Making myself accountable for my trades!
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16.2.19
Lots of trades today, just stuck to 3 strategies though:
FH LTD - Had 7 on my shortlist, all 7 had a FH goal. Still not 100% how to trade these for the best as my SR is good but today ended in a slight loss on these as 1 was untradeable (goal within 1 minute) and 3 out of 6 ended up 1-1. I may end up laying the HT CS as i like the finality of '1 goal wins the trade'
FH O1.5 - Small loss on these today, still early days so i havent refined odds/leagues as i have very little data. Liquidity is an issue meaning taking slightly higher odds than ideal but ill persist and see how i go
Lay CS at HT - Couple of points up on these. Drip laying from 4.5 down to 2.0....average odds is usually about 3.5 on matched tradesProbably too many trades today but i stuck to my 3 strategies which worked well. The only trades i needed to do 'on the fly' were the laying CS trades and most were pre-researched
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@martin-futter Yes, that will probably be the case. I wouldve been better sticking to 3.5 or less so once ive got a decent number ill decide what that figure may be
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@martin-futter Started last Saturday.
Only 18 trades so far:
15 winners, 3 Losers, average odds 3.75, profit 2.8 pts
Ive actually put a bit down on these so no fake odds, low liquidity has been a bit of an issue. Ive not gone above 4.5, though thats for no particular reason so im going to record the higher odds aswell -
@martin-futter Ive only been looking at it properly for about a week so its very early days and very small stakes but its something that im sure i can refine to be a decent strategy. Its gone well over the last week, and the profit ive made id be happy with each week, but like i said im not getting ahead of myself.
Im basically looking for teams where neither team has had more than 25% of games go over 1.5 FH all season and where the average of the 2 teams is 20% or less. Then im checking H2H as i think that dictates a lot, especially in FH goals. I dont have a set criteria but i wouldnt lay if more than 20% of their H2H have gone over 1.5 FH.
Its manual at the minute but only actually takes 15 minutes a day. Once ive decided a criteria then i can get a shortlist produced and its basically a 'set and forget'
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15.2.19
Wellington v Melbourne - FH LTD - Laid HT draw just after KO and laid again at 1.8. Trade lost
Al Kharitiyath v Al Ahli - FH LTD - Laid HT draw just after KO. Trade won
Al Dahfra v Al Ain - Drip layed the CS at HT. All trades matched before goal was scored. Trade won
Sonderjyske v Aarhus - Laid FH O1.5 - Trade won
Auxerre v Clermont - Laid FH O1.5 - Trade won
Roda v Cambuur - Drip Laid CS at HT from 4.5 down to 2.0. No goal. Trade lost
Nimes v Dijon - Drip Laid CS at HT from 4.5 down to 2.0. Goal scored. Trade won
Sonderjyske v Aarhus - Drip Laid CS at HT from 4.5 down to 2.0. (very late) goal scored. Trade won
Dordrecht v Sparta - Laid HT draw. Half my stake matched. Trade won
Le Havre v Nancy - Laid winning team at HT. Trade lost
Jong AZ v Den Bosch - Drip laid CS at HT from 3.5 down to 2. Trade lostFrustrating day today. Minus 1.3pts. None of these trades looked like particularly bad trades, even with the benefit of hindsight, and on another day the results couldve been completely different. I think maybe im doing too many trades, will try to reduce the number and go for improved selections only. My first half stuff is strong as its a lot less about reading the game so will focus a bit more there. I guess ive always thought i needed lots of strategies but i dont think thats the case
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@lee-woodman good idea, I hope this works for you.
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14.2.19
El Daklyeh v El Gounah - Layed FH O1.5 for 1 pt liability. 1-2 at HT. Trade lost
El Masry v Misr Lel Makasa - Layed FH O1.5 for 1pt liability. 1-0 HT. Trade won
Um Salal v Al Gharafa - Layed CS at HT (drip layed). Partly matched, average odds of 3.5 for 0.4pt profit. Trade Won
Al Rayyan v Al Arabi - Layed HT draw just after KO for 1pt liability. Also had a lay on HT 0-0 at 1.8 but this didnt match before the first goal was scored. 2-0 at HT. Trade Won+0.6pts for today. Not trading anything else today
