Potential Test

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Hi all and @Martin-Futter , @Ryan-Carruthers

I was thinking of applying a filter (have asked Adam for some guidance) in where the home team takes the lead at least 65% of the time, and the away team concedes at least 65% of the time.

It's obviously not a ground breaking idea, backing probable favourites should they start the game well, and trading out when they take the lead but before I press ahead has anyone on BTC already done this in the past and beared any fruit?

Also, to the regular stat users, is 65% a fair rate for both the home (scoring) and away (conceding) team? Would you imagine this not produce many games for instance? Thanks

Ryan

@rupen-shah Nope, to be honest I wouldn't want to either the data could be very much distorted on that level due to changing on managers, players, situations etc... motivations.

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@ryan-carruthers Ryan, is there a filter on the software which allows you to go back 30 -50 games or is this based on tracking your trades? Thanks

Ryan

@mark no worries, here to help and chew the fat on anything matey. More we chat and work through things together the better we shall all be ey?

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@ryan-carruthers said in Potential Test:

You could look to add which half has the most goals and on average what time the Home team score and Away concede just to add a little bit more data on the teams.

Just thinking out-loud - then after say 30-50 games you'd have data to compare to what time the goals actually came and could work from there on average entry times

For example if the data source is saying 20 mins first goal are actually scored - then you can look to enter @ 15 mins getting a better price and also seeing how the game starts.

Thanks @Ryan-Carruthers Really appreciate you taking the time to reply. I’ll be looking into your suggestions. Thanks mate

Ryan

You could look to add which half has the most goals and on average what time the Home team score and Away concede just to add a little bit more data on the teams.

Just thinking out-loud - then after say 30-50 games you'd have data to compare to what time the goals actually came and could work from there on average entry times

For example if the data source is saying 20 mins first goal are actually scored - then you can look to enter @ 15 mins getting a better price and also seeing how the game starts.

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Okay chaps, here's my filter. Very basic, but I'm hoping it will be a straightforward one for me!

I plan to test this over a few months. Limited games, so I'm hoping it plucks quality from quantity. This commenced on Friday and here's a brief view of whats happened so far;

Any ideas or advice on how I could improve/advance this would be welcomed. Thanks

Martin

@mark the best way to find if a filter gets many games is check Friday night and see how many weekend picks there are (although winter break makes things quiet atm!)

Ryan

Yes, I go around 70/70 with some other bits, I aim for teams where I perceive them to be value.

One thing here might be worth looking into would be laying the away team - if the data covers it, because might have a few games at 0-0 HT when you've backed the home team to score first would be needing a goal pretty soon in the SH where if you've got a lay on the Away team you would be OK at this point. Of course this is odds and stats dependant - don't want to be laying at high odds Interesting to see what this will go like.

We have something coming very soon which will help with the tracking of this

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hi mark......i think there is something similar on one of the videos on the site that ryan has done......i'm following something similar but with lower percentages..

good luck with it tho mate...be interesting to hear how it goes.....