Trading Q and A Megathread Ask Us Anything!
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Just a quick one. I'm thinking of setting the scope for 5 matches on one of my filters. But is that 5 matches each team or 5 matches total between them?
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@nigel said in Trading Q and A Megathread Ask Us Anything!:
hi all
whats the best way to record your p&l , say if you have 5 horse racing strats and 5 football strats etc, and you want to see your p&l for each strat at the the end of the day, week ,month
thankscheck this sheet, lots of strategies all on on sheet (multiple tabs): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NTpTekGxMYNfns6NmyxF9Zyvox3vQn2SCYWDOXu6hXM/edit#gid=1500936206
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@nigel I have 2 tabs for each sport 1 with the data and the results and the second for a summary and analysis.
The data tab is mainly manual input but feeds through into the summary tab which shows things like strategy performance, League preformance, all formula driven and depending on what you need or want
I also have an ovwerall summary tab to show my overall P&L fed from th esports sunnary tabs.
Takes a bit of work to set up bit once your there, its mainly inputting results
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@michael-bailey Assumng your in the UK, you need to get on the 2% commission plan
Go Into Betfair Account and Reward Section and change plan as necessary
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@michael-bailey the base rate of commission is 2%, you should be able to select that option in your account.
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Hey all. Potential stupid question alert. I'm using Betfair Exchange in a pretty standard way and getting charged 5% commission, again as standard. Is this OK or are there different commission plans available with them that anyone uses or would recommend?
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@gary-brown thank you for your response, very informative.
At this precise moment I am not thinking about any particular strategy, just trying to learn what makes a good strategy (other than winning obviously).
I need to expand my knowledge on "value", what would be deemed good value etc. 0.01 gain in odds clearly would not be, but 10 ticks? 20 ticks?
A greater understanding of value would really help me develop my ideas into potentially profitable strategies to test.
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@matt-ayles
Hi Matt yes you wouldnt want to be trading at 1.25 with an 80% strike rate at best you would break even.The key is to enter at higher odds but maintain the 75-80% strike rate on your selections.
collect all data for your filter but enter the market at higher odds.
For example:
over 1.5 goals
instead of entering at KO at around 1.25-1.30 odds enter at 20-25 mins when the odds would be around 1.49-1.55.so if you can continue to get a 75-80% strike rate from you selections you are gaining a steady profit from you selections. You only need a 66% strike rate but your getting a 75-80% strike rate.
some days are good some are bad so it is very very important you judge your selections and strike rate over a course of at least a month to see how your selections perform.
Advice.
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paper trade if possible and record everything such as league, odds, goal times etc.
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Analyse your results. Does the data suggest you need to tweak something to get more profit. Such as avoid certain leagues, enter the market a little earlier or later.
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Use the data collected to try and figure out the best trading strategy to use.
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If you discover a profitable strategy and have data to prove it is profitable then that should help give you the confidence to stick to your trading strategy plan and not chase losses or go off plan and enter games you wouldn't enter when your seeing red screens.
An example is
Player A used a split strategy on the over 2.5 market from provided selections from a tipster.Player B used the same selections and also the same market the over 2.5 market. They used a different trading strategy which wasn't split stakes.
outcome
Player B got totally different results from Player A eventhough they used the same selections on the same market (the over 2.5 market). One was profitable the other had big loses.The key is to collect as much data as you can without risking your own bank of trading money. Analyse your results and then decide what trading strategy is working or if it is not working then you could either adapt or change your filter or move onto a totally different filter such as 2nd half goals. It takes alot of time. Quite a few members here have been members a long long time. Their hard work is slowly paying off after experiencing the bumps along the way. But i must admit catching up with some of the guys who have been members for a long time you can see how they are adapting their strategies and are seeing the rewards.
Only 5% of betfair traders are profitable so its not easy and their is more to it than creating a filter and you instantly make profit. I can imagine the best traders out their have spent hours and hours collecting data, doing deep dives into their results. Tweaking their selections and strategy before they get a strategy that is providing the results they want.
RESULTS
A good filter will produce 10% points profit a month.
If your using £1 stakes that is only £10 a month.
You might think that is rubbish. A waste of time and energy.
Then your wrong.Scale up the £1 stake to £100 stake then that is £1000 a month for your semi pro traders.
Scale up again to £200 stakes and that is £2000 a month and a good income to call your self a pro trader.
Hope this is useful information for you.
Good luck Matt and like everything in life if you want to be successful it is hard but requires time and effort to be put and a lot of patience.BTC videos and podcast and the advice Martin and Ryan provide is very very important.
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Evening all,
I'm doing some analysis of strike rates vs odds and wonder if anyone can offer guidance.
So hypothetically lets say the strike rate is 80%, we know that we would need minimum odds of 1.25 to break even.
My question is, what would a good and realistic margin be? If I therefore aimed for 1.26 I'd make 0.8 points per 100 bets (i think). Hardly worth it... So on my filter I'd want minimum odds of what? (Assuming the strike rate remained at 80%).
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@chris-king gotcha, 100% you are in the right place for asking Q's.
I have played around with using ROCE (return on capital employed) as it's a bit more flexible that ROI and a few of my buddies are into investment banking and told me to try it.
But it was bloody confusing lol One of the keys to looking at my strategies was look at the longest losing run and what it would have done to the bank - did it wipe it me out? Or did I have to adjust all my stakes to compensate for that.
