CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...
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Weekly Results
03/12/18 +3.9
04/12/18 +0.4
05/12/18 -5
06/12/18 nothing
07/12/18 nothing
08/12/18 nothing
09/12/18 nothingOverall Result - 0.7 points
My first losing week in a fair while, all the more frustrating as it could have been easily avoided had I have executed and managed the trade position in the Man v Arsenal game correctly. I took a few days off after that to ensure it didnt bleed into further days and really do some damage to the bank.
Key lesson for the week - Do what you know is right, don't be greedy! I spurned two opportunities to take profit in the Man U game and ended up with a full 5 point loss and then didnt trade for a few days so there is opportunity cost too!
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@chris-watts we are going to record them as podcasts from next week! yes guests will be good anyone who wants to be on it just let @Ryan-Carruthers know as he is the host!
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@martin-futter would make great podcast material too, once a month or something maybe even with the odd member guest. @John-Folan @Keith-Anderson etc
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@chris-watts cheers mate! will see if we can get it to automate onto here as a post
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@Ryan-Carruthers @Martin-Futter loving the BTC football show on YouTube guys! You should really publicise that on the forum!
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@chris-watts I think you were very unlucky here Chris. Had it not been for the freak occurrence of the Utd equalizer so quick to make it 2-2 you would have been sitting in a nice position. Nice write up, always appreciate people sharing losing trades as we can all learn from it then!
I was in the process of laying the draw when arsenal scored to make it 2-1. I was so frustrated I’d just missed my entry, that when United made it 2-2 I thought I’d get involved. I cashed out for scratch soon after though realizing I only entered the trade because I was chasing the frustration of the missed opportunity earlier, I hadn’t made a judgement on what I thought would happen next. -
Results - 05/12/18
Ok, so you can see from my original post that I was bullish on Arsenal, over 2.5 and BTTS before the game. I had an outline in my mind of how I thought this game would play out and I'd planned to watch and wait for confirming signals that my thoughts were correct before entering the market. So far so good....here's what happened.
United started better than I'd expected, they've been slow starters most of the season and have often fallen behind at which point they seem to raise there level, probably because being behind counter intuitively releases some of the pressure on performance. In any case their positive start was enough to delay me entering the market.
20 minutes into the game and I started to sense that the early United enthusiasm was wearing off and Arsenal were getting a foothold into the match, I decided to enter the market with a lay of Man United for a 2 point liability and back of Arsenal for 0.5 points.
A minute or so later Arsenal do the decent thing and score albeit from a fairly untypical mistake from David De Gea. At this point I'm sitting there congratulating myself on my excellent match reading skills and feeling pretty good about the prospect of another positive trading session. My available green is now a little over 1.2 points.... I don't take it, i do nothing.
Here's where it starts to go wrong! I hesitate further and still don't reduce my liability or take any green, i'm waiting for the market to settle and to see if the goal has significantly altered the tempo of the match. Before I've had chance to rethink United have equalized and i'm back pretty much to where I started. My available green is now 0.2 points.
1-1 doesn't fundamentally change my assessment of the game at this point, I still don't fancy United, in the back of my mind I've got Arsenal's performance against Spurs and their reaction to going behind. I'm still Bullish on Arsenal although I've now missed the opportunity to get involved with BTTS and over 2.5. I notice United's price is bouncing between 2.64 and 2.72 depending on the play, I decide to scalp United for a few ticks and take 0.2 points out of my liability.
Half time arrives and the game has gone a little bit flat, I decide that at this point i'd rather have both teams on my side so I cash out my existing positions for a small green and LTD for 4 points liability. I'm keeping 1 point up my sleeve to back either team if they start to dominate.
Nothing much happens, i'm undecided but still slightly leaning towards Arsenal and then we get the Rojo own goal. Im thinking BONUS, that works! but that excitement was short lived again as im entering the necessary trades to green out my position the market suspends again...FFS!!! United have equalized....again!
So now i'm looking at a loss of 1.4 points, not too bad and not a catastrophe by any means. Hmmm what to do now, a brief flurry of Arsenal pressure makes up my mind to back Arsenal with the 1 point I'd kept spare to use on this game. I've now got a full 5 point liability on this match.
Both sides are huffing and puffing at this point but the quality is lacking - this should have been the warning sign that saw me out of the market and taking the loss, which at the time was around 2 points. I don't take it, I hesitate again having now spurned two opportunities to take a profit and missed out on BTTS and over 2.5.
The game is drawing to a close, Arsenal score but its offside and at this point I'm thinking im pretty much "pot committed" to this trade to use poker terminology - the amount of my liability I can get out compared to what is on offer if they do manage to score doesnt make it worthwhile taking.
The game finishes and i'm left to rue what is probably my worst piece of trading in the last 12mths, I felt like I had regressed months back to my early days as a trader.
My research was on point, the opportunities were available but a series of mistakes and badly executed trades resulted in a full 5 point loss.
When is a trade really just a bet? - when you fail the take the exit at the predetermined point!!
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WatchList/Trading Plan - 05/12/18
So many games hitting my filters today but for me its all about one game...Manchester United v Arsenal. I see value everywhere in this game!
Match Odds - I know Arsenal gave a lot in the Spurs game at the weekend but I cant have them at 3.05 against a woeful Man U side! This historically is the sort of game that Jose would find a way to get something from and United's home record is very strong (undefeated in 35 of the last 38 at home) but lets be honest they've got problems. There's something fundamentally broken at that club and when you add that to the injury problems the price on Arsenal screams value to me! Ill be watching and looking to lay United if the match action supports.
Over 2.5 - Averaging 3.5 goals per game combined and 2.17 goals in the second half. 83% of their combined games goes over 2.5 indicating a fair price of circa 1.2. The market is currently trading at 1.67. An overs play at halftime could be a good option tonight, as always watch and wait for the best entry points, match up the prices on offer with what is actually taking place in the game and green/red out if there's a significant change.
BTTS - Recording similar percentages to the overs markets would see 1.2 as a fair price for BTTS. Market currently trading at 1.54. I like to use this market as a hedge against any trades I open in the match odds market.
Anything could happen in this game! I'm very much looking forward to watching it and seeing what trading opportunities present themselves!
Anyone else got any thoughts on the match?
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Results - 04/12/18
Under 3.5
Bournemouth v Huddersfield
I think the market is over rating Bournemouth here. Under 3.5 is trading at around 1.4 whereas I have it at nearer 1.25.
Against similar opposition type under 2.5 goals is at 80%. Bournemouth don’t tend to concede many if any FHG’s against this type of opponent and Huddersfield only average conceding 0.67 FHG (again against similar opposition). These two teams only average 2 goals a game combined when playing against similar teams too. I will be looking scalp unders following goals or flat spots in the game.This one will need a bit of watching though, if the game starts off like a house on fire from kick off then it’s a no trade and move on.
For a bit of context – the Brighton v Palace game has very similar stats to the above but the under 3.5 price is 1.23.
Result - A lively start with Bournemouth scoring 2 in the first 20 minutes or so. No trade. The game did finish 2-1 so under 3.5 would have come in if you had the nerve to see it through the second half....I didnt!
BTTS NO - Scalping:
Amiens v Monaco
This game hits my filter for scalping owing to both teams recording low percentages of BTTS. One to monitor and look to scalp BTTS no depending on the play. Current price is around evens but I have it nearer 1.53. Average time of first goal is 28 minutes.
Result - on at 1.95 for a 2 point liability, out at 1.63 for +0.4 points profit. BTTS no landed too if playing as a straight bet, I was scalping and happy to take what the market was offering at the time.
Overall Result +0.4 points
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Watch List/Trading Plan – 04/12/18
Under 3.5
Bournemouth v Huddersfield
I think the market is over rating Bournemouth here. Under 3.5 is trading at around 1.4 whereas I have it at nearer 1.25.
Against similar opposition type under 2.5 goals is at 80%. Bournemouth don’t tend to concede many if any FHG’s against this type of opponent and Huddersfield only average conceding 0.67 FHG (again against similar opposition). These two teams only average 2 goals a game combined when playing against similar teams too. I will be looking scalp unders following goals or flat spots in the game.This one will need a bit of watching though, if the game starts off like a house on fire from kick off then it’s a no trade and move on.
For a bit of context – the Brighton v Palace game has very similar stats to the above but the under 3.5 price is 1.23.
BTTS NO - Scalping:
Amiens v Monaco
This game hits my filter for scalping owing to both teams recording low percentages of BTTS. One to monitor and look to scalp BTTS no depending on the play. Current price is around evens but I have it nearer 1.53. Average time of first goal is 28 minutes.
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Results - 03/12/18
2HG’s:
Italy: Serie A – Atalanta v Napoli
Averaging 3.2 goals per game with 2 in the second half this one caught my eye for a potential LTD/LCS/Overs trade in the second half. The numbers don’t change much depending on all opposition type versus same opposition type. Personally, I always prefer to use same opposition type. I’m glad there’s not much discrepancy though as same opposition type can often be a small sample size. 80% of games (combined) go over 2.5 suggesting odds of circa 1.25, the market is currently trading at 1.83 so potentially some value there depending on the game action. BTTS could come in to my thoughts for this game too if the price was more than 2.4 and the score was 1-0 or 0-1 with the losing team showing some intent.
Average goal time in the H2H’s is circa 42 minutes which is significantly longer than against all opposition type at just 24 minutes combined. There’s likely a trade in this game somewhere and its probably second half goals so keep an eye on the game and look for good entry points.Result - Napoli went ahead fairly early and I was pleased with myself for staying out of the market and waiting on a better entry, it was tempting to start backing overs after Napoli scored. I was faffing around so much with my decision making in H2 on whether or not to back BTTS when the inevitable happened and Atalanta scored! bloody typical, as it was that made up my mind to LTD and I got in at an average price of 1.96 for 1 point liability and duly greened up for a 0.9 point profit when Napoli scored the winner. +0.9 points.
BTTS/Match Odds/HT LTD:
England: Championship – West Brom v Brentford
This is a televised game, so I always want to research it just in case I get tempted whilst watching! As it happens it also hits a few of my filters. This season against similar opposition type West Brom record 80% for BTTS, Brentford 60% so overall combined 70% BTTS.
Brentford were a team I enjoyed following for their football style under Dean Smith and because their owned by Matthew Benham (very successful gambler and big user of XG). But since Dean Smith went to Villa they have tailed off from a results perspective at least. XG data has them 12th in the league but their actually 18th.
West Brom come into the game in good form having won their last 3 and I can make a case for a small amount of value in their 1.87 price in the match odds market. I have them a bit shorter at 1.71.
30% of games go into half time 0-0 but 0% of games have finished 0-0. Overs is trading at 1.68 and I have that as about spot on. 61% of goals come in H2.
Ill be watching this one and looking to side with West Brom if they start well and the price gets above evens. Depending on the play BTTS could be a good hedge against the match odds. If it’s 0-0 at halftime then a back of West Brom and LTD would be my likely route into the market as long as Brentford were not clearly getting the upper hand.Result - A dominant first half from West Brom with XG having them at 1.98 for the first 45 minutes, I couldnt resist getting involved on this one purley because West Brom were playing so well and ultimately backed West Brom at 1.9 (this was only marginally short of where I'd originally intended to get in anyway at around evens). In any case they failed to score in H1 and I was laying the draw from midway in the second half to an average price of 1.91. I greened out when West Brom took the lead for a 3 point profit. +3 points.
BTTS came in too but I hadnt backed it as I was reaching my self imposed exposure limit on the other markets. I never have more than a 5 point liability in any one game.
Overall Result +3.9 points
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Monthly Result - November 2018
Week one +7.25 points
Week two +0.99 points
Week three +10 points
Week four -1.36Total Result +16.88 Points
outstanding!
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Trading Plan/Watch List – 03/12/18
2HG’s:
Italy: Serie A – Atalanta v Napoli
Averaging 3.2 goals per game with 2 in the second half this one caught my eye for a potential LTD/LCS/Overs trade in the second half. The numbers don’t change much depending on all opposition type versus same opposition type. Personally, I always prefer to use same opposition type. I’m glad there’s not much discrepancy though as same opposition type can often be a small sample size. 80% of games (combined) go over 2.5 suggesting odds of circa 1.25, the market is currently trading at 1.83 so potentially some value there depending on the game action. BTTS could come in to my thoughts for this game too if the price was more than 2.4 and the score was 1-0 or 0-1 with the losing team showing some intent.
Average goal time in the H2H’s is circa 42 minutes which is significantly longer than against all opposition type at just 24 minutes combined. There’s likely a trade in this game somewhere and its probably second half goals so keep an eye on the game and look for good entry points.BTTS/Match Odds/HT LTD:
England: Championship – West Brom v Brentford
This is a televised game, so I always want to research it just in case I get tempted whilst watching! As it happens it also hits a few of my filters. This season against similar opposition type West Brom record 80% for BTTS, Brentford 60% so overall combined 70% BTTS.
Brentford were a team I enjoyed following for their football style under Dean Smith and because their owned by Matthew Benham (very successful gambler and big user of XG). But since Dean Smith went to Villa they have tailed off from a results perspective at least. XG data has them 12th in the league but their actually 18th.
West Brom come into the game in good form having won their last 3 and I can make a case for a small amount of value in their 1.87 price in the match odds market. I have them a bit shorter at 1.71.
30% of games go into half time 0-0 but 0% of games have finished 0-0. Overs is trading at 1.68 and I have that as about spot on. 61% of goals come in H2.
Ill be watching this one and looking to side with West Brom if they start well and the price gets above evens. Depending on the play BTTS could be a good hedge against the match odds. If it’s 0-0 at halftime then a back of West Brom and LTD would be my likely route into the market as long as Brentford were not clearly getting the upper hand.
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So I've been away for a few days and reading through the forum it seems that a fair few new members have joined and that's great to see! the bigger the community gets the more diversity of thought we will have and the greater the opportunity to learn from each other becomes. With that in mind I thought I'd share my "rules" these are the basic headline thoughts I try to keep front of mind when trading:
- Pay attention to the rules!
- Don't take somebody else's trade/suggestion/tip without first getting comfortable with the reasoning behind it for yourself
- Your first loss is your best loss - take small losses don't let them grow into big losses and kill the bank
- Compounding profit is the key to success, little and often adds up, nobody ever got poor from taking a profit however small
- Focus on the process of trading (research) and good execution (performance) not on monetary results (outcome)
Hopefully anyone who reads this will think its common sense...and it is! but actually putting it in to practice is what defines whether or not you will be successful. This community appeals to me not for the trade opportunities that are suggested but for the availability of discussing how and why those trades are suggested. Ultimately if you want to be a pro trader or even make a decent second income from trading your going to need to be able to stand on your own two feet at some point. This community can give you everything you need to get there!
If your new to BTC...welcome onboard! and please feel free to reach out and join in the discussions, I'd be more than happy to help if required.
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@chris-watts very well played sir. That's a good month
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Monthly Result - November 2018
Week one +7.25 points
Week two +0.99 points
Week three +10 points
Week four -1.36Total Result +16.88 Points
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Weekly Round Up Results:
26/11/18 -1.36 points
27/11/18 Nothing
28/11/18 Nothing
29/11/18 Nothing
30/11/18 Nothing
01/11/18 Nothing
02/11/18 NothingResult - 1.36 points
All in all a slow week owing to some business travel in Amsterdam. I'm very much looking forward to getting back to some trading this week though! and we have a bumper week in the footy to fill our boots!
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@chris-watts WOW!!! Have fun matey, be safe!
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Nothing from me for a couple of days now, i'm off to Amsterdam! back at the weekend.
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Results - 25/11/18
No dice in Italy. The dreaded 0-0.
Minus 1.36 points (BTTS and inplay LTD).
