NFL Strategies
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Titans have drifted to 2.4 this morning and Colts into 1.7. This is probably down to the Colts twitter feed suggesting that all key players are fit for tonights match.
The early morning papers suggest Colts have better offensive weapons available for Wentz to target, but believe the match to be 50/50 and turnovers could be the difference maker.
Henry has averaged 120 rush yards v Colts over the last 6 matchups.I'm even happier now as the early betting reports show alot more money going on the Titans, especially at even better value than a few days ago.
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@matt-ayles seems a good shout Titans are better than the colt every day of the week. Henry is unstoppable at times and I’d take Tannehil over Wentz all day
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Why do the bookies hate the Titans?!
Colts lost to Titans in week 3, and both teams enjoy rushing (Titans are 1st, Colts 11th in league) but where Henry is an unstoppable train, Taylor is listed as questionable for Indi, and Hines the backup, is also listed as questionable.
Although Indi have a good rush defence, I feel the Titans have enough weapons available. Plus the Colts have playoff ambitions and their next 2 fixtures after Tenesssee are Jets and Jags who they may target more aggressively.
Therefore, in my opinion, the bookies have the odds wrong here. Currently 2.1 Titans v 1.85 Colts.
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@chris-osborne NFC so strong has been building that way for a while hasn't it. A lot of rumours around Pete Carroll now as well which would be a shame.
That will be a cracker, like you say for a change - way my baby going I'll be awake lol
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@ryan said in NFL Strategies:
Oh my lord Seattle!!
@ryan said in NFL Strategies:
Oh my lord Seattle!!
In a strong NFC West especially Rams and Cardinals and with Russ out looking like a down year for them
Thursday’s game looks a cracker for a change Cards v Packers
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@chris-osborne yeah I was hoping the Lions would go up 14 to see how the market reacted but as you rightly say its hardly moved.
As a result I have not entered anything and continue so observe. -
@matt-ayles And despite all that the lowest they've traded is 3.5 whereas Rams are still at 1.36
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Unbelievable, Lions go up early then go onside kick in the first quarter! That's hilarious. Even better that they recovered it.
Keep a close eye there as if they go up 2 scores there may be a good lay opportunity.Almost went 4 and out but go fake punt!! Incredible stuff from a team who are 0-6!
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@matt-ayles said in NFL Strategies:
@matt-ayles said in NFL Strategies:
I think the Titans offer a value position this week. They have started strongly, have a good H2H with KC and Henry is on fire at RB...
It will be high scoring as KC are poor at stopping the rush, but similarly the Titans are poor against the pass which will help Mahomes. The stats suggest to me that this will be an offensive battle. Both teams have the "we'll just score more than you" setup.
I am not saying they will definitely win but I predict a much tighter game than 1.46 v 3.00 suggests so there should be opportunities to green up after the half.
Titans 14 points up and into 1.46 so time to green up.
What a shout this was! Well done!!!
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@matt-ayles said in NFL Strategies:
I think the Titans offer a value position this week. They have started strongly, have a good H2H with KC and Henry is on fire at RB...
It will be high scoring as KC are poor at stopping the rush, but similarly the Titans are poor against the pass which will help Mahomes. The stats suggest to me that this will be an offensive battle. Both teams have the "we'll just score more than you" setup.
I am not saying they will definitely win but I predict a much tighter game than 1.46 v 3.00 suggests so there should be opportunities to green up after the half.
Titans 14 points up and into 1.46 so time to green up.
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I think the Titans offer a value position this week. They have started strongly, have a good H2H with KC and Henry is on fire at RB...
It will be high scoring as KC are poor at stopping the rush, but similarly the Titans are poor against the pass which will help Mahomes. The stats suggest to me that this will be an offensive battle. Both teams have the "we'll just score more than you" setup.
I am not saying they will definitely win but I predict a much tighter game than 1.46 v 3.00 suggests so there should be opportunities to green up after the half.
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@martin Browns could be one to warch they are 1.61 at home to Denver on Thursday but they are decimated by injuries - likely to be without both Chubb and Hunt. Mayfield and Beckham are also major doubts. Landry has also been out for a couple of weeks already.
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@martin said in NFL Strategies:
@martin said in NFL Strategies:
Chargers @ 2.42 vs Ravens - This should be evens for me
Cardinals @2.5+ vs Browns - Again this is a coin toss for me
Cowboys @1.58 vs New England - Marginal one here but I have this at 1.5 at best so slight value.
Bills @ 1.45 vs Titans - I'd have this at 1.33, Bills look the real deal.Chargers @ 2.42 vs Ravens - Lost -1pts
Cardinals @2.56 vs Browns - Won +1.53pts
Cowboys @1.58 vs New England - Won +0.56ptsBills @ 1.45 vs Titans Lost - 1pts
Small profit in the end.
Total Profit: 0.09pts
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@martin said in NFL Strategies:
Chargers @ 2.42 vs Ravens - This should be evens for me
Cardinals @2.5+ vs Browns - Again this is a coin toss for me
Cowboys @1.58 vs New England - Marginal one here but I have this at 1.5 at best so slight value.
Bills @ 1.45 vs Titans - I'd have this at 1.33, Bills look the real deal.Chargers @ 2.42 vs Ravens - Lost -0.74pts
Cardinals @2.56 vs Browns - Won +1.53pts
Cowboys @1.58 vs New England - Won +0.56ptsBills @ 1.45 vs Titans
Total with one game to play: +1.35pts
Freerolling the last bet essentially
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@matt-ayles said in NFL Strategies:
@martin what would your exit plan be?
I'm testing these just as outright backs, if they do well I will implement something next season to share advice.
