NFL Strategies
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@martin said in NFL Strategies:
Quite nice watching red zone not expecting a Dolphins defeat!
Oh dear. You've said it now.
I see others have already given excellent analysis of tonights key trading options. The only one I'd add is Steelers... I feel 1.44 is generous against the worst team in the NFL right now.
My approach here however would be to see out the first quarter, maybe the Lions get a good start and go up early, let the Steelers price drift a touch, then back them at around 1.7 or so.
If the Steelers lead throughout there will be no trade. -
@chris-osborne they’ll take some stopping now
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Other than the two games @Dan-Peacey highlighted, struggling to find much in the way of value in this week's games
The opportunities for me come from favourites which are priced too low: -
Bills 1.17 at Jets 6.6 - Bills should be the class of the AFC but they we're appalling last week at home to the Jags without scoring a single touchdown. Similar match up this week, 1.17 is far too low.
Cowboys 1.27 at home to Falcons 4.5 - Cowboys had a similar match up last week at home to Broncos and we're shocking. Hopefully a one off but the Falcons are a similar team to Broncos but they could cause them a lot of trouble especially if Ryan and Pitts click.
Browns 2-2 at Patriots 1.83 - first game Dan mentioned, Browns are without Chubb and Hunt but D'Ernest Johnson has stepped up to the plate. Browns had a good win last week at the Bengals who on there day are better than the PAtriots. Browns are wildely inconsistent but certainly worth backing
Chiefs 1.74 at Raiders 2.32 - looks like the market is slowly catching up to how overrated the Chiefs are and living off past glories. There offence is not clicking at all and I would expect the Raiders to win. This is the second game Dan mentioned.
Jags 5 at Colts 1.24 - Both teams with losing records yet Colts are strong favourites can only be home advantage but don't think there is that much between the teams other than Jonathan Taylor. For me Colts priced too low.
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The carnage continues Dolphins beating the Ravens didn’t see that one coming. Does no one in the AFC want to go to the Super Bowl.
In other news the Rams sign OBJ there receiving Corps was already explosive with Kupp, Woods and Jefferson is now off the charts. Matthew Stafford gone from one extreme at the Lions to all the talent in the world at the Rams.
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@dan-peacey good analysis there. Chiefs don't look amazing yet do they and Browns played really well last week.
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@chris-osborne said in NFL Strategies:
Having watched @Martin's video on value earlier today, had a look at this weekend's NFL schedule, there are a few games where I think teams are priced wrong: -
Falcons 3-4 price 3.4 at Saints 5-2 Price 1.4
If they hadn't lost Jameis Winston to an ACL last week I would have said these prices would be about right. I would not trust either Taysom Hill or Trevor Simien one bit. Saints may still win this but they should be around 1.8 for me. Possible lay of the Saints although will probablywait to see how they start
Raiders 62 Price 1.62 at Giants 2-6 Price 2.58
After the week the Raiders have had, with Ruggs destroying his career and facing a long jail sentence, I don't see them as clear favourites. If Giants hold onto the ball I would expect them to win this.
PAckers 7-1 Price 3.95 at Chiefs 4-4 1.33
All things being equal, would probably have PAckers as slight favourites against a struggling Chiefs. However, Rodgers is out for COVID reasons meaning Jordan Love starts his first game since being drafted last year having had very little playing time. Chiefs are priced too low but as with the Saints would be looking to see how this starts
Cardinals 7-1 2.46 @ 49ers 3-4 1.67
Someone needs to explain this one to me can only be bias towards the home team even with doubts about Deebo Samuel as I have the Cards winning easily
I have recently watched Martin's video also. I know that its Thursday and prices may yet move, I have found 2 potential games that I think the prices are wrong.
Browns 2.1 @ Pats - both have 5 4 records and is a coin toss.
Raiders 2.26 - Raiders 5 3, Chiefs 5 4, I have Raiders as slight favourites maybe 1.88What do you think? Will monitor prices over the next few days
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@stephen-oleary thanks probably beginners luck will have a look later in the week at the Sunday games, the Thursday Night game Should be an easy win for the Ravens. Sorry @martin although after this weekends carnage who knows
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@chris-osborne Great post! 3 from 4 and on your analysis of the packer vs chiefs if you saw the 1st qtr you would have backed chiefs all day. I watched the game and I couldn't believe i got 1.90 for under 44.5 TP at end of first qtr. Chiefs clearly aren't the same team as past couple of years.
Cant wait to see your next post great job. -
@chris-osborne said in NFL Strategies:
Having watched @Martin's video on value earlier today, had a look at this weekend's NFL schedule, there are a few games where I think teams are priced wrong: -
Falcons 3-4 price 3.4 at Saints 5-2 Price 1.4
If they hadn't lost Jameis Winston to an ACL last week I would have said these prices would be about right. I would not trust either Taysom Hill or Trevor Simien one bit. Saints may still win this but they should be around 1.8 for me. Possible lay of the Saints although will probablywait to see how they start
Raiders 62 Price 1.62 at Giants 2-6 Price 2.58
After the week the Raiders have had, with Ruggs destroying his career and facing a long jail sentence, I don't see them as clear favourites. If Giants hold onto the ball I would expect them to win this.
PAckers 7-1 Price 3.95 at Chiefs 4-4 1.33
All things being equal, would probably have PAckers as slight favourites against a struggling Chiefs. However, Rodgers is out for COVID reasons meaning Jordan Love starts his first game since being drafted last year having had very little playing time. Chiefs are priced too low but as with the Saints would be looking to see how this starts
Cardinals 7-1 2.46 @ 49ers 3-4 1.67
Someone needs to explain this one to me can only be bias towards the home team even with doubts about Deebo Samuel as I have the Cards winning easily
Outstanding!
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Cardinals look really decent regardless!
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@matt-ayles said in NFL Strategies:
Allegedly will take a miracle for Murray to start v 49ers...
Confirmed, both Murray and Hopkins out.
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Allegedly will take a miracle for Murray to start v 49ers...
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@martin with everything else going on this week Ruggs, Rodgers etc I completely missed the news about Murray
