CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...
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@ryan-carruthers said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
I did the whole day trading on the horses for years and football and then also tennis, I scaled it back when I looked through what I was making the most profit on. I stopped the horses, in the last few weeks though my interest has been sparked back on them, I prefer to be in play with the horses and find ones to back to lay or lay to back - I'll be sharing my selections on the thread too, like @Martin-Futter says what @John-Folan and also @Richard-lillis are doing on the horse thread is pretty good!
Don't listen to me for gods sake
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@chris-watts Yep that Flamengo game might be a good one!
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Watch List/Trading Plan – 15/11/18
Unders Scalping:
Brazil, Serie A 19:00 – Chapecoense SC v Botafogo RJ
Another foray into Brazil tonight, at least this one is at a more palatable hour! These two teams hit my filters for low percentages of goals scored over the last 20 games against similar opposition type. 60% for under 2.5 and averaging less than 1.5 goals apiece when playing home and away respectively. I have unders at around 1.48 and its currently trading at 1.59. Will monitor for activity and look to get in and out of both 2.5 and 3.5 if the action supports. Will restrict this to the first half only as a higher concentration of what goals they do score seems to come in H2 (71%).
Could also keep an eye on this for LTD/LCS in second half depending on the play.FHG/HT LTD
Brazil, Serie A 19:00 – Flamengo RJ v Santos
Like @Ryan-Carruthers this one actually hits a couple of my different filters both for potential FHG’s and averaging 1.77 goals in H2. Nearly one third of their combined goals this season against similar opposition type come between the 30-60th minutes. Ill be watching this one and assessing how to enter around these times if the match has enough action to justify.
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Results 14/11/18
FHG’s:
Parana v Atletico MG (Brazil, Serie A – 23:00pm)
Hits my filters for having 40% of the last 5 matches against similar opposition having over 1.5 FHG’s. Broadening that out to all games there’s a combined 80% chance of a first half goal representing fair odds of 1.25. Average goal time 14 minutes against similar opposition and 36 minutes in all games. One to watch out for and look to build a position around over 0.5 in the first half if play supports.
For some reason this didnt go inplay on Betfair - I got a small stake on through the bookies at 1.57 (B365). +0.14 points profit following a 15th minute penalty.
Home Favs/Away Lays:
Palmerias v Fluminese (Brazil, Serie A – 23:45pm)
Palmerias are top of the league against mid table side Fluminese, the stats show 100% scoring first for the home team (will need to verify that before getting involved). I like to watch these types of games and look for opportunities to get with the home side if there behind early or if its 0-0 in the second half. Will probably look to back home team and lay the draw depending on how the game is going. The LTD gives a bit of insurance or risk mitigation against the spurious penalty or goal from a corner etc against the run of play etc.
A comfortable 3-0 win for the home side and no trade for me, odds never got to where I would have liked to enter.
Under 3.5 Scalping:
Cruzeiro v Corinthians (Brazil, Serie A – 23:45pm)
Low percentages of overs recorded, the away team average less than a goal a game away from home. Under 2.5 at 70% and under 3.5 at 80%. Current odds are 1.21 for under 3.5 which is pretty much bang on in my book. I’ll be looking to scalp under 3.5 (not 2.5) after early goals in this one. If no goals, then no trade as no value.
No trade - I was too tired to be scalping. Game finished 1-0 so unders would have come in.
Overall +0.14 points for the day (also made +2.4 points following @Simon on the tennis trade between Cillic and Isner).
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Watch List/Trading Plan: 14/11/18
FHG’s:
Parana v Atletico MG (Brazil, Serie A – 23:00pm)
Hits my filters for having 40% of the last 5 matches against similar opposition having over 1.5 FHG’s. Broadening that out to all games there’s a combined 80% chance of a first half goal representing fair odds of 1.25. Average goal time 14 minutes against similar opposition and 36 minutes in all games. One to watch out for and look to build a position around over 0.5 in the first half if play supports.
Home Favs/Away Lays:
Palmerias v Fluminese (Brazil, Serie A – 23:45pm)
Palmerias are top of the league against mid table side Fluminese, the stats show 100% scoring first for the home team (will need to verify that before getting involved). I like to watch these types of games and look for opportunities to get with the home side if there behind early or if its 0-0 in the second half. Will probably look to back home team and lay the draw depending on how the game is going. The LTD gives a bit of insurance or risk mitigation against the spurious penalty or goal from a corner etc against the run of play etc.
Under 3.5 Scalping:
Cruzeiro v Corinthians (Brazil, Serie A – 23:45pm)
Low percentages of overs recorded, the away team average less than a goal a game away from home. Under 2.5 at 70% and under 3.5 at 80%. Current odds are 1.21 for under 3.5 which is pretty much bang on in my book. I’ll be looking to scalp under 3.5 (not 2.5) after early goals in this one. If no goals, then no trade as no value.
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Watch List/Trading Plan 13/11/18:
Nothing from me today.
I hate international breaks! Will spend some time reading through the other sport threads, particularly the horses, tennis and cricket.
I've become hugely interested in trading horses over the last few months. I'm not currently very good at it. Recently I sat down and started to map out a potential path to full time trading and it seemed logical to me that balancing trading time and family life would be easier if horses featured somewhere in my trading armory. Having a "day" sport to trade as a supplement to football seems like a good idea! I guess time will tell!
when you say not good at it, in what sense? what types of trades are you employing? If you share an example horse trade we may be able to help in the same way you have helped with my football trading.
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I did the whole day trading on the horses for years and football and then also tennis, I scaled it back when I looked through what I was making the most profit on. I stopped the horses, in the last few weeks though my interest has been sparked back on them, I prefer to be in play with the horses and find ones to back to lay or lay to back - I'll be sharing my selections on the thread too, like @Martin-Futter says what @John-Folan and also @Richard-lillis are doing on the horse thread is pretty good!
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Watch List/Trading Plan 13/11/18:
Nothing from me today.
I hate international breaks! Will spend some time reading through the other sport threads, particularly the horses, tennis and cricket.
I've become hugely interested in trading horses over the last few months. I'm not currently very good at it. Recently I sat down and started to map out a potential path to full time trading and it seemed logical to me that balancing trading time and family life would be easier if horses featured somewhere in my trading armory. Having a "day" sport to trade as a supplement to football seems like a good idea! I guess time will tell!
agree horses are good for day trading, worth a look (i'm sure you are already) at some of @John-Folan s work on it! tennis and cricket can also be good as they are on during the day a lot of the time (can also be on at anytime though across the world)
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@chris-watts I was trying to back Viborg if they went under. Can still not understand that odds.
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@chris-watts Incredible results my friend!
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Watch List/Trading Plan 13/11/18:
Nothing from me today.
I hate international breaks! Will spend some time reading through the other sport threads, particularly the horses, tennis and cricket.
I've become hugely interested in trading horses over the last few months. I'm not currently very good at it. Recently I sat down and started to map out a potential path to full time trading and it seemed logical to me that balancing trading time and family life would be easier if horses featured somewhere in my trading armory. Having a "day" sport to trade as a supplement to football seems like a good idea! I guess time will tell!
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Results 12/11/18
Unders Scalping:
Dep Capiata v Deportivo Santani (Paraguay Primera Division – 20:45pm)
Ultimately I left this game alone, it felt a bit too much like scraping the barrel. No trade. It did however finish 0-2.
HT LTD:
Helsingor v Viborg (Denmark 1st Division – 17:30)
No trade here either with the away side 0-2 up in 20 minutes. On reflection there was probably a case to be made for looking to side with the away team given the stats, form and league position. The away odds did surprise me when I first looked at it and I couldn't find a reason for why they were not shorter, that should have been a signal to trade around the away team winning but for some reason it put me off instead. They ran out comfortable 1-3 winners.
Nothing lost so happy to move on.
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@frode-lia thanks Frode!
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@chris-watts Well done
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Watch List/Trading Plan – 12/11/18
Unders Scalping:
Dep Capiata v Deportivo Santani (Paraguay Primera Division – 20:45pm)
The one game that hits my filters today for scalping, obviously it’s in a poor league and liquidity could be an issue but I’ll keep an eye on it and if there’s opportunity to nip in and take a few ticks I will. The stats show a 41% likelihood of 0-0 at halftime with only 39% of goals coming in H1 overall. Unders are showing at 66% representing fair odds of 1.53. The market (what little of it there is) is currently trading at 1.81. Average time of first goal is 41 minutes.
HT LTD:
Helsingor v Viborg (Denmark 1st Division – 17:30)
Top plays bottom here, surprised to see Viborg trading at 2.8 in the match odds given their top of the league and Helsingor are bottom. Home and away form for each looks ok. The stats show a 20% chance of 0-0 at halftime but 0% at full time. Overs comes in at 67% and goal times are fairly evenly distributed in both halves. Averaging 3 goals a game and averaging 2 in the second half this is one to keep an eye on and if the match action supports it and entry at halftime could be the way to go. Would stay away if more than 2 goals already in the match. Would want to see Nicolas Mortensen on the team sheet for the home side and either Serges Deble and or Soren Frederiksen for the away team.
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Weekly Round Up Results
06/11/18 +1.6 points
07/11/18 +2.3 points
08/11/18 -0.75 points
09/11/18 +4.2 points
10/11/18 +0.7 points (Boxing - Usyk v Bellew)
11/11/18 -0.8 pointsTotal + 7.25 points profit.
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Results - 11/11/18
Unders Scalping:
Anderlecht v Gent - An action packed first half and a red card to boot, I was monitoring this one but never really felt like there was a safe time to get in. No trade. Game finished 2-0 though.
Atalanta v Inter - A goal after 10 mins or so was my entry point, scalping unders on 2.5 and 3.5 for 1 tick at a time. +0.20 points.
Home Favs:
• Liverpool v Fulham - No trade, odds never reached a point I was happy to enter at.
• Manchester City v Man United - No trade, odds never reached a point I was happy to enter at.
• Besiktas v Sivasspor - Sivasspor took the lead early in H2 and I layed them for 1 point liability. Trade lost -1 point.
• Sporting v Chaves - No trade, odds never reached a point I was happy to enter at.So a loss of 0.8 points on the day.
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Watch List/Trading Plan – 11/11/18
Unders Scalping:
Anderlecht v Gent
Average goal is + 38 minutes combined, +50 minutes for the home team. 60% under 2.5 combined and 80% unders on the H2H’s. 45% chance of 0-0 at half time. Will be looking for opportunities to get in and out following goals or flat spots in the match.Atalanta v Inter
Average goal time +36 minutes with both teams recording 60% unders when the home team plays at home and the away team plays away. Only a 25% chance of 0-0 at halftime so with this game ill be looking to get in after the first goal if its in the first half.Home Favs - Games where the home side score first 80-90%.
often these will be quite short prices to begin with, so watch the markets and look to side with the home team if they concede early or if its 0-0 in the second half.• Liverpool v Fulham
• Manchester City v Man United
• Besiktas v Sivasspor
• Sporting v Chaves -
@keith-anderson said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
LTD / LCS in the Hoffenheim v Augsburg match. Currently 0-0 at HT
Goal!! It's a pity I posted it in the wrong place!!
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LTD / LCS in the Hoffenheim v Augsburg match. Currently 0-0 at HT
