. Not bad for 25 days results!
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No selections for today.
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@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
Three selections for today:
Poland Ekstraklasa Piast Gliwice v Zaglebie
Norway Eliteserien Odd v Viking
Scotland Championship Ayr v Partick3/3 today, will update the sheet tomorrow.
Excellent again, meanwhile if you were looking at France Ligue 2 Metz qualified on 2.51 goal expectancy and drew 1-1 while Ballymena qualified in Ireland on positional difference of 1 and the game ended 4-3. another 50/50 split for the draw heavy criteria I mentioned earlier. Also on the trading side an oppportunity to back the draw at 1-0 and then lay again @ 1-1.
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@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
Three selections for today:
Poland Ekstraklasa Piast Gliwice v Zaglebie
Norway Eliteserien Odd v Viking
Scotland Championship Ayr v Partick3/3 today, will update the sheet tomorrow.
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@richard-latimer I’ll pit it back up next time I’m on the laptop.
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@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
@richard-latimer have you looked at this angle using the larger data set? I can re post it if you want it? There was 300 selections on there.
No but I'd certainly like to
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@richard-latimer have you looked at this angle using the larger data set? I can re post it if you want it? There was 300 selections on there.
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If the high number of draws were to hold over time on match ups with positional difference of only 1 (or ave less) then these could be played in a whole different way. Also the lower the goal expectancy would seem the higher chance of a draw (up to a point I guess).
My records from just 15/4 onwards is as follows:
Positional Difference of 1 or less (less comes into play when season new and based on averages as far as I can see): 8 draws, 7 non draws
Goal Expectancy 2.51-2.59: 4 draws, 5 non drawsThese could either be played as a straight set and forget or wait for 1 team to score and back the draw at this point. Trade out after next goal. Maybe back the next correct score in case of same team scoring next or double down in the hope of a comeback.
Sheff Wed which appeared later on under 2.5 goal expectancy and also Bodo/Glimt was a 50/50 split on the draw also hence why curious before.
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@chris-watts said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
@richard-latimer When I ran the ratings the goal expectancy was as per below:
England Championship Sheffield Wed v Bristol City 11 7 1493 1507 -14 0.651 -0.607 0.703 -0.567 2.6 -19 9
Norway Eliteserien Bodo/Glimt v Sarpsborg 08 3.6 7 1547 1573 -26 0.601 -0.429 0.747 -0.585 2.55 14 14Ah I see, wonder when that changed.
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Three selections for today:
Poland Ekstraklasa Piast Gliwice v Zaglebie
Norway Eliteserien Odd v Viking
Scotland Championship Ayr v Partick -
Latest Results:
120 Selections
95 winners - set and forget
114 winners - traded
Strike rate - 80% set and forget
strike rate - 95% traded
Yield - 8%
25.45 points profit to level stakes
Return on capital - 56.71%
