Trading Q and A Megathread Ask Us Anything!
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@adam-williams @Stephen-Wainwright the best site for quick team sheets is Twitter, search the team name and keep refreshing recent posts, just check it is an official source you use for the actual team not just some idiot making one up!
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@Stephen-Wainwright asked some great questions via email recently so I thought I would post them here, along with the answers:
"Firstly I love the site and the whole concept of a trading community, I will be looking to sign up annually once the month is up
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Is the facebook site still used? Or do all the posts now take place on the forum? I dont have a Facebook but can happily create one if there is useful stuff on there
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On the Stats Software there is a 'Highlights' section - I guess this highlights stats that are unusual and outside of the norm?
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Which site/method is the best (quickest) at getting football teamsheets released?
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On one of the videos there is a demo of filtering by Opposition Type. Does that mean that 10 games are still included as the default? ie if so then some of that data will be outside of the 10 most recent games? So potentially would need to be cautious if some of the data was quite 'old'
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I'm going to focus purely on football and will look to start doing some testing. What size of data set would you suggest, eg I was thinking a minimum of 100 games? I ve seen some of the example spredsheets on football testing. I can see I need to be recording the prices and that looks like the bulk of the work but obviously its important. I just want to make sure I get everything right before starting a prolonged piece of research!
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Can you recommend good way to track the in-play stats in a football match? I ve seen the Betfair 'running text commentary', but the pop-up box is very small on my screen and seems to jump around when I scroll. Also I ve seen that some matches are shown on Betfair (which I had no idea about) - but I guess its a low percentage of games?
Thanks in advance!
Have a good daySteve"
ANSWERS:
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We phased out the FB group in favour of the forum, but the FB group is still there as some people were still referencing the files section there. I believe all the files have now been moved over to the forum though so you won't be missing out by not being on there - no new content is posted there
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The highlights are basically the highest / lowest values of each stat. So you'll see if a particularly large percentage of goals are scored in a certain time window for example. They're not really compared with any kind of "expected" figure though, they are literally just the extreme values for each stat type within that match or league
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Not sure on this one tbh, this could be a good question to put on the forum as someone will probably have an idea.
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The same opposition setting is really powerful and gives you something that would take hours to calculate otherwise BUT yes, it would be last 10 same opposition games by default and you're absolutely right, the drawback there is that you can end up with some quite old data so yes, be wary at times.
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Yes I would go with 100 games as a minimum but also you probably want to make sure you capture at least a whole season as obviously things can be different at the start of a season when players and managers have potentially moved around, and also the end of the season when some teams have nothing left to play for. The other thing I would say is if you're going to make changes to your strategy based on the results of your testing, make sure you only change one variable at a time. It seems like it will take longer that way but if you change too much at once then you make it impossible to tell which change influenced your future results and therefore it won't bring you any closer to nailing your ideal strategy.
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Again this is something that others on the forum may have recommendations on as the options range from simply keeping an eye on something like Flashscore (which includes in-play commentary, goal alerts etc), to full-on in-play scanner software. We're also working on producing something that will let you use our historical stats during the game and produce alerts based on your chosen triggers. Yes Betfair has live coverage of matches and I haven't used it for a while so they may have improved it, but back in the day there was a huge delay so tread carefully if using that to trade!
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Q: @Susan-Creed asked 'I'd be grateful for a link to the overview of the ratings software and a link to the video if there is one. I have searched the forum and site with no joy.
Actually the same for the football statistics would be good too. I can't even find what period the stats cover - is it current season only or can you find previous seasons' information?'
A: Hi Susan,
@Adam-Williams will know about ratings videos, please tag him in any software support related questions so that he is notified of the post.
Not to worry I will get the link for you! Lot's of videos in the video section demonstrating the stats software overview and how to use it.
https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/videos?page=1
I have also made a few videos recently on the blog showing how to set up basic filters:
https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog
Football stats cover last 20, 10 or 5 games depending on your preference.
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@rob-lawton Lay to back, so the thinking here is that we find horses that can be defeated in races.
So for me the premise lay to back, what has to happen for a horse to become a good lay to back? Well.....
a) Is there a horse or horse's that will run better than it? (checking patternform pace figs & others etc...) I.e. front runners...
b) Does the horse have a history of dropping off the pace at this track and distance?
c) Is the jockey in form?These are just a few of the things I think about, but looking for a horse that will struggle. Does this help?
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@martin-futter Cheers Martin, will be interested to hear their thoughts too
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@rob-lawton could be a few things behind it, as you know what the bet is I won't go into that. My thinking would be to lay a horse I did not think would start well in the race and then back it once I hit my profit target as maybe it is known to be a slow starter.
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OK, here's another horse related one. I've tried my hand at a few Back-To-Lay selections and some have been quite successful - I can't get my head around a 'Lay-To-Back' selection though.
What's the thought process on this one, that it's a horse with good odds but expected to lose steam during the race? So you would lay it at say 2.00 but then back it when the odds drift for a profit?
(I may be way out here but that's why I'm asking haha!)
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Thanks both
Seen it mentioned on a few threads just couldn't work it out. Quite a risky strategy then but profitable if you get on a good run -
This might help.
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@john-penny Usually used in horse racing dobbing means 'double or bust', basically you back something above evens (or you could lay odds on but don't think people do that often for these), and if you can trade for 100% profit you take it, or if not you let it run and lose the stake. Idea behind it being that a strike rate above 50% will make you a profit in the long term.
Example:
Back a horse at 10.0 odds on for £10
Try to lay it at 5.0 odds for £20
If matched you will make £10 profit before comm
If unmatched you will lose £10 -
Hi mate
Seen people using the word dobbing and I can't work out what sort of trade this is. Would like to know what this is cheers
