Making myself accountable for my trades!
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@lee-woodman I like it, just out of interest what has changed which has made you curb those triggers?
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Definitely been the best few weeks of trading ive had. Ive noticed a lot of triggers which normally wouldve caused me to look for trades, to start researching even more angles/filters or addtional trading strategies which would dilute my attention from what im already doing and ive been able to curb those and remain focused on what im still working on. With the international break ive traded sporadically, despite itchy fingers, and im happy with my trades this week.
Im certainly starting to pay more attention to the big picture of trading and to respect it as more of a discipline and a mental battle!
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Been a bit quieter for the last few days, Cheltenham week for a matched bettor is a goldmine so bit busier with that!
Thats meant i havent been tempted to veer away from my pre-planned trades though and its been going well. Ive hit my months target so im happy with that. It wasnt a great weekend results wise but im confident it was just variance after a decent previous week, as i do try and check each losing trade afterwards. Ive been noticing patterns aswell in my selections, for example, 87% which had a FH goal then also had a 2H goal. I havent been recording the price or second half goal times for this filter but that seems a high SR so maybe something to consider recording aswell
My other filter, which looks for 2H goals, is looking decent aswell for 1 and also for 2 second half goals, although too small a sample yet. I have able to back-test this filter to confirm the SR. I havent been able to back test against odds but i wanted to at least check if the strike rate stood up, after all the average odds shouldnt vary too much once you get past a certain amount of games
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@martin-futter I lay at 1.8, which is usually around 20-25'. I dont like to match much later than 25' unless there are really strong pre game stats AND loads of action (ie when you really feel a goal is inevitable). I definitely wouldnt lay after 30'.
Laying the HT draw also has a good SR for the same picks (letting it run, not trading out) . I only recently started recording the odds for this, i did so as i was missing so many trades due to early goals so wanted to see if there was another angle to somehow get in earlier without creating big liabilities
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The last few days have carried on in the same way as last weekend. Fewer games traded but I’ve concentrated more on the process rather than the outcome and it’s worked much better. I’m still looking for FH goals, which is a consistently profitable strategy for me, and I will compound the stakes as results allow. I’m now collating information on a filter for SH goals - these can be traded a number of ways as they have a good SR on LCS at Ht, LTD at HT and also 2 SH goals. Despite having loads of ideas, I won’t consider adding more until I have refined this filter to suss out the best way to play these and what parameters work best
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@sean-fitzgerald I have considered something along those lines but ive found the same as Martin, albeit on a low sample, that a lot have 1 FHG but not 2 so i do consider it a different trade
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@sean-fitzgerald yes not a bad idea but I noticed a very low amount of my picks don't have a fhg, yet nearly all of them have less than 2
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@lee-woodman said in Making myself accountable for my trades!:
Amazing what difference a reduction in trades and a bit of focus can have. This weekend has been so much better having focussed on just a handful of games and never more than 2 or 3 at once. I never felt out of control and only entered 2 trades which werent pre-researched, and one of those was laying Southampton against United at 2.5, a gift of a trade!
The number of points i made this weekend (fri-sun) was really good but im more happy with the way i traded
great to hear this!
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@martin-futter said in Making myself accountable for my trades!:
@lee-woodman it's a shame the under 1.5 fhg market isn't more liquid!
@martin-futter said in Making myself accountable for my trades!:
@lee-woodman it's a shame the under 1.5 fhg market isn't more liquid!
Could you use FG market where imagine there is more liquidity but just play your trade out in FH?
I’ve been playing with the idea of FHG. I have a filter that seems to going well early doors. I’m only interested in FH but using FG O/U market.
So back under 2.5 FG and exiting after 20mins for green when no goal. I’m still playing with optimal exit points.
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Amazing what difference a reduction in trades and a bit of focus can have. This weekend has been so much better having focussed on just a handful of games and never more than 2 or 3 at once. I never felt out of control and only entered 2 trades which werent pre-researched, and one of those was laying Southampton against United at 2.5, a gift of a trade!
The number of points i made this weekend (fri-sun) was really good but im more happy with the way i traded
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@martin-futter Yep, definitely!
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Had a very up and down week. Last weekend (fri-sun) was extremely frustrating but largely by own doing. Over-trading and getting into trades which weren’t on my original list or weren’t my own and it ended up chaotic. I’ve got so many ideas of angles that I’ve been trying to explore too much, rather than focus on one thing.
My FH goals strike rate is really good still and they’re easy trades to execute once researched (could actually be ‘set and forget’) so I’m going to trade these as I have been and record additional data for later analysis to help improve the strike rate.
The FH under 1.5 strategy I will continue for now but I’m not confident this will be become viable. I think looking for goals feels more natural to me. Plus theyre almost all low liquidity games and thus I’m sure the prices are too high, in which case the SR needs to be amazing. And it’s not scale able on these games without prices being pushed higher still
I’m also collecting odds for a filter I have which has a very good chance of 1 SH goal and 2 SH goals, tested over a few years. Unfortunately my info doesn’t include odds so I’m going to record odds and results and analyse.
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19/20/21.2.19
Nothing much happening for my trades the last few days. Only did about 3 or 4 trades so not much to post.I have been looking at some historical data and have started to look for trends. Ive got a filter which has a high goal expectancy but also includes goal times. Unfortunately it doesnt have odds but im going to trade these games and look how odds move in certain scenarios in the game
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18.2.19
Another small loss today.
FH LTD
2 out 3 landed, unfortunately one scored after just 3 minutes so didnt get the full profit from this. The one loser shouldve had a goal, id trade all of these again
Lay CS at HT
1 out 2 scored. Pre-game stats on the loser were really good and there was quite a bit of action in the FH, unfortunately it seemed to die down after the break whereas the opposite had been happening for both teams all season
FH 01.5
None todayCompletely disheartening few days. I hope its just a bit of bad luck and nothing else. Still ahead for the month. We shall see!
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17.2.19
Terrible day today! Just stuck to 3 strategies again and, although i ended up in a 2pt loss, i can see better which were bad trades and which were just unluckyFH LTD
Only hit 2 out 4 today. I completely hesitated on one trade but went ahead anyway and it lost so im definitely kicking myself on that one. The other loser was a 'maybe' but pregame stats were decent and so were in-play stats so im 50/50 if id do this again. If i was being selective i couldve talked myself out of this one, which i guess i need to try and do
FH Under 1.5
Small loss again on these. Still early days, still collating info and no filters yet
Lay CS at HT
These did me today. One or two i shouldnt have done in hindsight and a couple of losers werent bad calls as i know afterwards that other members were on these (EG, napoli & lille games)A bad day profit wise but i feel like ive learnt a lot, which is a bit of consolation i guess. I still need to reduce the number of trades on a busy game day to be more selective
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@martin-futter Yes, i tend to queue in the morning and then adjust just before KO if necessary
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@lee-woodman said in Making myself accountable for my trades!:
16.2.19
Lots of trades today, just stuck to 3 strategies though:
FH LTD - Had 7 on my shortlist, all 7 had a FH goal. Still not 100% how to trade these for the best as my SR is good but today ended in a slight loss on these as 1 was untradeable (goal within 1 minute) and 3 out of 6 ended up 1-1. I may end up laying the HT CS as i like the finality of '1 goal wins the trade'
FH O1.5 - Small loss on these today, still early days so i havent refined odds/leagues as i have very little data. Liquidity is an issue meaning taking slightly higher odds than ideal but ill persist and see how i go
Lay CS at HT - Couple of points up on these. Drip laying from 4.5 down to 2.0....average odds is usually about 3.5 on matched tradesProbably too many trades today but i stuck to my 3 strategies which worked well. The only trades i needed to do 'on the fly' were the laying CS trades and most were pre-researched
I ask for lower prices when liquidity is not strong, have you tried that on the 1.5 market?
