CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...
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@chris-watts I love reading these
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@lee-woodman no worries, yeah the idea is that the Elo difference being 100 or less should give fairly evenly matched teams. The goal expectancy at over 2.5 should give an opportunity for a team to win and the other criteria is for each team to have a stronger offence than the opponents defence. I tend to cut out the most illiquid leagues too so no Iran etc.
The sheet might contain some selections where I’ve copied them across in error or not noticed. It can be a little tricky when there’s loads of games on and your looking at reams and reams of numerical data in rows. I’ve tried to automate it from the transfer sheet to narrow down the admin and manual input but I’m not that gifted with excel so again there may be a few that have slipped through.
That’s one of the reasons why I wanted to open it up to the community- maybe someone has a better way of automating the process.
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@chris-watts Yeah of course. Im following with interest as a do like the concept behind it. So the filters are ELO difference less than 100 & goal exp over 2.5, for the other 2 filters it says home offence => to away defence (and vice versa) but i noticed that was the case in every instance.....or am i mis-understanding? (Please excuse my on this, ive not used the offence or ELO ratings before)
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@lee-woodman just the four selections Lee, I suspect when the data sample grows we will be able to filter out certain leagues/countries etc. Assuming it remains EV+ as a concept.
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@chris-watts good work! I noticed your other thread and it looks promising. Was there just 4 selections based on the criteria you listed, or did you narrow it further?
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Trading Plan/Watch List:
LTD:
Hoffenheim v Bayer Leverkusen
Bohemians v St. Patricks
Dundalk v Cork City
West Brom v BirminghamI play these as set and forget straight from kick off. There based on an ELO system i've been working on for a little while. The current sample is circa 300 and is showing a ROI of 5% to flat laying stakes. When I can remember or reset my drop box password ill share the data sheet in a thread - could potentially make a good group project.
Scalping:
Will be looking to scalp Girona v Athletico Bilbao.
4 out of 4 for the LTDs and a fairly routine bit of scalping in Spain. Not a bad night.
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Trading Plan/Watch List:
LTD:
Hoffenheim v Bayer Leverkusen
Bohemians v St. Patricks
Dundalk v Cork City
West Brom v BirminghamI play these as set and forget straight from kick off. There based on an ELO system i've been working on for a little while. The current sample is circa 300 and is showing a ROI of 5% to flat laying stakes. When I can remember or reset my drop box password ill share the data sheet in a thread - could potentially make a good group project.
Scalping:
Will be looking to scalp Girona v Athletico Bilbao.
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Trading Plan/Watchlist - 22/03/19
I almost missed this game in my filters owing to the general malaise I have during international breaks! But low and behold we have a league game to look at! happy days!
Almere City v Oss:
There's a perception about this league that it produces plenty of goals and on occasion that is true but the stats for these two when playing similar opposition point to a low scoring affair with expected goals at 2.13. There appears to be a concentration of goals either side of half time when they do score, 36% of goals between 31-60 mins.
Ill monitor this one and play it one of two ways based on the action:
1: the game is slow and not much is happening - scalp under 2.5 & 3.5
2: the game is lively and attacking - back over 0.5 FHG at 25mins or so. If no first half goal back over 1.5 at halftime with a stop loss at 60mins. -
@keith-anderson Ergh!!!
My lady bought me a tour of Anfield, she says she really enjoyed it.....
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I'm taking 10 days off ferrying a friend from the US around and really don't miss trading the football during the international break - We did the tour and museum at Old Trafford today - 400 mile round trip but she did buy the overpriced food
A tour of Old Trafford?! Jesus, @Dave-Jessop you sure know what the ladies like!
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@dave-jessop and they say chivalry is dead
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Yeah I agree! Really interesting yesterday the goal lines in the Wales and Germany games got smashed in about 2-3 hours before kick off, so would have been a lot of value on the unders yesterday. Worth keeping an eye on today.
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MEH! I'm so bored of international football already! bring back league football!!! Does anyone else think trading unders is the only way forward with internationals? Ill be scalping only until we get some league stuff back.
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Trading Plan/Watch List 15/03/19
First Half Goals:
Helmond v GA Eagles
Sporting v Santa ClaraBoth games record high percentages of over 1.5 FHG’s. Will monitor and look to enter the market around 20mins in if the play supports.
Second half goals:
Sittard v Emmen
Almere v Sparta Rotterdam
Nijmegen v Den Bosch
Cagliari v FiorentinaAll games averaging over 1.5 goals in H2, will monitor and look to back overs at halftime if the play supports and the price offers some value.
Over 1.5
Monchengladbach v Freiburg
Lille v MonacoWill be looking at these games for Ryan’s split stake strategy. Backing over 1.5 goals at 30mins out if 0-0.
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@chris-watts Good to see you back!
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Trading Plan/Watchlist – 13/03/19
A raft of championship games to look at tonight, my first thoughts are that it looks like a good night for unders trades. My filters show the expected goal range for tonight’s games between 2.15 and 2.75.
QPR V Rotherham:
Expected goals 2.75, fairly evenly distributed expectations on goal times with 1.35 in H1 and 1.4 in H2. Average time of first goal at 30mins. 50% of games against similar opposition go over 2.5 and 55% go BTTS. I will monitor this game to see what the play is like but unless the action is frantic ill be looking to side with under 3.5 at 1.55ish (I have it nearer 1.35). Ill also look to add to the position following any early goals providing they are against the run of play and not the result of a widely open attacking game.Will Vaulks will be a miss for Rotherham following his straight red against Sheffield United last week.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see this finish 0-0 given that Rotheram have failed to win in their last 18 away matches and QPR have failed to win in 11 of their last 12 matches. Under 2.5 has landed in 5 of Rotherham’s last 6 away matches too.Derby v Stoke
Expected goals 2.65, weighted more towards H2 with 1.55 goals in the second half. The value here actually lies with overs despite only 55% of games going over 2.5. The odds at 2.5 represent a 40% chance.
To be honest though I’d find it difficult to pull the trigger on an overs trade for these two teams. Derby are missing key players in Lawrence, Forsyth and Mount. And for Stoke’s part they are woeful away from home failing to score in 5 of their last 7.Ill keep an eye on it because the odds will be attractive if it gets to halftime at 0-0 or 1-0/0-1. There might be an opportunity for a cheap lay.
West Brom v Swansea
Expected goals 2.5 and again weighted more to H2 at 1.55. 45% of games go over 2.5 and 50% BTTS.
Im inclined to swerve this game owing to Daren Moore getting the sack at the weekend. Hard to quantify the impact of that on the team and they will have key centre back partnership Hegazi and Dawson missing again. Swansea are not great away from home and West Brom are not great at home….This adds up to a basket case of a match from a trading point of view in my mind.Under 2.5 at over evens offers a touch of value, I have it nearer 1.8 but I’d want some live pictures before getting too involved in this one. Scalping under 3.5 following early goals against the run of play wouldn’t be a bad idea if you can watch.
Norwich v Hull
Hard not to be impressed by Norwich this season, good football, plenty of goals and lots of dramatic late comebacks makes for some good trading opportunities. The stats from my filters don’t scream out an obvious trade with expected goals only coming out at 2.45. This could be a KISS (keep it simple stupid) type trade with a straight back of Norwich and green up after a goal. Hull have lost their last 4 away games shipping an average of 3.25 goals per game (the fifth away match was also only a draw at Villa that ended 2-2). I’d like it if Hull could hold out for 30 mins or so to allow for some price appreciation past the 1.53 currently on offer on a Norwich win. Hull concede 38% of their goals between 31-45mins. No notable team news for either side, would want to see Pukki on the team sheet for Norwich. Bowen is the key player for Hull.Birmingham v Millwall
Another game that ill probably swerve on the back of the frankly disgusting incident at the weekend with a Birmingham fan running onto the pitch and punching Jack Grealish on the back of the head. Very hard to know what impact this will have had on the club in the build up to this game, but all of the negative publicity surely won’t have helped preparation. All my stats point to a low scoring affair but there’s no value for me in the current unders markets. I have under 2.5 at 1.85 and the price is currently trading at 1.7.Middlesbrough v Preston
Expected goals 2.2 barely scraping a goal in each half. Overs record 45% and BTTS at 30%. No value in the unders market for me, currently trading at 1.66 whereas I would have it at 1.8ish again. Preston’s recent away form is notable though, winning their last 5 away matches and scoring a reasonable amount too. I actually wonder if Boro are a touch short here at 2.12. Maybe one to watch and if there are signs that Boro are not up for the task a lay of them could be an option. Boro will be without Aden Flint too. Preston are missing a few with Callum Robinson being the most missed.Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa
Another potentially low scoring affair on the cards here, I have expected goals at 2.15. BTTS to score is a measly 30% and overs at 50%. Lewis Grabban will likely be missing for Forest and that takes their main goal threat out. I don’t see an immediate trading angle on this match, the market looks to have the pricing about fair to me and with so many other games on tonight ill probably drop this one.Summary
I wont trade all of the above, instead ill monitor the games and look for the ones that most closely resemble my research then look to trade those with a combined exposure of no more than 5% of my bank. -
Guys my apologies for the lack of posts recently, between family and work commitments I haven't been able to spend as much time on my research game as I would have liked. It's been a fairly interesting experiment for my trading though as I've been concentrating on inplay trades (mainly scalping) and predominantly based on little more than my own match reading skills. Thankfully life is normalizing a bit now and I can hopefully pick this thread up again on a more consistent basis.
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Trading Plan/Watch List - 05/02/19
Unders scalping in the Marseille v Bordeaux game at 18:00.
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Trading Plan/Watch List – 04/02/19
Scalping:
St Pauli v Union Berlin – will scalp under 2.5/3.5 following goals or flat periods in the game.A quiet first half and a bit of scalping after the goal around the 25th minute for 0.5 points - the game really came to life in the second half and finished 3-2 with a 94th minute penalty securing the win for St Pauli.
2nd Half Goals:
Cagliari v Atalanta – Will monitor this game and look to get in at halftime (either LTD or LCS) depending on the score and match action.A dull first half and as so often happens a goal pretty quickly in the second half. No trade for me as the goal came too early.
+0.5 points.
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Trading Plan/Watch List – 04/02/19
Scalping:
St Pauli v Union Berlin – will scalp under 2.5/3.5 following goals or flat periods in the game.2nd Half Goals:
Cagliari v Atalanta – Will monitor this game and look to get in at halftime (either LTD or LCS) depending on the score and match action.
