"The Good Day" LTD system
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@chris-watts I am new to this trading malarky (I am ex match better and poker player) but am really keen to find a system that works. Yours sounds really interesting so I thought I would run some independent backtesting. I notice from the thread that some testing is going on but figured that another pair of eyes wouldn't hurt.
I have focused on the UK leagues (Prem, championship, L1, L2 & national league premier). I have downloaded all the results from those leagues for 17/18 and 18/19 so far, downloaded all the available ratings from BTC for those leagues and matched the data. There are a few gaps in the ratings so I am missing data for some fixtures, but still have 3896 matches. Of these we have 357 that meet the criteria (ELO diff < 100, Home att stronger than away def, away def stronger than home attack, Goal expectancy > 2.5).
Now the interesting bit....My data shows that these matches had a draw % of 31.37% which is considerably higher than the average for those seasons of 26.48%. It also shows , based on B365 odds, BETTING on the draw would have given a profit of £536.6 based on a £10 stake (ROI of ~15%) and LAYING the draw would have resulted in an equivalent loss. Counter-intuitively the sweet spot for catching draws in English leagues seems to be those matches where the teams are quite closely matched but not very. E.g. betting on the draw where the difference between the odds on the home win and the away win is between 1.4 and 2.2 would give a profit of £1086 (11.4% ROI).
I have also tested the Spanish (La liga & segunda) and the Bundesliga but there isn't enough data on those to draw any firm conclusions. They are showing a broadly net zero profit/loss for the system.
Also interestingly, those data items that you would expect to be a good indicator of a draw (e.g. goal expectancy) actually only appear to have a weak correlation. E.g. you would think that matches with a goal expectancy of 2.5 (low scoring games definitely give more draws) but the opposite is true. I suspect that much of the data we might rely on as part of a formula should be viewed cautiously.
I know from the thread that you are showing good profits from the system, albeit over a limited time/number of matches, so not sure what the discrepancy is. There are some options:
- I have made a pigs ear of the analysis
- My analysis of the English leagues is correct but the system still works on the non English leagues
- The system doesn't work and the results so far are a blip.
I'm really interested in your thoughts and those of other testers on this thread. Now I have it all set up I can pretty easily run different analysis so happy to explore further.
Hope it all makes sense.
- I have made a pigs ear of the analysis
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@lee-woodman aha, thanks
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@andreas-skarin You wont get draw odds that high! The games which are expected to be one-side will be probably 4.5 at most, average would be about 3.8-4.0
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@lee-woodman Thanks! Then I know
Pretty high risk if its odds 10-15? -
@andreas-skarin said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
dont really understand the system. Is it lay the draw from Kick off and let it run to full
The idea is to lay from kick off (or pre-game) and just let it run, or you can trade out after a goal if you prefer
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I dont really understand the system. Is it lay the draw from Kick off and let it run to full time?
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@richard-latimer didn't see this so I've already had a bet matched but thanks, I will avoid in future
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@james-h said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
Seems to be two games for tomorrow:
16:30 - Finland Veikkausliga - Ilves v Honka
18:00 - Sweden Superettan - Degerfors v BrageGo careful on Ilves. Goal Expectancy 2.56. I've found that removing anything 2.6 or below has given a much nicer sheen to the results I've been getting.
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Seems to be two games for tomorrow:
16:30 - Finland Veikkausliga - Ilves v Honka
18:00 - Sweden Superettan - Degerfors v Brage -
@richard-latimer fair enough, certainly seemed to be the case today as it finished 4-2!
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@james-h said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
@richard-latimer @Lee-woodman I'm actually going to discount the Polish game too - looking at the league table, I don't think either team have anything to play for.
What I'm figuring out more on goals in general, both teams having nothing to play for seems to lead to a more open game if anything where goals are more likely. It's when both teams have way too much to lose that the game can be cagey. If neither team cares the defence have often gone on holiday.
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@richard-latimer @Lee-woodman I'm actually going to discount the Polish game too - looking at the league table, I don't think either team have anything to play for.
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@lee-woodman said in "The Good Day" LTD system:
@james-h I have the last game only as ive discounted the Czech games, like you suggest
It's what I've got too. If you'd done ratings last night you would have had Kansas in MLS too.
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@james-h I have the last game only as ive discounted the Czech games, like you suggest
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As far as I can tell there are only three for today:
12:00 - Czech Youth League - Liberec U21 v Sparta Prague U21
14:00 - Czech Youth League - Slovacko U21 v Plzen U21
17:00 - Poland Ekstraklasa - Jagiellonia v Pogon SzczecinI'll ignore the Czech games - I'm not a fan of U21 games as you never know how many senior players will be included.
Might be worth someone double-checking that these are the games - I'm fairly confident but have only been following this for a few days.
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@lee-woodman thanks for posting these. I'm avoiding Eibar/Betis as they don't have much to play for
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@lee-woodman nice one mate, appreciate it.
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@craig-brown Quite a few today. Just double check they have something to play for and that you are happy to play that league:
11.00 Denmark Aalborg Aarhus
12.45 Denmark Lyngby Koge
1.00 Spain Eibar Betis
1.30 Belgium Anderlecht St. Liege
2.00 Italy Lazio Atalanta
2.00 Turkey Akhisar Genclik Spor Yeni Malatyaspor
4.00 France Monaco St Etienne
4.30 Sweden Halmstad Osters
5.00 Germany Bayer Leverkusen Eintracht Frankfurt
5.00 Spain Albacete Numancia
5.00 Turkey Galatasaray Besiktas
8.00 France Lyon Lille
22.30 Chile A. Italiano U. De Chile -
This post is deleted!
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@lee-woodman have you run Chris watts today mate? I can't get them on my phone
