CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...
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Nothing from me today, family day so I can be free to trade tomorrow when the better games are on. May post up a few inplay thoughts if I get chance.
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Results - 09/11/18
Home Favs: (teams where the home side score first frequently and the away side concede first frequently)
Sparta Rotterdam v Jong Utrecht
GA Eagles v DordrechtBoth trades converted to lays of the away team following them taking the lead, Sparta were 0-2 down in 14 minutes, Utrecht were layed at 2.96 and greened up at 2-2 at halftime. +0.8 points profit. Sparta went on to win 4-2.
Dordrecht scored not long before halftime and I considered leaving this one alone but changed my mind when @Keith-Anderson also shouted out a lay on the away team. Layed at 2.67 and greened up on 75 mins just after the equalizer. +1.2 points.
HT LTD (teams where there are 2+ average goals in H2)
Almere City v Cambuur
1-1 at half time and a nice simple lay at 2.88. Greened up after the goal for +0.5 points.
Scalping:
Left the Sheffield derby alone, was watching the game and despite it finishing 0-0 it didnt look like the right type of game for unders scalping. No trade.
Fared better in Portugal nipping in and out after the first goal around 20 mins. +0.10 points.
Shouted out a couple of in plays too in Grenoble v Ajaccio and Frosinone v Fiorentina. Simple LTD's with both games at 0-0. Grenoble actually almost made it on to watchlist for home favs, they ran out 2-0 winners in the end and +0.6 points for me. Fiorentina actually score straight after I was matched with a goal just after halftime and another +1 point profit.
All in all a pretty decent trading session and +4.2 points.
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Inplay - LTD/LCS Frosinone v Fiorentina
Goal 0-1 green up!
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Inplay - LTD/LCS Frosinone v Fiorentina
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Inplay - LTD/LCS Grenoble v AC Ajaccio
Goal 1-0 green up
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Inplay - LTD/LCS Grenoble v AC Ajaccio
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Watch List/Trading Plan – 09/11/18
Home Favs: (teams where the home side score first frequently and the away side concede first frequently)
- Sparta Rotterdam v Jong Utrecht
- GA Eagles v Dordrecht
HT LTD (teams where there are 2+ average goals in H2)
- Almere City v Cambuur
Scalping: (Teams with low percentages of over 2.5 and BTTS)
- Sheffield United v Sheffield Weds
- Setubal v Feirense
No time for a more detailed write up today unfortunately due to work and personal commitments. As always with my stuff treat this as a watch list and not a direct set and go strategy, look for the inplay stats to confirm the above is likely to play out and then time entry and exits accordingly. Aggregate exposure should not exceed 5 points in liabilities.
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Inplay - cheap LTD at 1.38 in the Arsenal game for me.
Result - trade lost. - 0.75 points.
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Inplay - cheap LTD at 1.38 in the Arsenal game for me.
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@chris-watts Pants today isn't it! Not much at all about. I like these days though!
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Watch List/Trading Plan - 08/11/18
Nothing from me today. Will spend the time researching and getting ready for the weekend.
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@chris-watts great isn't it! I love Juve though
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@martin-futter said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
the perfect trade! green up at 1-0 and watch the original bet lose, love this game!
It’s so much fun I’m surprised it’s not illegal!
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Watch List/Trading Plan - 07/11/18:
The only games hitting my filters today are from poor leagues where the liquidity is likely to be weak and the games are hard to watch so no trades advised.
I do however agree with @Martin-Futter on the Juve price in todays champions league game versus United. Juve havent lost a champions league group game at home since 2009. They currently sit top of the group after winning the first three games and havent even conceded a single goal. They totally outclassed United a couple of weeks ago in Manchester and I'm surprised to see them available at 1.7. They do have a couple of injuries but a front three of Dybala, Ronaldo and Mandzukic are more than capable of giving the shaky united defense a hard time. United have been slow starters in recent games and if they give this Juve team the same opportunities afforded to Bournemouth and Newcastle then they could be in serious trouble.
1.7 on Juve is almost attractive enough for me to want to go in a little earlier than my usual pattern of watching the first 20mins.....but not quite. I will be watching though and looking for opportunities to side with Juve if the match action supports doing so.
Result - a little bit of patience was required with this after a fairly solid first half from United but at odds of over evens I couldn’t turn Juve down. I also didn’t build the position in the way I do most of my trades, no messing about with this one, 3 points on at just over evens and 2.3 points profit in the bag. Lovely.
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@nathan-bennett yes mate they are all here: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/podcast
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@chris-watts big fan of business of betting podcast too, and BTC of course
I listen to a lot of podcasts so will give these other ones a go too. I also like the matchbook betting podcasts for a bit of insight. -
Super easy mate, I listen to them on my iPhone. Just go to the podcast app that comes with iOS and then search for BTC and subscribe. They go all the way back to 2016!
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@chris-watts @Martin-Futter @Ryan-Carruthers how far back do the BTC podcasts go are they easy to source and available even if only been a member for a period of time
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@martin-futter It really could be men against boys this one if United cant find some testicles and deal with the occasion from the off, there obviously finding it easier to play when their behind at the minute which makes me think their nervous and lacking confidence. I'm particularly interested in how they start tonight and that first 30 mins, if they look shaky from the off ill definitely have my trigger finger on the back button for Juve.
If all of the above plays out as expected even if United sneak a cheeky one from a corner or rogue penalty i still think there will be plenty of options to trade around that opening position of backing Juve. I'm quite an active trader, especially if I can watch the game with decent pictures, moving positions around in the match odds market and even arbing them off against the correct score and overs. Sometime this dilutes the profit or adds to a loss but equally there's lots of times when i'm able to trade through an opening position that goes against me. Obviously all within the confines of a sensible staking plan!
