Football - Outright Markets Trading Thread
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@james-h 100%!!!
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This is interesting me I think there is potential for making some decent profit on these markets
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@ryan-carruthers Up the Imps!
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@james-higgin Yes!!!
Lincoln is my city too, the buzz in this city around them right now is literally off the charts its not been like this ever!
They get a lot of support.
Agree on the gut, but backing that up with stats is a recipe for success!
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Currently in League Two...
1st. Lincoln - Played 27, Pts 55
2nd.Bury - Played 29, Pts 52Lincoln play the first of their two games in hand tonight, away at Yeovil (20th). Yeovil have won only 2/14 (14%) of their home games this season, although they did win their last home game against Notts County.
Lincoln have won 7/13 (54%) of the away games, and they are currently 2.24 to win tonight.
I'll back Lincoln in the 'Winner 2018/19' category (i.e. to win the league). A win will definitely shorten the odds, allowing a quick cash out at full-time, and a draw may even have the same effect as it will put Lincoln a further point clear.
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@ryan-carruthers yeah I get the impression that it's usually a market where people just use their 'gut feeling', which says to me there might be an angle if we approached it statistically.
There's a good amount of money matched on a lot of the outrights (e.g. 550k on the League One winner) so it should be possible to get some decent amounts of money through.
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I love this, I usually go through the season doing this on the top scorer market, winner and relegated market.
Never put much science behind it like this though - more looking at the form of teams and then comparing to their fixtures i.e. Burnley a few seasons ago not won a game away for toffee so back them for relegation they lost 3/4 games away in a row - some reason had a few away games on the trot.
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I'll start with something I'm finding useful - a bloke on Twitter who goes by the name of Chuffy McVasov (https://twitter.com/chuffymcvasov).
Once a week he posts prediction tables for the EPL, Championship, League One and League Two. He shows fairly clear tables about each team's likelihood of promotion, relegation, and finishing in European places. Could be a good start for anyone interested.
His method is listed here: https://chuffymcvasov.wordpress.com/2018/04/26/the-journey-begins/ . He basically uses a Poisson model (with a small adjustment to remove draw bias) to simulate the results of upcoming matches 1000 times. He then uses these to find the most likely number of points that a team will gain, and hence the probability of them finishing in each league position. Without going into much more detail, the maths seems pretty spot-on to me and a really useful intro to the English outrights.
