CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...
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Hi BTC!
A thread to record my thoughts, hold myself accountable and hopefully help a few others along the way. Please feel free to reach out and interact with me, ask questions, have debate. Positive criticism is also welcome.
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Having a little lay of the home fav in the big 5:30 Belarus match....can’t be bothered to try and spell the names!
Given the propensity for pretty low scores in this league would hope they drift a bit and allow my liability to scale out accordingly.
Scratching this one with a small loss - home team look significantly better than the away side. May have a look at backing the home side of they don’t break through FH.
Ouch! Shocking timing
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Having a little lay of the home fav in the big 5:30 Belarus match....can’t be bothered to try and spell the names!
Given the propensity for pretty low scores in this league would hope they drift a bit and allow my liability to scale out accordingly.
Scratching this one with a small loss - home team look significantly better than the away side. May have a look at backing the home side of they don’t break through FH.
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Having a little lay of the home fav in the big 5:30 Belarus match....can’t be bothered to try and spell the names!
Given the propensity for pretty low scores in this league would hope they drift a bit and allow my liability to scale out accordingly.
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@chris-watts Wahooooo! Good to see you bud!
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@chris-watts good to have you back! look forward to that and all the sport being back!
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Hello fellas,
I’ve been away for a few months, rejoined yesterday. The work on the forum looks as good as ever. Looking forward to contributing....once we get some sport back!
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Thanks Chris for taking your time to answer my questions. Its people like yourself who really do help people here and make it work being part of this community group.
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@gary-brown regarding the question on how do you deal with the differences between research and what your seeing....this is kind of hard to answer and depends on your own personality and trading style. It’s the reason why you can’t just copy other traders strategies and be successful. You’ve got to find a mix of the two that works for you. Too much of one or the other and you’ll end up applying some kind of bias or internal belief you hold or missing opportunities that you can otherwise clearly see. I would say try not to overthink it. It will click eventually if you keep working at it.
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@gary-brown I traded it exactly as I described in my original post mate. Scalping through the first half and then drip backing the overs in second half. I kept the overs backing to within the profit I’d built up from scalping though. If the game would’ve had a touch more quality to it I’d have been more aggressive and took on some actual liability in the overs. It’s worth remembering that although I’m in the 2.5 and 3.5 markets I still only needed one goal because I’m in at big prices. One goal and the odds contract significantly and a reasonable profit can be taken or utilised in other trades. Sometimes I’ll immediately start backing unders following a goal where I’m green on the overs. Only for a few minutes though just to steal another quarter point or so. Towards the end I thought Odense would nick it so I had a nibble in the match odds at 4.3ish. It wasn’t to be on this occasion but you’ve really not got to worry about trades in isolation. I know from my own experiences that if I keep taking on those situations it will make a profit across a big enough sample size. The loss in the end was just short of half a point so by no means a disaster.
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Hi Chris I was wondering how you traded the game in the end today. As all stats pointed to a 2nd half goal and a slow start I was wondering how you tackled this in the end whilst watching the game.
Sometimes I feel the backed ground research urges me to make a trade eventhough sometimes what I am seeing doesn't match the plan/research.
Sometimes like today for me watching some games and no goal looks like coming and then a goal comes out of the blue to confirm the reseach can be frustrating. I guess how do you deal with research V what you seefrom watching a game if they don't seem to agree.
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A quarter point back of Odense in the danish game with 10mins left at 4.3 for me.
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@ryan-carruthers said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
@chris-watts Looking forward to have you back my friend!Hi Chris your selection is going well so far. I just did a small u2.5 and u3.5 trade for first 12 mins.
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Watch List for 23.08.19:
I'll be keeping an eye on the Hobro v Odense game in Denmark at 6pm tonight. Expecting a slow first half and will look for scalping opportunities in the 1.5,2.5 & 3.5 markets. Intention being to build up some free green to convert to overs in the second half at hopefully big prices. All the stats point to the majority of goals coming second half but the percentages for overs and BTTS actually converting is relatively low. A good entry point for backing overs would be circa 60mins if 0-0. if no goals are scored before the 80th minute it'll be time to call this a loser and look for ways to scalp again. This is a trade set up that I like a lot and use fairly frequently. Watch the match, ascertain the pace and then scalp first half and back overs second half with the profits from the scalping.
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I didn't trade these Chris but I think this is brill. Love how you are choosing games you can watch as well. I feel this does help when trading football. This will definitely help a novice like myself who has tried different strategies but non have been long term successful at achieving a profit in the long run even with research and looking at stats. Usually I end up being up and then down but not really making any progress apart from not blowing a bank through the good bank management advice I have learnt through BTC.
Something like this from someone who does produce long term profits is fantastic!
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
There’s still a good bit of life in this wolves game, over 2.5 at 3.5ish is a nice entry. Drip backing to a couple point liability until 65 mins in. Will either hold or scalp from there.
1-2 bingo!
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There’s still a good bit of life in this wolves game, over 2.5 at 3.5ish is a nice entry. Drip backing to a couple point liability until 65 mins in. Will either hold or scalp from there.
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@chris-watts Thanks Chris. I will do as I follow you and your suggestions.
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@chris-watts said in CW's watch lists, trading plans and general ramblings...:
Fancy wolves to do ok tonight. There perhaps a few games ahead of Torino in terms of being into the swing of things. I dont think the game v united would’ve taken much out of them this early. I like their price at 3.5 or better. Will be looking for a good lay entry point on Torino if wolves start well.
One nil Wolves that’ll do!
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@gary-brown feel free to ask any questions.
