100 DAYS OF VALUE: AN ASPIRING FOOTBALL TRADER'S JOURNEY
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I've been trading/betting on football for the last few years at a novice level, with limited success - mostly treading water with small wins and small losses. This "challenge" is as much about accountability and self-discipline as it is about improving results. Too many traders hop between systems, endlessly tweak strategies, and struggle to stick to one thing (myself included!!). I want to break that cycle.
I work full-time, I have a wife and two children under 12, and life can be busy. That means while I'll be as committed as possible to this challenge, it won't always be 100% possible. But I'll show up, stay consistent, and see where this journey takes me. My long-term goal isn't to quit my job, but to eventually supplement my income through football trading - enough to reduce the need for overtime and to create more financial flexibility. I want to be earning £1,000 to £2,000 per month on average from football trading within 5 years.
For the next 100 days, I'll be sharing my journey using two structured, data-driven systems. Since September 2023, my In-Play Half-Time System has tracked over 1,600 matches across 25+ leagues, focusing on second-half goal markets when a game is 0-0 at half-time. My Pre-Match System has tracked over 3,000 matches from 50+ leagues, identifying value in goal markets (over/under 2.5, 3.5 etc.) and full-time results, along with many other major markets.
Each morning (where possible), I'll post potential selections based on the data, with final picks shared 10-15 minutes before kick-off. Weekends will be quieter due to time constraints, but I'll aim for consistency during the week.
This is a test of discipline, patience, and trust in the numbers. Feel free to follow along, ask questions, and let's see where 100 days (or more?!) takes us.
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Friday 28/03/25 (Day 38)
Potential selections today come from the following:-
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon v Hapoel Nof HaGalil (1pm) - this was a LTD and SHG goal trade, ended 1-1 after being 0-0 @ HT so the latter won but the former lost, although it could’ve been traded for a small profit which is something I’m very much looking to do going forward. Volume and liquidity was very poor though so may be a league I’ll be leaving alone in future.
Aalborg v Viborg (6pm) - over 2.5, home lay, lay under under 1.5 and SHG trades all popped up for this one. I obviously didn’t get involved in them all but the home lay and over 2.5 both proved profitable as it ended 0-4.
Red Star v Rodez (7pm) - lay the draw in the first-half and SHG trades came up for this game and although they were both losers (1-1 @ HT and no SHG), there was plenty of opportunity to trade for a good profit in the first half.
MVV Maastricht v Emmen (7pm) - no bet.
Eindhoven v Helmond (7pm) - this came up as a LTD trade and ended 2-2 so a loser if left to run but could easily have taken profit in the second half .
Amstettan v Rapid Wien II (5pm) - no bet.
Cerezo Osaka v Urawa Reds (10am) - lay home trade which came in thanks to a late second half equaliser. 1-1.
Barry v Newtown (7:45pm) - lay the first half draw and BTTS were both successful bets/trades in this game. 2-1.
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Thursday 27/03/25 (Day 37):-
Home win bet tonight at 11:30pm in Chile between Everton and Universidad Chile. Home odds need to be 5.0 or lower (currently around 4.2ish last time I checked) and over 2.5 goals odds below evens 15 mins pre-kick off
2-0 @ 4.90 odds Also looking at laying the draw and BTTS pre-match in the Ayacucho v Melgar game (8:30pm kick off). Draw lay odds need to be 4.80 or lower 15 mins pre-KO (currently 4.40) to be eligible and over 2.5 goals must NOT be higher than the morning price (1.90) for BTTS to get the green light.
Odds drifted on the overs so BTTS was a no bet. Draw lay price was 3.95 and the game finished 2-3 Busy few days coming now we've got proper football back; BRING. IT. ON!
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Thursday 20/3/25 (DAY 36):-
No bets/trades for today.
Quick update during the quiet (infuriating) international break - I'm still fully committed to my trading and my strategies, but I've realised I need to step back slightly from the journaling side of things. Between family, kids, a full-time job and everything else that life has to offer, I don't have the time to track every detail like I was before and then have to share it here on this page.
Nothing has changed with my setup or approach, the following strategies continue to run: (pre-match) lay the draw, over 2.5 goals, first and second-half goals, home wins, and a couple of lay strategies in the under 1.5 and home win markets, alongside the in-play system which looks for value at half-time when the score is 0-0. The dataset remains the same and since starting this "diary", it has helped me realise the need to streamline my process to make it more manageable long-term (something that I've already implemented within the first 30 days).
The main difference is that my updates will be less detailed. I won't be tracking individual bet stats like average odds, strike rates or game-by-game breakdowns but instead I'll look to provide regular (weekly) performance overviews so I can still look back on this and assess my progress.
Everything is still going on in the background, but I need to be realistic about my time if I want to sustain this for the full 100 days (and beyond). I'll still be posting, just in a more condensed format.
Cheers.
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Friday 14/3/25:-
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Tuesday 11/3/25:-
Cheltenham and a busy work week so will have to trawl through this at the weekend or early next week to see how things went!
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Monday 10/3/25:-
Follow instructions below for each strategy and only place bet if the game fits within these parameters and over 2.5 goals is below 2.0 odds 10-15 prior to kick off.
1-1 @ HT
Lay odds too high (5.30)
3-3
Odds drifted so no bet. 0-1
Odds drifted so no bet. 0-1
Over 2.5 odds above 2.0 so shouldn't have been included anyway. Finished 5-1! -
This post is deleted!
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Friday 07/03/25 (DAY 31) continued:-
POTENTIAL SELECTIONS
(All pre-match filtering has been carried out based on the model's data, so there will only be one or two final checks 10-15 mins pre-KO for the following):-
-ALIANZA UNIVERSIDAD v DEPORTIVO GARCILASO (6pm). Back home win @ 2.46 // 0-0
(-1)Lay the draw pre kick-off if lay odds are 4.80 or less:
-ALIANZA UNIVERSIDAD v DEPORTIVO GARCILASO (6pm) @ 3.65 // 0-0 (-2.65)
-HELMOND SPORT v MVV MAASTRICHT (7pm) @ 3.95 // 4-0 (+0.98)
-FC EINDHOVEN v VITESSE (7pm) @ 4.1 // 3-3 (-3.10)
-TOP OSS v FC VOLENDAM (7pm) @ 4.3 // 0-2 (+0.98)-Osnabruck v Wehen (0-0 @ HT) Over 1.5 goals @ 3.0. Huge value in a single goal also // 0-1
(-1)-Slask Wrocław v Pogon Szczecin (0-0 @ HT) Under 1.5 goals @ 1.86 // 1-1
(-1) -
Friday 07/03/25 (DAY 31):-
TOTALS
OVERALL: 27/57 @ 47.37% SR (-1.23 points) Average odds: 2.28/Average win odds: 2.12
IN-PLAY: 19/36 @ 52.78% (+3.70 points) Average odds: 2.28/Average win odds: 2.15
PRE-MATCH: 8/21 @ 38.10% (-4.93 points) Average odds: 2.26/Average win odds: 2.05
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
The last couple of days have been quiet, but I’ve used that downtime to go through my data and attempt to streamline my process. I’m not changing my approach, so everything will still come from the same data and model, but the aim is to make it less time-consuming and thus more sustainable in the long run.
Right now, I rely on notifications 15-20 minutes before kick-off to check the odds, enter them into my model, and determine if a bet is value. This takes time, and a lot of the time, the bet isn’t value. To make this easier, I’ve grouped certain leagues into subsets based on what they perform well in:-
• Home Wins
• Lay the Draw
• Over 2.5 Goals
• Lay Under 1.5 Goals
• Lay Over 3.5 Goals
• First Half Goals
• Second Half GoalsFor each subset, I’ve identified leagues that consistently perform well. For example, I’ve got 10 leagues that are currently strong for first-half goals and 18 for second-half goals. This allows me to check the data earlier in the day (some time between 8-10am), create a shortlist for each subset, and have a clearer idea of where the value is before notifications come through. Unless the odds change dramatically, these selections are more likely to be value, reducing the need for last-minute (time-consuming) data checks.
These systems and leagues will be dynamic because trends change over time. Every 3–6 months, I’ll review and adjust them, removing leagues that are no longer working well and adding any that have emerged as consistent performers. The core approach stays the same, but this ensures I keep up with market trends without making constant unnecessary tweaks.
This refined process should make things more efficient and easier to sustain, helping me stick with this long term. From now on, I’ll update and check the data first thing to create a shortlist, and review it again in the afternoon or evening to update selections for games later that day/the following morning.
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Wednesday 05/03/25 (DAY 30):-
Nothing likely from the pre-match model as things stand, but there should be a relatively decent amount of action this Friday depending on the odds and perceived value.
Possible in-play bets at half-time if 0-0 and showing value in just a couple of the lunchtime games from Turkey 1. Lig and Indonesia Liga 1 today.
BET 1: Corum Belediyespor v Boluspor (0-0 @ HT) Under 1.5 goals @ 1.70 odds // 0-2
(-1 point) -
Tuesday 04/03/25 (DAY 29):-
-Updating the morning after due to lack of time last night!
Over 1.5 goals (0-0 at HT) in the following:-
Millwall v Bristol City @ 3.10 odds // 0-2
(+2.06 pts)Colchester v Chesterfield @ 3.10 // 1-0
(-1 pt)Port Vale v Harrogate Town @ 3.0 odds // 0-0
(-1 pt)Tamworth FC v Wealdstone @ 3.0 odds // 4-1
(+1.96 pts)2 winners from 4 bets giving a total profit of +2.02 points for the day.
TOTALS
OVERALL: 27/56 @ 48.21% SR (-0.23 points) Average odds: 2.29/Average win odds: 2.12
IN-PLAY: 19/35 @ 54.29% (+4.70 points) Average odds: 2.30/Average win odds: 2.15
PRE-MATCH: 8/21 @ 38.10% (-4.93 points) Average odds: 2.26/Average win odds: 2.05
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Monday 03/03/25 (DAY 28):-
Fairly busy weekend with a few bets/trades placed that I haven't tracked on here, so I won't be after-timing and adding them now despite some moderate success. As for today, I'd imagine it'll go back to being fairly quiet again as often seems to be the way with these models, particularly on the pre-match side.
Might be some action in the following leagues if 0-0 at HT and showing value:-
Romania Liga 1, Poland Ekstraklasa, Spain La Liga 2, Turkey Super Lig, Dutch Eerste, Portugal Segunda, Indonesia Liga 1 and Israel Leumit.
TOTALS
OVERALL: 25/52 @ 48.08% SR (-2.25 points) Average odds: 2.23/Average win odds: 2.05
IN-PLAY: 17/31 @ 54.84% (+2.68 points) Average odds: 2.21/Average win odds: 2.05
PRE-MATCH: 8/21 @ 38.10% (-4.93 points) Average odds: 2.26/Average win odds: 2.05
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Friday 28/02/25 (DAY 27):-
There are a few potential selections on the pre-match tonight, but most of the action will likely come from the in-play tool if it's 0-0 at half-time and showing value from certain matches across the following leagues:-
Germany (Bundesliga 2 and 3 Liga), Poland Ekstraklasa, Dutch Eerste, Turkey 1 Lig, Saudi Pro League, France Ligue 2 and Israel Leumit Liga.
BET 1: Hapoel Kfar Saba v Hapoel Umm Al Fahm (0-0 @ HT) Over 1.5 goals @ 2.66 odds (value in a single goal also) 2-0
+1.63BET 2: Pau v Grenoble (0-0 @ HT) Under 1.5 goals @ 1.75 odds 1-0
+0.74 -
Thursday 27/02/25 (DAY 26):-
Typical Thursday with very little action. One potential half-time bet at the moment is Barrow v Carlisle, if 0-0 at half-time and showing value.
TOTALS
OVERALL: 23/50 @ 46% SR (-4.62 points) Average odds: 2.23/Average win odds: 2.04
IN-PLAY: 15/29 @ 51.72% (+0.31 points) Average odds: 2.21/Average win odds: 2.03
PRE-MATCH: 8/21 @ 38.10% (-4.93 points) Average odds: 2.26/Average win odds: 2.05
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Wednesday 26/02/25 (DAY 25):-
Looking quiet again today; only Tottenham v City being an in-play possibility as things stand.
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Tuesday 25/02/25 (DAY 24):-
TOTALS
OVERALL: 23/50 @ 46% SR (-4.62 points) Average odds: 2.23/Average win odds: 2.04
IN-PLAY: 15/29 @ 51.72% (+0.31 points) Average odds: 2.21/Average win odds: 2.03
PRE-MATCH: 8/21 @ 38.10% (-4.93 points) Average odds: 2.26/Average win odds: 2.05
TODAY:-
Likely nothing again tonight from the pre-match model.
Just the two in-play possibilities at Brighton and Wolves tonight if 0-0 at half-time and showing value, although other selections may pop up later on.
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!UPDATE! - Monday 24/02/25 (DAY 23):-
Half-term week was very busy with family life, so I could only post bits and pieces here and there. I've updated my latest figures, as a lot of my tracking over the last week was done on the fly. Now that I'm back at work and into the swing of things again, I can focus properly for a while.
One key thing I've realised is that I probably don't have as much time as I initially thought for trading, especially on busy weekends. I'll continue the 100 day challenge as planned, but I'm definitely leaning towards finding a set-and-forget pre-match strategy, something I can place all at once, maybe around 10am on a Saturday, and just leave them to run without needing to check in throughout the day.
Results-wise, both my in-play and pre-match systems are slightly down, but nothing disastrous. The pre-match is about 5 points down, and the in-play is just over 1 point in the minus after around 50 bets. It's far too early to make any strong conclusions, this challenge is about testing, refining and figuring out what works best for me.
But more importantly, this is about proving whether or not my models work - whether the value displayed within my system translates into long-term success. Constantly tweaking or changing my approach over the 100 days would undermine that. This is as much a test of me, my discipline, and my ability to stick to a consistent approach as it is a test of the system itself. If I keep adjusting things, I won't know if the model works or not - that would be on me, not the system. So, for the full 100 days, I need to stay disciplined, trust the process, ignore the financial aspect, and see it through properly.
TOTALS:-
OVERALL: 22/49 @ 44.90% SR (-6.23 points) Average odds: 2.23/Average win odds: 2.01
IN-PLAY: 14/28 @ 50% (-1.30 points) Average odds: 2.19/Average win odds: 1.99
PRE-MATCH: 8/21 @ 38.10% (-4.93 points) Average odds: 2.26/Average win odds: 2.05
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TODAY:-
Doubt there'll be much happening using the pre-match model tonight, but we might see some in-play action at half-time in Poland, Spain, Israel and Saudi Arabia if 0-0 and showing value.
BET 1: Damac v Al Orubah (0-0 @ HT) over 1.5 goals @ 2.64 odds // 1-2
(+1.61) -
@Alex-Rendell Opps, apologies, and I expect 10% commission if you use it!
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@Nikki-HALSALL wrong thread.....although you might've posted a rare winner in here
