CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...
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Hi Chris i like this and will be a keen follower of your page.
Like how you are explaining your thought process as well and I am looking forward to reading your posts, -
Fancy wolves to do ok tonight. There perhaps a few games ahead of Torino in terms of being into the swing of things. I dont think the game v united would’ve taken much out of them this early. I like their price at 3.5 or better. Will be looking for a good lay entry point on Torino if wolves start well.
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Struggling to access the stats software today (error loading fixtures, error loading highlights, error loading KPIs). Will try to post my thoughts up if I can get in later.
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Yesterdays published trades and their results are below in the thread. Here are the trades I took on that I didn't get chance to share prior to entering the market:
Football:
Man U v Wolves - I love a televised game for trading, the liquidity is great, information is plentiful and its usually involving teams and leagues where my knowledge is strong. Because of this I tend to not rely on the pregame stats as much. I do research them, I always want an idea of what is statistically likely to happen but its fair to say I downgrade the percentages or at least revise them in my mind to fit with my interpretation of the game as it plays out.
The trades:
Layed Wolves in the match odds market for one point stake following United making a decent start. Original plan was to ride it out for 20mins or so and look to take 0.25 points profit. United scored just before I reached that and I greened it up for 0.65 points instead. Nice when it happens. The second half starts and it appears Wolves are re-energized. took a minute or two deciding between recycling profit from the match odds or looking at other markets. Opted for dripping 1.5 points stake on BTTS at average odds of 2.22 and 2 points on over 2.5 at 3.36. My plan was to let the BTTS ride to the end but either add to or start scalping the 2.5 market depending on the action. If the action was good but no goal was forthcoming I would hold or add if the game died I would scalp. The goal arrived, what a goal too! Neves is some player. BTTS lands for +1.79 points and I green out the overs for 1.47 points. As the game goes on I recycle a bit of the overs profit and place 0.47 points back onto over 2.5. That didn't materialize but I still bank 1 point profit.
Total + 3.44 points.
Tennis:
My tennis trading is pretty much always scalping momentum. I use the BTC stats and Tennis Insight for research but mostly I watch and try to pick up on momentum changes between the players then back and lay accordingly. I work in phases so if I back a player and their odds start to come in to a point where even if they go on and break or hold there odds wont move much more ill green/red out accordingly. Tennis can be a long game so for me personally its about having the discipline to get in and out over and over again and not worrying too much about leaving profit on the table or waiting to see if things turn round. I'm probably guilty of being a touch overactive in the tennis markets but it works for me.
The trades:
Ficovich v M Cuevas - Back Cuevas at 2.08 - lay at 1.72 for +0.26 points.
Taberner v Gimeno Traver - Back Taberner at 1.34 then back Gimeno at 8.30 for +0.28 points
Zhang v Petkovic - 10 entries for this game so wont list them all but + 0.28 points
Zhu v Putintseva - 9 entries for this game so wont list them all but +0.37 pointsTotal Profit + 1.2 points
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Ok its time for me to stop being lazy and start maintaining this thread again! Here's today's watch list:
KR Reykjavik v Vikingur Reykjavik:
Expected goals at 3.47 looks promising, more so because 2.53 are slated for the second half. Average first goal time is circa 35mins. This one on paper could be the proverbial goal fest. As such some variant of @Ryan-Carruthers split stake strategy will probably be the way to go. Ill be looking to build positions in the over’s markets from 25mins providing there’s less than 3 goals already scored. BTTS could be attractive too if you can get in at evens or greater. Would want to see Tobias Thomsen play for the home side.
Result - bit of a damp squib in the end, fortunately the only goal came not long after my first entry point. Unfortunately I was back in during the second half and when I finally accepted that overs was the wrong call I managed to scalp back a fair amount of my liability. Minus 0.3 points.
Sarpsborg v Bodo Glimt:
Another high scoring game in the offing here, goals expected to be more evenly distributed through both halves. Again, I like BTTS at evens or greater. Average time for first goal is circa 29mins. Would want at least one of Amor Layouni or Hakon Evjen on the pitch for Bodo.
Result - BTTS at 2.42 average odds for plus 1.42 points.
Breidablik v Valur:
Goals again the play, and slightly slanted towards H2. Will play this one the same as the Reykjavik game. Would want to see Thomas Mikkelsen play.
Result - plenty of action but no trade for me. Couldn’t get comfortable with an entry point.
Scalping:
Will also be on the lookout for scalping opportunities on the unders side in the Elfsborg v Osterunds game. Scalping both 2.5 & 3.5 either after goals or in slow periods of play.
Result - no trade again following a strong start from the home team. Probably just as well as they scored 3 in quick succession.
Overall result + 1.12 points. A steady if unspectacular evenings work.
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Ok its time for me to stop being lazy and start maintaining this thread again! Here's today's watch list:
KR Reykjavik v Vikingur Reykjavik:
Expected goals at 3.47 looks promising, more so because 2.53 are slated for the second half. Average first goal time is circa 35mins. This one on paper could be the proverbial goal fest. As such some variant of @Ryan-Carruthers split stake strategy will probably be the way to go. Ill be looking to build positions in the over’s markets from 25mins providing there’s less than 3 goals already scored. BTTS could be attractive too if you can get in at evens or greater. Would want to see Tobias Thomsen play for the home side.
Sarpsborg v Bodo Glimt:
Another high scoring game in the offing here, goals expected to be more evenly distributed through both halves. Again, I like BTTS at evens or greater. Average time for first goal is circa 29mins. Would want at least one of Amor Layouni or Hakon Evjen on the pitch for Bodo.
Breidablik v Valur:
Goals again the play, and slightly slanted towards H2. Will play this one the same as the Reykjavik game. Would want to see Thomas Mikkelsen play for Breidablik.
Scalping:
Will also be on the lookout for scalping opportunities on the unders side in the Elfsborg v Osterunds game. Scalping both 2.5 & 3.5 either after goals or in slow periods of play.
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@chris-watts Lovely that!!
I had this on my list as well what time you get in? -
@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Inplay- backing spurs at 2.78.
Nice winner that! +2.3 points.
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Inplay- backing spurs at 2.78.
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
In play - backing Leeds, laying the draw for combined 5 point liability.
Greened up for +1.2 points after the Leeds goal.
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In play - backing Leeds, laying the draw for combined 5 point liability.
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@chris-watts Looking forward to have you back my friend!
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A fairly quiet summer for me on the posting front, my trading for other sports is predominantly based on scalping so its hard to share. But now the football is back in full swing ill start to contribute again.
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Looks like a good day for scalping unders in the French games to me. Troyes, Caen and Nice games all look good shouts to go unders. Ill be watching and nipping in and out of the 2.5 & 3.5 markets.
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@chris-watts cracking stuff here matey!
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Trading Plan/Watch List 26/04/19
Looks like a good day for potential goals, here are my picks for trading overs:
Sparta Rotterdam v Jong Ajax
Augsburg v Leverkusen
Nijmegen v Twente
Almere v Jong PSVUnders Scalping:
Rio Ave v FC Porto
Full house on the overs and a great scalping opportunity currently in Porto!
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Trading Plan/Watch List 26/04/19
Looks like a good day for potential goals, here are my picks for trading overs:
Sparta Rotterdam v Jong Ajax
Augsburg v Leverkusen
Nijmegen v Twente
Almere v Jong PSVUnders Scalping:
Rio Ave v FC Porto
Decent first half that!
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Trading Plan/Watch List 26/04/19
Looks like a good day for potential goals, here are my picks for trading overs:
Sparta Rotterdam v Jong Ajax
Augsburg v Leverkusen
Nijmegen v Twente
Almere v Jong PSVUnders Scalping:
Rio Ave v FC Porto
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Trading Plan/Watch List 25/04/19
With no selections on the LTD system today thought I'd share my watch list instead.
Willem v PSV – expected goals 3.78, 2.17 in the second half. Strong possibilities of over 2.5 and BTTS. Will monitor game for action and take a position at halftime if 0-0,0-1 or 1-0. Average time for first goal 27 minutes.
Den Haag v Excelsior – expected goals 3.5, 1.8 in the second half. Medium possibility for over 2.5 and BTTS. Will monitor the game for action and assess trade possibility for second half.
Djurgarden v Norrkoping – Unders scalping. Expected goals 2.3. Current price is trading at 2.06 I have it nearer 1.54.
@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Trading Plan/Watch List 25/04/19
With no selections on the LTD system today thought I'd share my watch list instead.
Willem v PSV – expected goals 3.78, 2.17 in the second half. Strong possibilities of over 2.5 and BTTS. Will monitor game for action and take a position at halftime if 0-0,0-1 or 1-0. Average time for first goal 27 minutes.
Den Haag v Excelsior – expected goals 3.5, 1.8 in the second half. Medium possibility for over 2.5 and BTTS. Will monitor the game for action and assess trade possibility for second half.
Djurgarden v Norrkoping – Unders scalping. Expected goals 2.3. Current price is trading at 2.06 I have it nearer 1.54.
No trade in the two Dutch games as the goals came too early for me. +2 points scalping in Sweden though. Not bad for a quiet night.
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Trading Plan/Watch List 25/04/19
With no selections on the LTD system today thought I'd share my watch list instead.
Willem v PSV – expected goals 3.78, 2.17 in the second half. Strong possibilities of over 2.5 and BTTS. Will monitor game for action and take a position at halftime if 0-0,0-1 or 1-0. Average time for first goal 27 minutes.
Den Haag v Excelsior – expected goals 3.5, 1.8 in the second half. Medium possibility for over 2.5 and BTTS. Will monitor the game for action and assess trade possibility for second half.
Djurgarden v Norrkoping – Unders scalping. Expected goals 2.3. Current price is trading at 2.06 I have it nearer 1.54.
