Political Trading Thread

John Folan

Next up we have Trump and the Labour leadership elections.

Trump. The senate will not pass the impeachment and he will run. Will he win? Probably yes. If the same extreme is taken by the Labour Party(Democrats) in America. Twitter is now pretty much a left wing shouting platform. The following picture whilst a bit of a joke is probably pretty accurate.

The left cannot understand why they lost on Thursday as they were the loudest voices on platforms like this. Well the simple answer is 'conservatives' don't use it as much(It's in the name). So a skewed view is given. This is good for us as it will affect the odds a bit. Actually get out and talk to people, preferably outside your usual circle. I'm quite lucky, the last few weeks I took my taxi out for this purpose alone, I literally kept the licence to stop me going stir crazy indoors. I had everyone in the car from the single person on benefits up to and including ex mayors and company CEO's. That was my crystal ball :).

How to take advantage? Trump will probably drift a bit as the impeachment drags on so some one tick scalping is the order of the day. I've got my eyes on the democrat candidates as there are some tasty odds there. Will wait until the campaigning starts now though. Speeches move markets. That's when the fun really starts.

Labour. They have a big problem called Momentum. If anyone watched GMB yesterday and it's so worth it just to watch Iain Dale and Susanne Reid's reactions while this was going on. The young lady who was screaming about the policies being popular having a row with two other ladies, one of whom was Jacquie Smith who I quite like. She talks a lot of sense. The young lady(quite fit but would get on my nerves) was not listening, then later on Corbyn WHO HAS NOT RESIGNED spouted the same lines. They do not see the problem and will want to eventually replace Corbyn with a clone. There will be a war in the Labour Party over the next leader. Keir Starmer does not stand a chance, he is so centrist I actually though he was a Tory at first. Momentum and the Unions will not want him, they have an agenda and despite being rejected by the country they are going to continue. Corbyn, Momentum and the ridiculous stance on Brexit is why they lost this election and they have not learned anything!!! I am going to watch the fallout for a few days, maybe even weeks while I research the candidates, but this market will be a goldmine.

Some people won't like this, but it will make you money.

Ryan

@john-folan You played a blinder!

John Folan

Tory Majority Boom
Tory Plus 340 Seats Boom
Labour Sub 220 Seats Boom

Icing on the cake from the fun bet
Swinson to lose her seat Boom

Right about everything. Where's that microphone? I need to drop it...

Ryan

@will-b Very very true, the politics markets are quite good in that manner Well played matey, it's been great to make some money on these.

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@ryan-carruthers yep thanks to everyone for sharing their pre election trading ideas and special mention to @John-Folan and his crystal ball!

I do most of my trading on football (hoping to share strategies in the future once I have more confidence in them) but the thing I love about political trading is how slow the markets can be to react. It feels like you get the time to think carefully about trades. A good 10 minutes after the exit pole was announced last night I entered a few brexit markets figuring the likelihood of it not happening on 31 Jan must now be remote. The odds were pretty low but by the time I got up this morning they had halved so I removed liability. It you wait 10 minutes on sports markets you'll have missed the opportunity by 9 minutes and 59 seconds!

Ryan

Apart from all the different believes and everybody who I bump into asking me how I voted, the election was great from a trading POV!

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@john-folan thanks John well based on this I guess its a no brainer to have a little bet on a conservative majority at 1.53 odds.

53% return on the investment cant be knocked if everything is saying a conservative majority and its just deciding how big the majority is going to be.

John Folan

Kantar had the Conservatives unchanged on 44%, and Labour unchanged on 32%, suggesting a healthy Conservative majority, if replicated today.

Deltapoll had the Conservatives up 1 point on 45% and Labour up 2 points on 35%; the Labour improvement is not enough to deny the Conservatives a majority if replicated today.

Survation's final poll has the Conservatives on 4% and Labour up 3 points to 34%. Here we see Labour picking up gains once more, but not enough to trouble the Conservative majority.

Putting all the polls together, Politico's Poll of Polls shows Conservatives ending the campaign with 43% vote share and Labour on 34%, a nine point advantage to the Conservatives.

This would be consistent with a Conservative majority.

John Folan

@gary-brown said in Political Trading Thread:

what do you think will happen guys?
A small majority for the Tories I think.
Basically not much different to what it is now I think.

I haven't traded the markets for this though just a gut feeling.

I still think a decent Tory majority. People who vote Tory generally don’t talk to pollsters

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what do you think will happen guys?
A small majority for the Tories I think.
Basically not much different to what it is now I think.

I haven't traded the markets for this though just a gut feeling.

John Folan

There is a story doing the rounds that labour have done very poorly in the postal votes. Cancelled my hung parliament for scratch and having another bite at various Tory totals also a straight lay of labour under 218.5.

Tomorrow night will be utter carnage. Whatever happens

Martin

@john-folan can't believe it has come around so quick, will be interesting on the hung parliament if they open up some more betting markets post election.

John Folan

Not a fun bet but worth a back of a hunt Parliament or a lay of the Tory majority. Both moving in the opposite direction they have been. Going to be an interesting day tomorrow.

John Folan

FIRST FUN BET(s)

Lay each party leader in their own seat
Corbyn currently 1.04
Johnson currently 1.24(interesting)
Swinson currently 1.59(even more interesting)

John Folan

@ryan-carruthers said in Political Trading Thread:

@john-folan Makes perfect sense doesn't it.

It does. Looking forward to Thursday now. Haven’t found any fun election bets yet.

Ryan

@john-folan Makes perfect sense doesn't it.

John Folan

@ryan-carruthers said in Political Trading Thread:

I'm looking at a back on Bloomberg for next USA President and I'll tell you for why, he has more access to data and data scientists than anybody at present and this is one of the reasons Trump won before he had more social media ads and tested them and more data than any other president ever - now Bloomberg is following this route, not only that he has a track record - they changed the system in NY so he could be mayor again one more time which is very interesting.

Price is currently 19.5 as well.

I’m having some of that

Ryan

I'm looking at a back on Bloomberg for next USA President and I'll tell you for why, he has more access to data and data scientists than anybody at present and this is one of the reasons Trump won before he had more social media ads and tested them and more data than any other president ever - now Bloomberg is following this route, not only that he has a track record - they changed the system in NY so he could be mayor again one more time which is very interesting.

Price is currently 19.5 as well.

John Folan

Out of the sub 230 Dutch as the guaranteed profit was just too much to turn down. I am now completely clear and have paid for next years summer holiday.

Fun bets to follow over the next couple of days. These will be speculation only so will be nice if they come off as they will be longer odds. Might pay for a Christmas meal or a few drinks.

John Folan

@ryan-carruthers said in Political Trading Thread:

@john-folan I agree, most times presidents get a second term as well.

I think you have a good point as well with trading what you want to happen instead of what will likely happen, I think this is highlighted more in a charged topic like politics.

It really is. I also found that happened a lot with my football trades, but you do notice it more here. Wait till next year, if you think it's bad now. Trump is screamed about by the left as he is everything they hate. He obviously isn't that unpalatable to the centre and the right or he wouldn't be president now. Politically biased people cannot trade politics. People think I may sit on the right but I am more anti-moron than anything. Iv'e called the last two elections, Brexit and trump right.

I'm pretty sure Labour are in for a very tough night Thursday. Be a lot different if someone like David Miliband was in charge of them. He would pull a large number of Tory Centrists over like Blair did. Who apart from Iraq, wasn't a terrible Prime Minister. Been a lot better than what followed him anyway. I think Boris is a one nation Tory who is more center than right . He will tone down the right wing stance a lot if he gets a good majority and get cracking like he did as mayor. The country needs Brexit resolving one way or the other and he is ready to at least get us 'out' pretty sharpish. That will appeal to a hell of a lot of people who just want a bit of certainty so they can get on with things like expanding business or even buying a home.