CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...
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Nothing from me for a few days guys, we welcome the latest addition to the family home today (little boy) so I’ll have my hands full!
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Trading Plan/WatchList - 14/12/18
No time for a detailed write up today but will be looking at these games for goals:
Willem v Den Haag
Charleroi v GentWill be looking to trade this game in the second half if the score is 0-0 or 0-1/1-0:
Sheffield United v West Brom
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@chris-watts very well played sir!
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Inplay - LTD/LCS Celtic v Salzburg. I’ll be dripping some stakes into the market. 0.5 points x 4 over the next 20 mins or so.
Goal - green up!
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Inplay - LTD/LCS Celtic v Salzburg. I’ll be dripping some stakes into the market. 0.5 points x 4 over the next 20 mins or so.
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@chris-watts yeah I think Shaktar Vs Lyon is the only game with qualification riding on it. Will be other permutations like Europa league qual I’ve not looked into yet though.
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@chris-watts A good trade gone bad.
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Watch List/Trading Plan 12/12/18
Nothing again today, will be on the lookout for inplay opportunities in the champions league games. Need to be a bit cautious however, don't trade into dead rubbers.
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Results 11/12/18
- Minus1 point on the inplay Liverpool trade - it looked for all the world that the game would have a few more goals in it. Sadio Mane missed three sitters and a good save from Alisson at the end but no dice and a 1 point loss. I'm happy enough with this trade though, quarter points dripped into the overs market in a lively game will pay off more often than not and with average odds of over evens its a long term solid play.
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Inplay - getting very bullish on over 2.5 in the Liverpool game. Available at evens currently (1-0). Will be starting to build a position now.
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Trading Plan/Watch List - 11/12/18
Nothing from me today, will be watching the Champions League and looking for inplay opportunities.
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Results - 10/12/18
Everton v Watford
The game didn't pan out as the research suggested but watching the game did throw up several great trading opportunities.
I was expecting a low scoring type of match but both teams started well and the there was pretty reasonable pace to the game. My first move was to LTD in the half time market for 2 points liability at 2.40. The pre game research suggested 1.27 goals averaged in H1 and that coupled with the action was enough for me to get involved. Everton scored around 15 mins in I greened up immediately this time.....not repeating the mistake from the Man U match on Dec 5th! at this point I've got 1.3 points profit locked in.
Watford started to get the upper hand just before halftime but I didn't really fancy anything the market was offering, the prices looked about fair so I waited to see how it developed. I got more interested when Deulofeu came on, this guys got some talent and plays direct, attacking every time he gets the ball. It was a good sign from Watford that they were going to have a crack at it by bringing off Ken Sema whose stats were woeful. At about this time Sky flashed up a graphic showing that the last 10mins had only seen the ball in the Watford final third 1% of the time. From memory the stat for the Everton final third was around 52% with the other 47% in the middle of the pitch. A clear confirming signal that Watford were getting on top.
At this point i'm laying Everton and backing over 2.5. I get on over 2.5 at a touch more than evens for 2 points liability, I lay Everton at around 1.5 for 1.5 points liability. I'm aggressive with the Everton lay in terms of staking because I have the overs as insurance. The match odds dont decay as quickly as the goal markets so you can let them ride a bit longer and if nothing happens still get some reasonable percentage of your liability out.
A few mins later a freak own goal puts me in a great position. I green out the match odds first for 1.35 points profit. I'm now sitting on 2.65 points profit and a potential 1 point profit in the overs market. Low and behold Watford score again almost immediately! fantastic! Overs now locked in for the full 2 points profit. I'm now at 4.65 points profit.
But im not finished yet! Everton respond to going behind and on comes lookman and calvert lewin - another confirming signal that they are now going to have a proper go at trying to get something from the game. Before I've made up my mind on what to do next they get a penalty...I'm thinking that I've probably missed the boat and should have been more decisive! then Sigurdsson misses! unbelievable!
Queue the onslaught from Everton! knowing that 17% if the combined goals come in the last 10 mins or so and matching that up to the play I recycle 1 point profit into the over 3.5 market at 4.7 and lay Watford at 1.51 for 1 point liability.
The goal doesnt come, a string of chances are missed. I'm delighted to see 6mins injury time added to the game. At this point i'm thinking I may have overplayed my hand a bit....and then the Everton get a free kick on the edge of the box. Richarlison, Sigurdsson and Digne are standing over it...I'm shouting at the television for Sigurdsson to take it! Richarlison steps away, that's good...come on Digne do the decent thing and move aside, he doesnt... but instead he does curl it straight into the top corner! perfect!
The over 3.5 market comes in for another 3.4 points profit and the match odds now stands 3.35 points. Add that to the 2 points from over 2.5 and the 1.3 points from the first half for a total of 10.05 points.
I also got involved in a Turkish game earlier in the evening - shouted out an inplay on Kasimpassa and Kayserispor. This game had come up on my filters in a few different ways but I didnt think I would be home in time to trade it. Kayserispor (the away underdog) took the lead around the twenty minute mark. This was set up perfectly for a lay the away team and back the home team trade. I entered the market for a 2 point liability lay of Kayserispor and a 0.5 point back of Kasimpassa. Despite dominating and missing two penalties Kasimpassa somehow managed to lose 0-3! a -2.5 point loss.
Overall Result +7.55 points
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@chris-watts I had half a point each risked on the lay and back and also drip backed the next overs market as insurance as it hit both my “home favourite” and “second half goal” filters. Only got 1 of 3 of my back bet matched on the overs, but took the sting off a bit. Just over half a point lost.
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Inplay - laying Kayserispor (2 points) and backing Kasimpassa (0.5 points)
Well that went well!! Kasimpassa miss a penalty and then go 0-2 down! Unbelievable!
I let this run and to add salt to the wound they got a third!!
Result -2.5 points.
They missed two penalties when it was 0-1
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Inplay - laying Kayserispor (2 points) and backing Kasimpassa (0.5 points)
Well that went well!! Kasimpassa miss a penalty and then go 0-2 down! Unbelievable!
I let this run and to add salt to the wound they got a third!!
Result -2.5 points.
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This post is deleted!
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@simon did you trade it the same way Simon?
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@chris-watts hit my filters too
On this! -
Inplay - laying Kayserispor (2 points) and backing Kasimpassa (0.5 points)
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Watch List/Trading Plan 10/12/18:
Not a lot on today but will have a look at the televised game between Everton and Watford. Here are my thoughts.
Firstly not expecting this to be a goal fest, the two average 2.4 goals when playing against similar opposition type this season. 1.27 goals averaged in H1 and 1.13 in H2. 34 minutes is the average time of first goal across the 15 or so games this season. Reasonably low percentages of overs and BTTS too at 33% and 53% respectively.
What does interest me here is a play at halftime, 33% of their games go into the break at 0-0 but 0% finish 0-0 so far this season. This gives way to LTD,LCS or backing overs at halftime and looking to trade from there, if you build your position from 45-60 mins then you should be in good shape for any late goals, also if the game is flat the liability won’t be too much either and you can trade out and manage your position – please see video from @Martin-Futter on how to do that if you are unsure.
Goal times seem to be anchored around the final ten minutes of each half, 19% for H1 and 17% for H2. Keep an eye on the action and look for opportunities to get cheap lays in for the final ten minutes if the score is level or there’s only one goal in it with the losing side pushing for the equalizer.
Under 3.5 is currently trading at 1.43, I have it nearer 1.33 so another potential play here is to scalp that down if the game starts slowly or to back it after early goals safe in the knowledge that very few of their games will likely end up over 3.5.
This is a typical example of a game that needs to be watched to discern the right approach, nothing really jumps out as a must have play from the stats
