Trading Q and A Megathread Ask Us Anything!
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Hi guys,
I have a question about odds and %...When I want to back something and my prob is around 66% , I play when the odds are at least 1,51 or more....
However, How does that translate to laying something....eg I lay a draw because I think there is a 66% chance that there's a goal. What are the maximum odds for laying in this case?
I hope my question makes a bit sense, thanks
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@leo-mantle worth checking Curry’s, Argos and Amazon of the big retailers. Check customer reviews too as they will tell you the real story.
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Im looking for a new laptop. What kind is best for trading software automation. Only want to spend around £400 really. Can anyone help?
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@gary-brown @liam-willis perfect answers!
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@gary-brown and thats why this site is worth every penny
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@liam-willis said in Trading Q and A Megathread Ask Us Anything!:
@gary-brown nice one mate that makes a lot more sense now, ive got a lot of records but its the maths behind it where i get confused
were all here to help mate.
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@gary-brown nice one mate that makes a lot more sense now, ive got a lot of records but its the maths behind it where i get confused
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@liam-willis hI Liam Iam no expert but I will try and help.
- A strike rate for a strategy is quite easy its the percentage of winning trades from all the trades you make using that strategy.
So divide the number of winning trades by the number of trades made.
You then x the answer by 100 to get a percentage.- To know if a strike rate is profitable you need to record your trades, including the odds when you entered and the P/L.
A lot of the ways people trade have a strike rate above 80% such as most matches finish with over 1.5 goals. I think this is around 80% which is why the odds for over 1.5 goals is around 1.20 at the start of the match which reflects the 80% chance of this happening.
Most people I guess on here are looking for 80% strike rate but try to enter the markets at 1.40 or above.
- I would answer Q3 with a yes. I make sure my liability is no more than 2% of my bank. Sometimes I avoid LTD trades to later in the match or go for the next goal trade instead to keep my liability the same percentage as my bank.
Again I am no expert but this is how I see things from what I have learnt from being a member here
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3 questions
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how do you work out the strike rate of a strategy?
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how do you know when a strike rate is profitable? for example if a strike rate is 85% is that profitable or is it anything over 50% this is a bit confusing for me.
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when using a betting bank and using a percentage of that bank 1-2% does the liabilty on a lay trade incorporate the percentage or is the percentage on the stake only? how do people approach this?
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@martin-futter
Hope thats worked mate!! its the first vid on the videos page...
Cheers mate.
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Why is the Monaco/PSG game Wednesday not in stats software??
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Hi Martin
Re:- Live Trading Scalping Unders
Ive been following the vid you did for these trades but wondered if there was any more info you could give regarding this method? Or are there more vids I've missed.
Extra tips on picking games? etc...
I've gone back to the start and trying to stay with 2 or three methods I can nail..
Cheers
Stuart
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Just posting some advice so I can look back at here when I am trading.
BANK MANAGEMENT
GOOD READ THIS IS AND CAN BE EASLIER ACHIEVED IMO IF NOT OVER TRADE
If you're going to be a successful football trader, then bank management is critical.
You are going to be working in a market place and that means, of course, buying and selling. Rather than a physical product, you will be buying (backing) and selling (laying) positions in Betfair football markets.
Unlike so many others who fail, you must ensure that your bank never spirals into an unstoppable tail spin! If you do not manage your bank and you lose it, you will not be able to trade any longer.
I promise you this... if you manage your bank properly from day one and get into good habits, you will have a much easier time down the road. It's not easy to get out of bad habits, especially when money is involved.
Bank management is not dependent on the size of your bank. You need to do exactly the same things with a large bank as you do with a small bank and vice versa.
THE 6 RULES OF BANK MANAGEMENT
Here's a set of rules to stick to:
Maintain discipline
Each day you will be working from a trading plan. You will stick to that plan and never be tempted to deviate from it. Maintaining discipline is the biggest failing of traders and is the most difficult to get right.
Be patient
Sometimes the games you were intending to get into are postponed, or perhaps the first goal is scored too early. Do not try and replace it with another game that you have not researched! Be patient and wait for the right opportunities to come along. Remember that, "the patient make money from the impatient".
Don't over trade
It is very easy to be tempted into too many trades. Over trading will inevitably lead to losses in the long run, so don't give in to that temptation. You have a plan, stick to it.
Stake sensibly
Your stake will be related to the size of your bank. It would be incredibly foolish to go into any trade with liabilities too big for your bank, so don't be one of those fools! On the other hand, your stake should not be too small either as this means you are not making your bank work for you.
Limit losses
One of the keys to successful trading is avoiding big losses. There's nothing worse than growing your bank steadily, only for one loss to undo all your hard work. The best trades are those in which your potential profit is higher than your potential loss.
Compound as you go
As Einstein said, "compounding is the 8th wonder of the world". By increasing your bank you will also be increasing your stake size, thus making your wins bigger and growing your bank even faster. It is quite incredible how quickly a bank can grow by using this method, as you're about to discover.
THE POWER OF COMPOUNDING
If you make 10pts (points) profit each month, you will be a very successful trader.
What is a point? It's simply a percentage of your bank, which rises in value as you grow your bank. We advise that you divide your trading bank into 100pts, so a £1,000 trading bank becomes 100pts of £10 each. At the end of each month, you recalculate the value of 1pt and that's going to literally transform your life!
How? It's called 'compounding' and this is exactly how it works:
Month 1
You start with a bank of £1,000 and divide it into 100pts. Therefore, the value of 1pt is £10. When you hit your target of 10pts profit by the end of the month, your bank stands at £1,100.
Month 2
You once again divide your bank into 100pts which means that now the value of 1pt is £11. You hit your 10pts profit target again and your bank stands at £1,210.
Month 3
1pt is now worth £12.10 and hitting your 10pts profit target grows your bank to £1,331.
Month 4
1pt is worth £13.31 and your bank grows to £1,464.10 when you hit your profit target of 10pts.
And so it continues, month after month...
By the time you reach the end of year one, your £1,000 bank has become £3,138.43
At the end of year two it is up to £9,849.73
After just three years, your £1,000 bank has now grown into £30,912.68
That's incredible bank growth, yet 10pts profit per month is a very achievable amount working out at roughly 0.33pt per day. If you have a £1,000 trading bank, that's just £3.30!
Of course, nobody wants to trade every day and there will be days on which there are no trades strong enough to risk money on, so let's assume you trade on a Friday, Saturday, Sunday and one midweek evening too. In order to make 10pts profit each month, you need to make an average of 0.63pt each time you trade.
So £6.30 profit, 4 days per week from a £1,000 bank... do you think you can do that?
We're going to show you exactly how to do it. Your biggest enemy is impatience. Stick to 10pts per month and don't be tempted to push your luck. If you give in to temptation, you may well spiral out of control and blow your bank. Don't do it.
There is a lot to learn about trading, so take your time and keep the pressure off. Your bank is your working capital; it is all you have to work with so it has to be protected at all times. Do your research, make your daily trading plans, stick to those plans, stake sensibly, control losses and you will be fine. -
@leo-mantle Lee you place the multiple bets on bet365 up to the £100 and lay the bets on betfair.
I am sure that's how people do it.
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@martin-futter ive just read through it and in short you have to stake 100 at odds of 1.2 or above to get your 100 bet credit, but what i didnt realize is that bet credits are not returned to you with your winnings which i think is a bit of a con really.
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@leo-mantle can you screenshot me the terms and conditions?
